Market Recap
AI slowdown fears remained a major theme early in the week following Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend warning over the risks of rapidly advancing AI. His comments highlighted the potential cybersecurity threat from increasingly capable autonomous AI agents, helping drive a rally in cybersecurity stocks on Monday while semiconductors sold off.
The Fed delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike. The market initially sold off following the decision, but recovered into the end of the week. The Nasdaq ultimately finished higher, while the S&P 500 ended roughly flat and the Dow fell 1.7%.
Semiconductors and memory stocks regained strength towards the end of the week, while crypto also saw a strong move on Friday. Several altcoins pushed to new highs, including $HYPE, $ZEC, $ENA and $SOL.
Oil hovered around the $100 level for much of the week before pulling back slightly into the weekend.
Watchlist
$QQQ has been trading in a tight range since mid-August, with roughly 722 marking the highs and 700 the lows. Following the recovery after the FOMC rate hike, the market could potentially be setting up for a breakout from this range to the upside.
Semiconductors showed renewed strength on Friday.
$SMTC is already pushing into new highs, which is notable, although it remains a less popular and less liquid name compared with some of the larger semiconductor leaders.
$AMD remains the main liquid leader and is one of the closest major semiconductor names to new highs.
$INTC also started to move out of its recent base on Friday, although it remains much further below its all-time highs.
Memory stocks also strengthened, with $SNDK and $MU both approaching the upper ends of their recent ranges and potentially setting up for breakouts. After such large range days on Friday, however, some digestion or consolidation would be preferable before attempting new highs.
Crypto is the other standout area heading into the week. Friday saw breakouts across a number of coins, with $IBIT, $ETHA and $SOLZ among the main ETFs to watch.
Among the crypto equities, $HOOD, $CRCL and $COIN remain the larger liquid names, while $GEMI and $SECZ are some of the more speculative names showing momentum.
Crypto treasury stocks have particularly strong momentum at the moment, especially among the smaller caps where the moves have been much more aggressive. $CYPH, $USDE, $DFDV and $PURR are some of the higher-momentum names, alongside the larger and more established $BMNR, $MSTR and $SBET.
The strength in crypto is also spilling over into the former crypto miners that have increasingly pivoted towards AI and data center infrastructure. $MARA and $RIOT have started moving, while $HIVE, $BTDR, $HUT, $CIFR and $IREN are other names to keep on watch.
Outside of these groups, $HPE continues to repeatedly test its all-time-high area and remains one of the stronger infrastructure charts.
$NBIS is also worth watching. It remains one of the more compelling data center names fundamentally and has been forming a base after its previous run, putting it back on watch if it can begin pushing out of that range.
Closing Thoughts
Given how tightly $QQQ has been trading over the past few weeks, the market currently looks like it has the most potential since June for a new trend to emerge.
From range contraction comes expansion, and we are starting to see multiple groups turn higher at the same time, including semiconductors, crypto and cybersecurity.
The key this week will be whether $QQQ can finally break out of its range and, more importantly, hold above it. If it can, we could finally see a return to a more directional market with better momentum opportunities across the board.
If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: