Semis and Memory Go Parabolic
Weekly Outlook 05/11/26
Market Recap
Last week we left off saying the megacap earnings clearing event was behind us and the market looked set up to continue higher. That’s exactly what we got. The S&P 500 closed up 2.3% on the week, the Nasdaq up 4.5%, both printing fresh all-time highs into Friday’s close at 7,399 and 26,247. The Dow nudged up a token 12 points to 49,609. This was the sixth consecutive weekly gain for the indices, the longest winning streak since 2024, and the dispersion between the Dow and the Nasdaq tells you exactly where the money is going.
The week did not start cleanly. Monday opened with Iran striking a South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting the geopolitical tail risk that had been quietly fading from the tape. The S&P slid 0.4%, the Dow dropped 1.1%, and VIX spiked 7.65% to 18.29. By Wednesday, Axios reported the U.S. and Iran were nearing a deal including a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, and the response was immediate. The S&P jumped 1.46%, the Nasdaq ripped 2.02%, WTI cratered nearly 9% to around $93, and Brent fell 7.7%.
Under the hood, semis and memory continued their vertical move. SMH popped over 3% to a new 52-week high, with Friday alone delivering Micron +13%, Qualcomm +9%, and AMD +8%. AMD was the standout of the week, up 20% to cross $700 billion in market cap on a clean Q1 print, and now up nearly 90% over the past month. The memory complex $SNDK, $MU as well as semis like $INTC have continued their ascent and are now flirting with parabolic territory.
Catalysts Over the Last Week
As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.
Mega AI Capex / Hyperscaler Deals
$NBIS | Nebius-Microsoft deal, upfront prepayment pegged at ~40% of TCV ($6.95B on $17.39B contract value). Massive expansion of the Microsoft compute relationship, follows the Eigen AI acquisition from last week.
$GOOG / $GOOGL | The Information reported Anthropic commits to spending $200B on Google’s cloud and chips. Major TPU validation, huge Alphabet tailwind.
$AAPL / $INTC | WSJ reported Friday that Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary chip-making agreement. Big domestic semi story, reinforces the Intel turnaround thesis from prior weeks.
Earnings That Mattered
$AMD | Forecasts quarterly revenue above expectations on AI chip demand. Reported Tuesday.
$AAON | Record Q1 sales and backlog, raised full-year guide. Data center HVAC tailwind.
$RKLB | Q1 surpassed all guidance metrics, plus $30M HASTE hypersonic contract from Anduril.
$CRWV | Widened Q1 loss as costs outpaced revenue growth. The data center print we were watching from last week, did not deliver.
$DOCN | Q1 revenue $258M (+22% YoY), beat estimates.
$STRL | Record Q1, raised full-year 2026 guidance.
AI Infrastructure / Data Centers
$IREN | Acquisition of Mirantis to strengthen AI cloud delivery capabilities, plus AI cloud platform expansion to Europe.
$NVDA / $GLW | Long-term partnership to strengthen US manufacturing for AI infrastructure.
$AKAM | Frontier model provider committed $1.8B over seven years for Akamai’s Cloud Inference platform.
$DGXX | Digi Power X AI colocation agreement, 40 MW data center in Columbiana.
$FLEX | Plans to spin off power and cloud infrastructure business into a separate public company by Q1 2027.
Macro
Iran Deal | White House nearing one-page MOU with Iran to halt fighting. War pause and nuclear talks. Major macro overlay.
Meme / Special Situation
$GME / $EBAY | GameStop preparing offer for eBay confirmed Monday. Then Michael Burry sells all GameStop stock per WSJ. Two-sided story.
Stablecoin / Crypto Regulation
$CRCL | Circle jumps 16% on Clarity Act compromise that preserves stablecoin rewards.
Watchlist
Memory and Semis
The memory and semi complex stays top of the watchlist as it approaches parabolic territory. The ideal setup from here is another two days of range expansion that finally capitulates the move, giving us a clean exhaustion signal. The risk is that these names are already extended enough to reverse without ever giving us the textbook setup, so they stay on permawatch with the focus on intraday signals. The tell will be gap exhaustion off the open, any change of character that breaks the trend, or names getting sold under VWAP and failing to reclaim.
$MU, $SNDK | The clear leaders of the memory move, both in advanced extension.
$INTC, $AMD, $SOXL | Semi side of the same story.
DRAM | ETF for memory stocks that includes SK Hynix
If semis don’t immediately reverse to start the week, NVTS 0.00%↑ could be a name to watch for a breakout off its base.
Space
$RKLB had a major breakout day Friday post-earnings, emerging from a daily cup and handle base into fresh all-time highs - bought this Friday for a swing trade. With the SpaceX IPO expected later in the summer, the space sector remains a high-priority theme for breakouts and sympathy plays in the smaller names.
$SATS, $SATL, $ASTS, $RDW | Sympathy names for the broader space theme. All on watch for follow-through if $RKLB continues to lead.
Data Centers
The data center group reported with mixed reactions last week. $CRWV widened its Q1 loss as costs outpaced revenue growth, which was not the print we wanted given how cleanly it bounced from $100 the prior week. $IREN was more constructive with the Mirantis acquisition and the European AI cloud expansion. $NBIS reports this week, with the recently announced $17.39B Microsoft contract and the Eigen AI acquisition both in the price now. That print sets the tone for whether the group can re-establish leadership or whether the post-earnings reactions stay choppy.
$CRWV, $IREN | Both reported. Watching for price action follow-through over the coming sessions.
$NBIS | Reports this week. Important data center print given the leadership it’s been displaying in the group.
AI / Earnings Breakouts
A handful of names emerged from earnings with clean technical setups worth pressing.
$AKAM | Major stage 1 earnings breakout, with the announcement that a leading U.S. frontier model provider has committed $1.8B over seven years to its Cloud Inference platform. Clean breakout from a long base on a high-quality fundamental catalyst.
$RXT | Small cap momentum off the Rackspace-AMD memorandum of understanding establishing a new category of governed AI infrastructure.
$CBRS | Cerebras IPO this week, one of the most anticipated AI listings of the year. On watch for the debut.
$DGXX, $WYFI | Adjacent names with Cerebras business exposure. $DGXX signed an AI colocation agreement for a 40 MW data center in Columbiana last week, $WYFI provides the cooling and infrastructure layer for Cerebras deployments. Both on watch as sympathy plays into the IPO.
Exhaustion Watch
$DXYZ | After capturing a clean swing on this name, now in exhaustion watch territory. Watching for a gap up on Monday.
Valckrie@Valckrie$DXYZ amazing move, did exactly what I thought it would just like it's stock character history suggested After a brief red day it went on to do another 3 day momentum burst Gap up on Monday likely means short term exhaustion and a short trade Unfortunately I sold down to 10%
Valckrie @Valckrie$DXYZ took some profit on the swing today This stock loves to go on 3-4 day momentum bursts that end with an exhaustion gap It hasn't truly gone parabolic here just yet, one scenario is a flag type continuation like December 2024, which would align with another run into the https://t.co/M0MkOdyJjQ8:03 PM · May 8, 2026 · 5.55K Views3 Replies · 51 Likes
Earnings to Watch This Week
$CRCL
$HIMS
$ASTS
$RGTI
$OKLO
$NBIS
$CSCO
$ONDS
$FIG
Closing Thoughts
The leadership names carrying the tape, $SNDK, $MU, $INTC, $AMD, are now in majorly extended territory. I wrote a piece breaking down what happened to the winning stocks of 2024 after $NVDA and $SMCI topped that year, which also had similar parabolic rallies.
The question this week remains whether these names reverse, and what happens to the rest of the market if and when they do. Either the broader tape gets pulled into a digestion phase with them, or rotation continues and the post-earnings breakouts hold up as the next leg of leadership. Both are live scenarios and worth being more cautious here than we have been over the past few weeks.
If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: