Record Highs, Record Streak in the Nasdaq. What's Next?
Weekly Outlook 04/20/26
Market Recap
Last week I flagged that the reaction to the gap down was the most important thing to watch. The reaction was extremely bullish, and markets rallied all week to fresh all time highs. I’ve been cautiously bullish since two weeks ago, but even I was surprised by the extent of the strength.
The S&P 500 finished the week up 4.5%, its best weekly performance since May 2025 and a third consecutive weekly gain, marking the longest winning streak since October. Friday’s closes were SPX 7,126, Dow 49,447, Nasdaq 24,468, and Russell 2000 2,776. The standout number was on the Nasdaq Composite, which notched its 13th straight green session to close out the week, the longest streak of its kind since 1992. Momentum readings pushed into the top 1% of historical distributions:
CTAs have flipped to buyers:
The VIX collapsed to 17.48 by Friday, well off the 11 month high printed back in March. Every lens you look through points the same direction.
The weekend brought a different set of headlines. On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial traffic, and oil sold off hard in response. WTI dropped 11.5% to $83.78 and Brent fell 10.8% to $88.67. Over the weekend that story reversed, with reports the Strait had closed again after agreements were not upheld. News flow has been back and forth with a lot of noise, and it’s fair to say the situation remains fluid into the open.
The tape is due a pullback regardless of what Iran does next. After a run like this, digestion is the base case, not the risk. Whether this weekend’s headlines end up being the catalyst or just background noise is what the first couple of sessions this week will tell us.
Catalysts Over the Last Week
As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.
AI Infrastructure
$CRWV: Jane Street signed a $6 billion AI cloud agreement with CoreWeave. Validates CoreWeave as a tier one counterparty for the most demanding compute users and a meaningful read through for the whole neocloud bucket.
$BE / $ORCL: Expanded partnership to deploy up to 2.8 GW of power for AI infrastructure buildout. Reinforces the energy for compute thesis running through natural gas, nuclear, and fuel cells.
$CRDO: Acquired DustPhotonics, expanding into silicon photonics and next gen optical connectivity. Optical remains the pick and shovel trade under the AI compute trade.
$AEHR: Received a record $41M production order from its lead hyperscale customer for package level burn in of custom AI chips. Custom silicon validation at scale.
$AVGO: Extended partnership with Meta to support multi gigawatts of AI infrastructure. Custom silicon theme reinforced at the highest level.
$BIRD: Executed a $50M convertible facility and announced expansion into AI compute. Small name, but telling that legacy consumer brands are pivoting into the compute narrative to chase a multiple.
Space and Satellite
$AMZN / $GSAT: Signed an $11.57B deal for satellite services, positioning Kuiper as a direct Starlink competitor. Big headline for $GSAT and the broader satellite ecosystem.
Regulatory and Market Structure
$HOOD / $BULL: Popped after the SEC approved FINRA’s plan to replace the PDT rule. Genuinely big deal for retail broker economics and volume. $HOOD is the cleanest way to play it.
$HIMS: Jumped on news the U.S. is moving forward with plans to reassess popular peptides. GLP-1 adjacent regulatory tailwind.
Earnings
$NFLX: Beat Q1 but shares slid on soft guidance plus a co founder exit. Character test for mega cap tech earnings.
Watchlist
There are an abundance of strong uptrending charts and strong themes this week, too many to cover in a single post. I keep a fully updated watchlist inside the Valhalla Portal, along with the screening presets and tools to find these setups in real time.
For this section I’ll focus on the more actionable setups going into the week, rather than charts that are already extended and uptrending (like $INTC).
Given the extreme strength of the tape and the fact that we’ve just exited a correction, I think it’s more likely we see shorter consolidation flags rather than lengthy new bases. My base case is to treat any first pullback to the 10ema as a valid buy spot in the strongest names (think $NBIS type action).
Data Centers
$NBIS, $CRWV: The two largest data center pure plays on the board. Looking to buy the first pullback after last week’s strong upthrust.
$CIFR, $WULF: Already had their pullback to the 10ema and look to be setting up for new highs.
$BZAI: Microcap name that caught a bid on data center news last week.
Tech
$GOOGL, $MRVL: Both had news over the weekend but the charts are already extended.
$ARM: Major news a couple of weeks ago, needs to clear the big daily base over $180. Could be starting its move here.
$MU, $SNDK: Likely building out some consolidation before the next leg. Memory remains a strong sector.
$BE: News gap and hold of the $200 area will be the key tell for continuation.
Quantum
$XNDU, $INFQ, $IONQ: All had large moves last week and are due pullbacks. Could be potential short trades this week.
$CRML: Caught news last week on heavy volume, worth watching.
Others
$MSTR: Large move Friday alongside BTC, remains the cleanest proxy.
$AVEX: IPO’d Friday, worth adding to the radar for early action.
Plenty of other charts worth watching that I haven’t detailed here. Optical computing remains a strong theme with $LITE, $AAOI, and $LWLG all setting up well. Space stocks continue to lead, $RKLB broke out on Thursday while $LUNR and $PL are already in established uptrends. $HOOD also one to keep close on the PDT rule catalyst. Many more charts could also become actionable as the week develops.
Closing Thoughts
The tape has done exactly what the strongest markets do. It absorbed a gap down, reclaimed the loss, and then extended to fresh all time highs on broadening participation. A 13 session Nasdaq streak, CTAs flipping to buyers, VIX back into the 17s, and top 1% momentum readings all point the same direction. Medium and longer term, the setup is as constructive as it’s been all year.
Short term is where it gets more interesting. After a run like this, some digestion is the base case rather than the risk. The Hormuz headlines over the weekend may or may not be the catalyst, but the tape was due a breather regardless. That’s why the watchlist above leans into first pullback setups rather than chasing names that are already extended. In the strongest names, a pullback to the 10ema is a gift rather than a warning.
My job this week is to stay patient on the already extended leaders, stay ready on the names setting up shorter consolidation flags, and let the market tell me which themes want to take the next leg. Data centers, memory, space, and optical all have the structure to keep leading.
Stay focused on where the opportunity sets up for the next leg.
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: