Iran Deal Unlocks the Next Leg
Weekly Outlook 05/26/26
Market Recap
Last week we flagged the market as taking a breather and the potential start of a consolidation. The week opened heavy on bond yields. The 30-year broke out to 5.2% on Tuesday, the highest level since 2007, as the market priced in sticky inflation, a new Fed chair, and the ongoing Iran overhang. Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday, with traders now betting on zero cuts for the remainder of 2026 and a non-trivial probability of a hike. That bond move pulled equities lower into midweek.
NVDA reported Wednesday after close and delivered another stellar quarter. The board approved an additional $80B buyback and raised the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25. The stock pulled back marginally as has been the way for the last few quarters, especially after rallying into the print.
Multiple headlines through the back half of the week pointed toward an imminent Iran resolution, and the market started grinding back. Over the weekend a framework deal was reported between the U.S. and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With cash markets closed Monday for Memorial Day, the reaction played out in futures: Nasdaq futures up 1.4% and printing fresh all-time highs, ES up 1%, WTI down over 6% to roughly $90.
The IPO pipeline is also filling up. SpaceX confirmed its filing targeting the June 12 listing under $SPCX, and OpenAI is now rumored to file in the coming weeks.
Watchlist
The market has been strong and there’s a wide spread of themes working right now, from semis to optical computing, space, data centers and their adjacents including renewable energy. The full watchlist would be too long to walk through here and lives in the Valhalla Portal, but here are some notable ones I’m watching into next week.
Semis
Semis remain one of the key leading sectors in the market. $SOXX held the 20 EMA on the daily almost to the tick and is back near highs, which is exactly the kind of constructive digestion we wanted to see after the parabolic stretch.
$AMD | One of the leading semis. Broke out to fresh all-time highs last week on the ongoing CPU story, holding up cleanly despite $NVDA’s entrance into the CPU market.
$SNDK, $MU | On watch as both bounce back after recent pullbacks.
$MXL | Hasn’t given much back, consolidating tightly near highs.
Quantum
The other big sector move of the week. The Trump administration announced $2B in CHIPS Act grants across nine quantum computing companies in exchange for minority equity stakes, putting the sector squarely on the table as a strategic priority alongside semis, nuclear, and rare earths.
$IBM | $1B grant to build Anderon, America’s first purpose-built quantum foundry, plus IBM committing another $1B in cash. However the stock remains under the long term 200-SMA
$GFS | $375M for domestic quantum chip manufacturing capacity. Same theme on the foundry side, but stock is at all time highs.
$INFQ, $RGTI, $QBTS | The speculative end. Each receiving ~$100M, all posted multi-day rallies. Large intraday ranges and strong liquidity make these clean trading vehicles into next week.
Data Centers / Neoclouds
$NBIS | Rallied Thursday on a price target hike, continues to digest recent strength. Still the clear leader.
$APLD | Hit a data center milestone Thursday and printed a new high.
$CIFR, $IREN | Both have been in long weekly bases that could break in the near term. These are the names to watch for the next rotation up.
$HIVE | New Canadian data center catalyst, with Leopold Aschenbrenner (popular growth investor) taking a position.
$HUT | Still on watch after digesting around the $100 mark post earnings gap.
Power
Fuel cells and renewable energy have been a strong theme as power constraints remain a structural bottleneck for the data center buildout. This is the picks-and-shovels angle on the AI infrastructure trade.
$BE, $FCEL, $BLDP | All had strong rallies last week and require some digestion.
FLNC 0.00%↑ had a major earnings move but has since pulled back and is potentially forming a higher low.
Space
With the SpaceX IPO confirmed for June 12, the space complex saw broad strength last week as sympathy bids start to filter in.
$RKLB | Gapped down on the announcement of a $3B ATM, but seemingly didn’t tap it. Recovered the drop and pushed to fresh all-time highs on a $89.5M Space Force satellite contract.
$ASTS | The SpaceX competitor angle but has been up 2 strong days already.
$RDW | New highs.
$DXYZ | Closed end fund that holds SpaceX, has been seeing strong momentum.
Other space stocks can be found in the Valhalla Portal theme watchlists:
Finally it’s worth noting that /CL crude oil futures gapped down on Monday after the Iran peace deal news and could be breaking the 50-SMA for the first time since the war started.
Closing Thoughts
Heading into the week with the Iran peace deal looming, crude breaking down, and the market gapping to all-time highs, the digestion from last week was resolved quickly to the upside - another sign of the incredible strength in this tape.
Breakouts have been working across the board, but it’s still prudent to take proper entries rather than chase extended rallies. Plenty of charts look constructive heading in, and there’s no doubt we’ll see more interesting developments across the AI space over the week.
If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: