Market Recap
Last week we said the test was whether the indices could hold a higher low and then take out the prior week’s highs. Both confirmed, with $SPY printing a new all time high and $QQQ recovering much of the July drawdown.
Whatever the macro opinion, an index at all time highs is not a bearish chart. Every major index is now in an uptrend and sitting above key moving averages. The base case from here should be that a new uptrend has begun until the tape says otherwise.
The internals are where it gets interesting. $MAGS led early in the week, then software took over from midweek. $PLTR was the engine there, ripping 29.5% Tuesday on a blowout quarter and a big guidance raise, dragging the whole enterprise software group with it.
Semis lagged on a relative basis. The group rallied, but off a base so damaged by July that a strong week barely dents the repair job, and $SOX remains a long way from its highs while $SPY prints new ones. Memory stayed under pressure throughout. $SNDK and $WDC both sold off despite beating, and $MU faded again into Friday. The relative weakness here is now notable during last weeks market rally.
Korea has a similar picture, despite the record reversal that closed out July, $KOSPI is technically in a bear market after drawing down -45% from all time highs.
Most telling of all, the AI infrastructure names Aschenbrenner’s book was force fed into last week began to fade after the initial snapback. Sharp mechanical bounce, then supply. The overall sector also remains relative weak compared to other groups for now.
Watchlist
The hyperscaler slate is behind us, but the calendar is still busy with the popular growth and AI names. $RKLB, $ASTS and $HIMS report Monday after the close, $SMCI and $CRWV Tuesday, $NBIS Wednesday morning with $CBRS after the bell. Plenty of room for single stock volatility even with the index in a clean uptrend.
Worth flagging away from equities: gold and silver both broke out of a compressed six week range to the upside, with gold posting its best week since January. Both are still countertrend rallies underneath the longer term moving averages, so treat them as such until the structure says otherwise.
$PLTR Strength off the earnings gap. Already rallied alot after earnings so not really a fresh buy here.
$CBRS IPO base building, but reports Wednesday after the close. Earnings could resolve the base into a breakout.
$SPCX Stopped going down on the first unlock date, which is the tell. Momentum has turned upwards for now.
$MU Pivot break around $930, but a weak group and heavy overhead supply. Best chart in an overall weak sector.
$HPE Relative strength name, broke out over $50 and retested this week.
$AVGO Breakout over $400 and trending. Nothing to do but hold it while it works.
$HTZ Post earnings rally with real short interest behind it, 28% of float, and retail speculation potentially.
$AXTI Moving on the China datacenter component ban story along with other optical computing stocks.
$MRVL Four day range, potential break to the upside.
$NBIS Reports Wednesday morning. Burry is short. A higher low plus a pivot break over $230 puts it back in an uptrend.
$SOUN Delayed earnings reaction. The speculative bid is back in parts of this market and this is one of the places it shows up.
$IONQ Countertrend rally across quantum, with the whole group still under its major moving averages.
$DELL Relative strength, but a failed breakout earlier in the week left a loose consolidation.
$IREN Turning around, still under the longer term averages.
$AEHR, $UMAC, CRDO 0.00%↑ some other technical charts of interest.
Closing Thoughts
$SPY at all time highs is by definition bullish, and the strongest signal this market has given in months. $QQQ has not confirmed with a new high of its own, with semis being the reason for the drag. That weakness is worth respecting, and a sign to focus on the rotation into other groups leading the market instead of trying to force an uprend in weak sectors, such as memory and AI infrastructure for now.
If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: