Historic Run in Semis - Time To Digest? Hyperscalers on Deck
Weekly Outlook 04/27/26
Market Recap
Last week, we left off asking what happens next after the 13-session Nasdaq streak and the best weekly return for the S&P since last May. The answer this week was deceptively quiet at the index level. From Monday through Thursday, SPY traded in one of the tightest consolidation ranges we have seen in months. Five sessions of sideways grinding, barely a 1% pullback inside the range, no real selling pressure into the geopolitical noise. That kind of price action is textbook bullish digestion. By Friday’s close, the S&P was at 7,165 and the Nasdaq at 24,837, both fresh record highs, with the Dow the lone laggard down 0.4% on the week as cyclicals and industrials trailed the tech tape.
The main story this week was semiconductors. Intel reported Thursday night and ripped 25% on Friday to a new all-time high, surpassing its dot-com era record after more than two decades. Revenue and EPS both beat cleanly, data center and AI revenue grew 22%, and foundry revenue was up 16%. The print landed like a thesis confirmation for everyone who has been bullish on the semi capex cycle, and the sympathy move on Friday was massive. AMD added 12%. ARM, MRVL, SMCI, ASML, and TSMC all gained 3.5% or more in a single session.
Worth being clear-eyed about what this means. Semis are now short-term very extended. The overall recent move is nearing some parabolic action and a sign that some digestion is likely coming. That said, the bigger picture matters, this is the first real leg out of the market correction we sat through from October till March. Given that this is the first leg, it’s more likely that this pullback will be bought, and the medium to long-term setup for semis and the broader index by extension, looks like it is building for another move higher rather than topping.
The geopolitical backdrop stayed messy and the market kept ignoring it. Trump cancelled the planned envoy visit to Pakistan over the weekend after Iran’s foreign minister left Islamabad without a meeting. The blockade is still in place, the Strait is still effectively closed, and a leaked Pentagon assessment now says it could take up to six months to clear the Iranian mines even if a deal got done tomorrow. Crude drifted lower regardless, with WTI at $94 and Brent at $105, suggesting traders are treating the conflict as priced-in noise. The VIX dropped to 18.71, the lowest close in months. Earnings season is tracking 15.1% blended Q1 growth ahead of next week’s gauntlet of Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet.
Catalysts Over the Last Week
As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.
$INTC | Intel reported Thursday night with Q1 results topping estimates across the board. Stock surged 25% on Friday to a new all-time high, surpassing its dot-com era record after more than two decades. Data center and AI revenue grew 22%, foundry revenue up 16%. The print dragged the entire semi complex with it. AMD +12%, with ARM, MRVL, SMCI, ASML, and TSMC all gaining 3.5% or more on Friday alone.
$AAPL | Apple named John Ternus CEO, replacing Tim Cook, who transitions to chairman. The first leadership change at the top of Apple in over a decade.
$AMZN / Anthropic | Amazon committed up to another $25B to Anthropic as part of a broader AI infrastructure deal. Adds to the growing list of hyperscaler-AI capex commitments and reinforces the revenue story underpinning the semi cycle.
$GOOGL / $MRVL | Google in talks with Marvell to build new custom AI chips for inference, per The Information. Marvell followed it up Wednesday with the acquisition of Polariton Technologies, pushing optical performance scaling to 3.2T and beyond. Strong week for the name on multiple fronts.
$NFLX | Netflix announced a $25B share buyback, one of the largest single-name authorizations in recent memory.
MACRO | Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday, calling Iran’s government “seriously fractured.” Markets treated it as a positive but the situation deteriorated by the weekend, with Trump cancelling the planned envoy visit to Pakistan after Iran’s foreign minister left Islamabad without a meeting.
$VRT / $GEV | Two AI infrastructure plays beat hard. Vertiv posted Q1 with diluted EPS growth of 136% and raised full-year guidance. GE Vernova lifted annual revenue forecast on data center demand. Continued confirmation of the data center buildout thesis.
$ASTS | Mixed week. BlueBird 7 placed into an orbit too low to sustain operations after a New Glenn launch vehicle issue on Monday. Recovered by Wednesday when the FCC granted commercial authority for direct-to-device cellular broadband from space.
Psychedelics | $CMPS, $ATAI, $DFTX, $PBM all ripped Monday after Trump signed an executive order to fast-track research and patient access to psychedelic therapies.
$NOW | ServiceNow Q1 beat with revenue $3.77B (+22% YoY) and adjusted EPS in line. Software AI thesis still holding.
Watchlist
Semis: Pullback Watch
The group is short-term extended after last weeks almost parabolic move. Watching for a possible short trade into Monday/Tuesday strength if extension continues without digestion.
Names in focus:
SOXL | Leveraged ETF vehicle for the trade.
$MXL | Massive earnings gap up. Watching how it consolidates the move.
$INTC | The Friday earnings ripper.
$AMD | Pure sympathy on Friday, also extended.
Data Center / AI Infrastructure
The group had some sell pressure on Friday, but after last week’s run, two of the cleaner names are now setting up first pullbacks after initial breakouts.
$NBIS | First pullback after breakout. Watching the $140 area, which aligns with prior ATH retest and the 20 EMA. Could probe a little deeper before stabilising.
$CRWV | Watching the $100 area. Round number support, aligns with the 200 SMA. Clean technical confluence.
Storage / Memory
$SNDK | Earnings Thursday. Hit $1,000 on Friday and could break above that level into the print this week. The reaction will set the tone for the broader memory complex.
$MU | Broke out last week. Likely to move in sympathy with SNDK, both into earnings and on the reaction.
Speculative
$HIMS | Continuation flag after the peptide news from a few weeks ago. Constructive short term consolidation, but has headwinds from being in a longer term downtrend underneath the 200sma.
$XNDU | Tightening up. Setup is binary, ready to move either direction.
Nuclear / IPO Watch
$XE | Nuclear IPO from Friday. The reaction will tell us whether the broader nuclear theme has another leg. If $XE catches and trades over IPO highs, watching the rest of the group for sympathy.
$OKLO | Got a boost on Thursday from the Nvidia and Los Alamos partnership news.
$IMSR | Watching alongside OKLO for sympathy if XE rips.
Closing Thoughts
Semis need to digest the recent almost parabolic move, and price action like that almost always demands a pullback before the next leg. That is not a bearish call, it is just how first legs out of correction tend to behave. The setup we want is exactly that pullback in the leaders.
Next week is going to hinge on the megacap hyperscaler reports. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet all on deck. Their guidance is what determines whether the AI capex story Intel just confirmed gets reinforced at the top of the food chain, or whether the rally narrows further into a handful of semi names.
Zooming out, the overall tape is still extremely bullish. The trend is intact, the indices are at highs, and the structure is constructive. But the initial everything rally that started in early April, with broad participation and a healthy dose of short covering, petered out last week. Breadth started to roll over even as the indices made new highs, with semis doing most of the carrying. That is a signal to shift gears. The easy beta phase of this move is behind us. Now it is about being selective, focusing on names with real catalysts, and respecting the fact that earnings season this week will create both the opportunities and the landmines.
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: