Market Recap
Major indices pulled back over the week, with SPY, QQQ and IWM all finishing lower. Semiconductors led the weakness, while software held up relatively well and remained broadly flat on the week.
One of the bigger macro developments came from the Treasury market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to at least double the size of buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries, an attempt to improve liquidity and counter the recent rise in long-end yields. Bessent also suggested the Treasury could increase purchases further if necessary, describing the approach as a form of a “Treasury twist.” Despite the intervention, longer-term yields remained elevated, leaving the bond market an important area to watch.
Crypto saw some of the largest moves of the week, with BTC rallying around 20%, ETH around 30%, and HYPE approaching a 40% move from the week’s lows.
HYPE also received its own catalyst after President Trump said the CFTC was working on a compliant path to bring Hyperliquid into the US.
Gold continued its uptrend, extending higher with another leg up as momentum in precious metals remained intact.
The standout individual stock move came on Wednesday from $MRNA. Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, in combination with Keytruda for high-risk melanoma. The trial met its primary recurrence-free survival endpoint as well as a key secondary endpoint, marking the first positive Phase 3 result for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer treatment. $MRNA closed up roughly 177% on Wednesday and traded even higher intraday and after hours.
The Moderna move quickly spilled over into the wider oncology and biotech space, sparking sympathy moves across names such as TEM and PSNL, while biotech ETFs including XBI and ARKG also saw increased attention. It was another good example of how a major company-specific catalyst can develop into a broader sector theme.
Watchlist
Events Looking Ahead
Jackson Hole will be the main macro event to watch, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking on Friday. With rates and the Treasury market already in focus, his comments could be an important catalyst for the broader market.
NVDA reports earnings Wednesday after the close. AI and semiconductor stocks took a backseat last week, so a strong report and outlook could potentially reignite momentum across the group. For now, much of the AI and semi basket has pulled back into mid-range areas on the daily chart, leaving the setups relatively uninteresting heading into the week.
Crypto
Crypto remains one of my main areas of focus after last week’s strong breakout.
BTC, ETH, HYPE, IBIT, ETHA - Following the recent expansion higher, weekend price action looks more like a short pause and consolidation heading into the start of the week.
MSTR, BMNR, PURR, USDE - Crypto treasury stocks remain on watch as higher-beta ways to participate in continued strength across the underlying assets.
HOOD, COIN, CRCL - The main crypto equities on watch. HOOD stands out after breaking out to fresh highs on Friday and could continue to see momentum if the crypto rally persists.
Metals & Materials
Metals continue to show strength, with gold and gold miners particularly strong recently.
A couple of rare earth and materials names have also come back onto the radar:
MP, TMQ - Both are worth watching for renewed momentum as interest returns to the group.
Biotech
Biotech remains a major focus after the groupwide strength sparked by MRNA last week.
MRNA - Consolidating after its huge catalyst-driven move. The initial expansion has passed, but the stock remains important as a potential leader and sentiment driver for the group.
TEM, PSNL - Two of the more notable sympathy movers. TEM in particular looks like it could be due for a short term pullback day.
BFLY, GH, LLY - A few other constructive charts within the broader healthcare and biotech space that are worth keeping on watch.
Closing Thoughts
This week highlighted the importance of following where the news and momentum are, rather than becoming too attached to the sectors that have worked previously.
Many of the market’s biggest winners over the past few months, including semiconductors, memory and AI stocks, pulled back throughout the week. At the same time, there were huge moves and plenty of opportunity across crypto and biotech, two areas that had fresh catalysts and rapidly expanding momentum.
With the major indices now retracing back into their broader consolidation ranges, the market will likely remain selective. Rather than relying on a broad market uptrend, the focus remains on identifying specific sectors and individual stocks attracting abnormal volume, fresh catalysts and momentum.
If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: