Breakout or Fake-Out: The First Test of the New Uptrend
Weekly Outlook 04/13/26
Market Recap
Last week I wrote about character change - the market’s refusal to sell despite relentless macro pressure - and flagged it as a reason to stay constructive. This week delivered the follow-through. Best weekly performance since November, leading stocks breaking out, and a ceasefire that gave the bulls exactly the catalyst they needed.
S&P 500 +3.6% | Nasdaq +4.7% | Dow +3.0%
Macro News
Ceasefire
April 8: U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Crude futures dropped 12% on the day
Strait still closed
Maritime traffic remained severely constrained post-ceasefire
Only a handful of vessels transited April 8-9
Iran continued charging tolls exceeding $1M per ship
Lebanon complication
Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon after the ceasefire announcement
Iran’s IRGC declared shipping through the Strait had stopped in response, citing a ceasefire violation
CPI (Friday)
March CPI: +3.3% YoY vs. 2.4% in February
Monthly gain: +0.9% -- energy drove nearly three-quarters of the increase; gasoline +21.2%
Core CPI: +2.6% YoY, more contained
Weekend developments (post-close)
Saturday: JD Vance announced Iran negotiations had broken down
Trump declared a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz
SPX weekend futures on Hyperliquid showing -2%
The important level I’m watching is the 6650 area, where we broke out from on the ceasefire news. If we start to trade under that level, it’ll start to look like a failed breakout and a negative sign. If price comes back and holds 6650 as support, that can be a potential a higher low structure and the uptrend stays intact.
Watchlist
Earnings
Earnings season is starting, with banks dominating the early part of the week, $GS Monday, then $JPM, $WFC, $C Tuesday, followed by $BAC and $MS Wednesday. Also on the calendar: $JNJ, $BLK Tuesday, $ASML Wednesday - a key read on semiconductor equipment demand - and $TSM Thursday, which will be closely watched for any commentary on AI-driven chip demand and tariff exposure. $NFLX also reports Thursday.
Catalysts
Before diving into the watchlist, I wanted to briefly mention the Valhalla Portal. One of the features I’ve been building is an activity feed that logs every major catalyst I flag throughout the week - a running record of what moved markets and why. Useful for staying oriented without having to piece it all together from memory. Screenshot from this week below.
Some of the major catalysts this week:
Trump finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate - boost for health insurers ($CVS, $UNH, $HUM)
Intel joins Terafab project with SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla to help refactor silicon fab technology ($INTC)
Meta debuts first major AI model
Meta commits to spending additional 21B with CoreWeave
Google expands partnership with Intel for AI chips ($GOOGL, $INTC)
CoreWeave announces multi-year agreement with Anthropic ($CRWV)
Space Sector
Remains a high-conviction theme. Multiple setups forming across the group as anticipation around the SpaceX IPO continues to build.
SATS 0.00%↑ could be ready to break to new highs soon after consolidating in this base.
LUNR 0.00%↑ emerging into new 52 week highs.
YSS 0.00%↑ recent IPO with strong momentum off the lows.
Still watching: $RKLB, $ASTS, $SIDU, $DXYZ.
Data Centers / AI Infrastructure
The CRWV-Meta and CRWV-Anthropic deals dominated headlines this week. Anthropic’s revenue growth - has eased concerns that AI is a capex bubble with no revenue to show. Two successful companies now reduce the single-name OpenAI concentration risk across the sector.
$NBIS - acting like the group leader. Big weekly base, huge revenue acceleration, liquid. Top pick in the space.
$CRWV - large base, significant revenue backlog. More debt-loaded than NBIS but a liquid name that can run.
$HUT, $WULF - honorable mentions, no clean setups yet. On watch for pullbacks.
Software
Continues to break down. Fresh lows across the board. Two scenarios: if it keeps going straight down, a short-term bounce becomes playable. If it consolidates here, the next leg lower sets up. Watching for one or the other to develop.
Tracking: $NOW, $PLTR, $IGV, $SNOW, $NET, $OPEN.
Other
$CAR - keeps grinding higher. Watching for an obvious reversal signal. Would rather be late than early on this one.
Low Floats
$SKYQ, $AIXI - on radar.
Closing Thoughts
This week was unambiguously strong. Leading stocks broke out to new highs, breadth was broad, and the AI sector delivered positive catalysts with the CRWV-Meta and CRWV-Anthropic deals reframing the capex narrative. The tape had the feel of a market that wanted to go higher.
The weekend breakdown in negotiations and Trump’s naval blockade announcement is the first real stress test of that thesis. How the market responds on the open will be telling. Do bulls buy the dip immediately and defend 6650? Or does the breakout fail and we retrace the entire ceasefire move?
That answer shapes the next several weeks. A swift recovery keeps the higher low structure intact and adds conviction to the new uptrend. A breakdown below 6650 and we have to treat last week as a relief rally in a still-broken market. Watch how price behaves at that level. The quality of the response matters this week.
P.S.
If you haven't checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it's where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I'll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here: