The bond selloff continued to start the week, with $TLT making fresh lows before finally finding a bid and bouncing on Thursday. The shift was helped by cooler inflation data, with PCE coming in below expectations on Wednesday.

Friday’s jobs report added further support to the idea that the Fed can pause. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, well below expectations, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

Fed rate hike expectations fell sharply throughout the week. The probability of an October hike was around 70% earlier in the week, falling to roughly 37% after PCE and around 15-20% following Friday’s jobs report. An October hike now looks increasingly unlikely, although another hike later in the year remains possible.

$QQQ responded well to the shift in rates and closed the week at a new all-time high. $SPY remains below its highs and continues to underperform tech, while $IWM also bounced alongside bonds from Thursday as some pressure came off the more rate-sensitive areas of the market.

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Weak breadth has consistently been an underlying issue in the market recently, although this started to improve towards the end of the week as more stocks began participating in the move higher.

Optical computing stocks showed some momentum early on Thursday which continued into Friday.

$LITE was the first to make new all-time highs and remains the de facto leader of the group.

$AAOI, $AXTI, $GLW, $COHR and $MXL are the other main names to keep on watch if momentum in the group continues.

$MU has been consolidating in a range near the highs, with a breakout above the $1,110 area as the next potential pivot.

$SKHY is a recent IPO trading close to all-time highs, with the recent high around $200 providing a clear level to watch.

Semis remain strong overall, although some of the largest names are not necessarily in the most actionable spots.

$NVDA made a new intraday all-time high on Friday but failed to hold the move into the close. Despite being near highs, it continues to lack the sustained momentum we have often seen from other leading stocks, perhaps unsurprising given its sheer size and market cap.

$AMD is also at all-time highs, but isn’t in a particularly actionable spot after gapping higher with the broader market on Friday.

$INTC remains another name to watch within the group after its recent strength.

Crypto continues to consolidate. Despite Friday’s failed push higher, both $BTC and $ETH remain within their ranges and the broader consolidation has yet to break.

$SDEV is also on watch as a small-cap crypto treasury stock that is starting to become extended, potentially setting it up as a short if the move becomes parabolic.

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Closing Thoughts

$QQQ breaking out to new all-time highs is objectively bullish and keeps the broader trend intact.

The market continues to be led primarily by AI and tech stocks, unsurprisingly, while many other areas remain relatively weak. Financials and small caps have continued to lag, with $IWM and other rate-sensitive areas particularly impacted by the recent move higher in yields.

Overall, the market appears to be in a cautiously bullish regime for now. Breadth is still far from ideal, but more daily charts are beginning to shape up and participate, which is an encouraging sign heading into the new week.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week we highlighted how $QQQ had been trading in a tightly coiled range since mid-August, with the potential for a breakout following the FOMC reaction.

The week started strongly, with $QQQ rallying nearly 3% on Monday. However, the market came under pressure midweek as longer-term Treasury yields continued to rise, before yields finally pulled back on Friday.

Financials saw a sharp selloff on Tuesday as concerns emerged over the potential disruption from Meta’s new Muse AI agent. Analysts highlighted how AI agents could threaten traditional wealth management businesses by automating financial planning, comparing investment products and reducing the customer loyalty that allows firms to maintain higher fees. The broader financial sector finished Tuesday down 2%.

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$BE showed notable strength on Friday, particularly after gapping down on Thursday following news of Oracle’s data centre delays. The stock quickly recovered and went on to make new highs.

$SMCI is also beginning to trend out of its recent consolidation range, supported by broader strength across the AI hardware group.

Following the launch and growing popularity of Meta’s Muse, attention is turning towards the hardware required to support AI agents, particularly CPUs and memory.

$AMD remains the undisputed liquid leader in the CPU space, while $INTC has also been performing well.

In memory, $SKHY looks to be consolidating near its highs and remains one to watch for a potential continuation.

$MSFT closed near the highs of its recent range on Friday, gaining 3.7% following the announcement of a major Copilot overhaul. The update introduces Code, which allows users to build applications using natural language, and Autopilot, a persistent AI agent capable of carrying out tasks autonomously.

$IONQ remains near the highs of its recent PR-driven gap, with quantum computing another group worth keeping an eye on.

$MRNA has been trending strongly since breaking above $150. While there is nothing particularly actionable at current levels, the sustained momentum makes it worth keeping on the radar.

$TEM continues to leg higher following its initial sympathy breakout alongside $MRNA, with momentum in the biotech group remaining strong.

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Closing Thoughts

$QQQ broke out to test its prior all-time highs before consolidating over the last three sessions. Price action remains constructive, with technology leading the rally, as we would typically expect in a healthy bull market.

Meanwhile, $IWM remains under pressure as elevated interest rates continue to weigh more heavily on smaller, unprofitable companies.

The main concern with the current market is the weak breadth and overall lack of charts setting up to participate in the rally. However, things can change quickly from one session to the next, particularly if the broader market continues to hold up.

Until we see participation broaden, the focus remains on the stocks showing the strongest relative strength and momentum.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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AI slowdown fears remained a major theme early in the week following Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend warning over the risks of rapidly advancing AI. His comments highlighted the potential cybersecurity threat from increasingly capable autonomous AI agents, helping drive a rally in cybersecurity stocks on Monday while semiconductors sold off.

The Fed delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike. The market initially sold off following the decision, but recovered into the end of the week. The Nasdaq ultimately finished higher, while the S&P 500 ended roughly flat and the Dow fell 1.7%.

Semiconductors and memory stocks regained strength towards the end of the week, while crypto also saw a strong move on Friday. Several altcoins pushed to new highs, including $HYPE, $ZEC, $ENA and $SOL.

Oil hovered around the $100 level for much of the week before pulling back slightly into the weekend.

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$QQQ has been trading in a tight range since mid-August, with roughly 722 marking the highs and 700 the lows. Following the recovery after the FOMC rate hike, the market could potentially be setting up for a breakout from this range to the upside.

Semiconductors showed renewed strength on Friday.

$SMTC is already pushing into new highs, which is notable, although it remains a less popular and less liquid name compared with some of the larger semiconductor leaders.

$AMD remains the main liquid leader and is one of the closest major semiconductor names to new highs.

$INTC also started to move out of its recent base on Friday, although it remains much further below its all-time highs.

Memory stocks also strengthened, with $SNDK and $MU both approaching the upper ends of their recent ranges and potentially setting up for breakouts. After such large range days on Friday, however, some digestion or consolidation would be preferable before attempting new highs.

Crypto is the other standout area heading into the week. Friday saw breakouts across a number of coins, with $IBIT, $ETHA and $SOLZ among the main ETFs to watch.

Among the crypto equities, $HOOD, $CRCL and $COIN remain the larger liquid names, while $GEMI and $SECZ are some of the more speculative names showing momentum.

Crypto treasury stocks have particularly strong momentum at the moment, especially among the smaller caps where the moves have been much more aggressive. $CYPH, $USDE, $DFDV and $PURR are some of the higher-momentum names, alongside the larger and more established $BMNR, $MSTR and $SBET.

The strength in crypto is also spilling over into the former crypto miners that have increasingly pivoted towards AI and data center infrastructure. $MARA and $RIOT have started moving, while $HIVE, $BTDR, $HUT, $CIFR and $IREN are other names to keep on watch.

Outside of these groups, $HPE continues to repeatedly test its all-time-high area and remains one of the stronger infrastructure charts.

$NBIS is also worth watching. It remains one of the more compelling data center names fundamentally and has been forming a base after its previous run, putting it back on watch if it can begin pushing out of that range.

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Closing Thoughts

Given how tightly $QQQ has been trading over the past few weeks, the market currently looks like it has the most potential since June for a new trend to emerge.

From range contraction comes expansion, and we are starting to see multiple groups turn higher at the same time, including semiconductors, crypto and cybersecurity.

The key this week will be whether $QQQ can finally break out of its range and, more importantly, hold above it. If it can, we could finally see a return to a more directional market with better momentum opportunities across the board.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Markets sold off through the early part of the week before finding some relief with a bounce on Friday. Despite the recovery, the broader market remains under pressure as rising yields, oil prices and expectations for tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on risk assets.

$IWM remains one of the weaker areas of the market, continuing to sell off as expectations for a Fed rate hike have increased significantly. Markets are now heavily pricing in a 25bp hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, making Wednesday’s decision the major macro catalyst ahead.

Oil has also become an increasingly important part of the macro picture. WTI crude pushed back towards $100 this week, returning to levels last seen around May as geopolitical tensions and supply concerns drove another sharp move higher.

Friday’s CPI report reinforced those concerns. Headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM in August, with higher gasoline and energy prices contributing significantly to the increase. With oil back around $100, energy prices are once again becoming an important inflationary pressure and another factor complicating the Fed’s path.

Crypto held up relatively well despite the broader risk-off environment. Ethereum attempted to break out of its recent consolidation and bull flag on Friday, briefly pushing through resistance before closing back below the breakout level. The structure remains constructive, but failing to hold above the breakout level could be a sign of weak momentum overall.

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The main event this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With a rate hike now heavily expected, the focus will be less on the decision itself and more on the Fed’s guidance and what it signals for the path of rates going forward.

Another developing theme heading into the week is the growing concern around the speed of AI development.

Over the weekend, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay calling for the industry to slow the pace of frontier AI development as model capabilities continue to improve at an increasingly rapid rate. Rather than calling for AI development to stop completely, Amodei argued that safety and oversight need more time to catch up, proposing independent safety evaluators, coordinated standards between the major AI labs and eventually broader international cooperation.

The comments gained further attention after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk expressed support for greater restraint, creating a rare point of agreement between some of the biggest competitors in the AI race.

This creates a new risk to watch for the AI infrastructure and capex trade. Much of the strength in datacenters, semiconductors, power and other picks-and-shovels names has been built around expectations for continued aggressive spending and an accelerating AI arms race. Any shift in sentiment towards slower development, tighter regulation or reduced capex expectations could put pressure on this group heading into the week.

More broadly, $QQQ remains extremely rangebound. The index is sitting around the middle of the roughly 705-725 range that has developed since the mid-August gap down, leaving little directional edge at current levels. Until that range begins to resolve, the better opportunities are likely to remain in individual stocks and themes rather than the broader index.

Strong Stocks

$AMD remains one of the stronger semiconductor names, particularly when looking at how little it has pulled back from its all-time highs relative to the rest of the group.

has also been showing increasingly constructive price action, with a potential breakout above the recent highs around 107 worth watching.

$SKHY continues to show notable relative strength out of the memory group.

$SPCX has remained in a steady uptrend for most of the past month. The move has been relatively slow and controlled rather than momentum-driven, but the trend remains intact.

Despite Ethereum retracing much of Friday’s attempted breakout, it remains within its broader consolidation range. The first breakout attempt usually carries the greatest potential for an explosive momentum move, so any further push higher from here may be more likely to develop as a slower trend if ETH can eventually clear the range.

$MRNA remains in consolidation following the gap higher on its Phase 3 cancer trial news. It has yet to resolve the range, keeping it on watch for a potential continuation move.

$DELL and $HPE are two notable areas of strength within the computer hardware group. Both saw strong breakout action on Friday, although the ideal entries were likely on the initial move. They remain on watch for continuation or a constructive pullback.

$HUT, $NBIS, $BE and $IREN remain on watch across the datacenter and AI infrastructure theme. With the AI safety discussion developing over the weekend, this group could see increased volatility on Monday if the news begins to impact sentiment around the broader AI capex trade.

Oil was beginning to look extended as WTI crude approached $100, but Friday’s pullback helped cool the move. $USO and /CL futures remain on watch, particularly with energy now playing a larger role in the inflation and rates narrative.

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Closing Thoughts

The broader market remains stuck in a range with little clear direction, while rising rates and oil continue to add pressure beneath the surface. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will be the key catalyst this week and could finally provide some direction after several weeks of sideways action.

At the same time, the developing AI safety narrative adds another layer of uncertainty to some of the market’s strongest themes, particularly the AI infrastructure and capex trade. With $QQQ still sitting in the middle of its range, there is little reason to force trades before the market shows its hand.

However, the weakness developing over the weekend could put that range under pressure sooner than expected. If $QQQ gaps lower on Monday and fails to recover, the lower end of the range could quickly come back into play and potentially set up a broader breakdown.

Either way, the combination of the FOMC and renewed AI fears could be enough to bring some volatility back into the market this week.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Markets finished the week relatively unchanged despite a pullback to start the week, with the major indices continuing to trade without much directional momentum.

Oil climbed throughout the week but still remains inside the wider trading range that has been in place since the start of the war in March.

Stronger jobs data on Friday triggered a pullback across the broader market and crypto. Despite the weakness, $BTC and $ETH remain in bullish consolidation patterns on the daily timeframe.

Some secondary coins have shown much stronger relative strength, with HYPE and ZEC notably outperforming the broader crypto market.

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The main macro event next week will be CPI on Friday. With the FOMC meeting the following week, the inflation print could have a meaningful impact on expectations around the Fed’s next rate decision.

Crypto

Crypto remains one of the more interesting areas heading into the week, with ETH in particular looking like it could be shaping up for a continuation breakout from its recent consolidation.

HOOD remains one of the strongest stocks in the crypto space. Robinhood Chain has seen a surge in activity recently, with daily fees reaching $4.45 million on September 2 and DEX volumes accelerating sharply. The network has increasingly become a venue for speculative crypto trading, adding another potential growth narrative around HOOD beyond its traditional brokerage business.

CRCL is another name to keep on watch, remaining in a solid uptrend since the broader crypto breakout.

CYPH offers exposure to the recent strength in ZEC through its Zcash treasury strategy. With ZEC itself exploding higher, it remains a higher-beta vehicle to watch for trades in both directions.

USDE is another small-cap treasury name on watch, although would want to see ENA break out before becoming more interested.

MSTR and BMNR remain the other usual treasury names to monitor if momentum accelerates across BTC and ETH.

Memory

Memory stocks return to the watchlist after an explosive breakout on Friday following a period of tight daily consolidation and volatility contraction.

SNDK, MU and SKHY are the main names on watch for continuation if Friday’s expansion can carry into next week.

AI / Data Centers

The AI sector also started to show some signs of life last week.

DELL reported strong earnings, while competitor SMCI has started to trend higher again on the daily chart.

BE was added to the S&P 500 on Friday, providing another catalyst for a name that has already been one of the stronger AI infrastructure plays.

NBIS and IREN also remain on watch after their recent strong rallies, particularly if momentum starts to return across the broader data center theme.

GPRO is an interesting small-cap momentum watch following its merger agreement with Starman Optical. The $285 million transaction would leave existing GoPro shareholders with approximately 10% of the combined company, while expanding the business beyond consumer cameras into areas including AI data centers, government, defense and aerospace.

More importantly from a trading perspective, GPRO has continued to trade unusually heavy volume since the announcement. With the stock trading above the implied cash consideration and maintaining elevated attention, there could potentially be a meme or speculative momentum element developing here.

For now, it stays on watch as long as the abnormal volume persists.

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Closing Thoughts

After August was defined by fairly choppy, sideways trading across much of the market, there have been some encouraging signs of improvement over the past week. More breakouts are beginning to show sustained momentum, particularly across memory stocks, crypto and select AI names.

With the quieter summer months coming to an end, it may be time to start watching for the market to finally pick a direction. The FOMC meeting the following week could provide the catalyst for a broader expansion out of the ranges that have dominated much of the past month.

Until then, the focus remains on the areas already showing relative strength and momentum.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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The major indices started the week on solid footing, with SPY and QQQ grinding higher into Nvidia earnings on Wednesday evening.

NVDA delivered another strong report and outlook, initially sending shares sharply higher and helping push the broader AI and semiconductor trade higher on Thursday. The Nasdaq gained 1.6% on the session, while NVDA closed up nearly 9%. However, there was little follow-through into Friday, with NVDA giving back much of the move and the broader market falling back into its recent range.

The main macro catalyst came on Friday with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech. Warsh struck a noticeably hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and that recent softer inflation readings have not yet demonstrated a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend. He also described financial conditions as not particularly restrictive, leaving the door open to further tightening if inflation fails to improve.

Markets quickly repriced the path for rates. The implied probability of a September rate hike jumped from roughly 35% before the speech to around 56-60% afterward, putting a near-term hike firmly back on the table. Treasury yields and the dollar moved higher in response.

The shift in rate expectations weighed most heavily on the more rate-sensitive areas of the market. IWM was notably weak, with the Russell 2000 falling around 1.5% for the week, while XBI and biotech stocks also came under pressure. This left a clear divergence beneath the surface, with the headline indices holding up relatively well while small caps and other rate-sensitive groups weakened.

Gold was also hit following Warsh’s comments as yields and the dollar moved higher, reversing some of its recent strength.

Crypto was comparatively uneventful. BTC and ETH mostly chopped sideways throughout the week, consolidating after the recent move higher rather than providing much directional momentum.

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CRM reported earnings last week alongside the announcement of its ClaudeForce partnership with Anthropic, producing a strong reaction in the stock. More broadly, software has been one of the stronger areas of the market recently, making CRM worth watching, even if there isn’t anything immediately obvious to action.

NOW PLTR are two other software names showing relative strength and remain on watch if momentum in the group continues.

NVDA remains in focus following earnings, although the largest moves were likely captured over the two sessions surrounding the report. Despite the initial positive reaction, the stock has ultimately moved back toward the middle of its broader daily range, leaving the setup less compelling unless it can begin expanding out of that range again.

IBIT ETHA / BTC ETH have now traded mostly sideways for the past two weeks following the initial breakout rally. The consolidation has tightened and could resolve in either direction. Rather than anticipating the move, the focus will be on waiting for price to break from the current range and then looking for momentum to follow.

With expectations for another rate hike increasing and IWM showing notable weakness, rate-sensitive and unprofitable growth companies could remain under pressure. One group setting up particularly well to the downside is quantum computing.

QBTS RGTI are both firmly below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and remain in Stage 4 declines. Any weak bounces into resistance could provide opportunities for continuation lower, particularly if small caps and speculative growth remain under pressure.

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Closing Thoughts

Friday’s action put a halt to the market’s recent leg higher. With NVDA moving back into its range, SPY, QQQ and much of the semiconductor group are once again sitting around the middle of their recent consolidation ranges, leaving little clear directional edge.

The main exception is IWM, where the shift in rate expectations has created more meaningful weakness and pushed small caps toward a potential breakdown.

Software and crypto remain two of the stronger areas of the market, but it is difficult to expect sustained momentum if the broader indices continue to lack direction. There can still be opportunities within individual themes and catalysts, but the overall environment looks increasingly selective.

For now, it appears we may have re-entered a sideways, choppy regime, particularly as we head into September. Rather than forcing trades in the middle of these ranges, the focus shifts back toward patience and waiting for cleaner setups and stronger momentum to emerge.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Major indices pulled back over the week, with SPY, QQQ and IWM all finishing lower. Semiconductors led the weakness, while software held up relatively well and remained broadly flat on the week.

One of the bigger macro developments came from the Treasury market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to at least double the size of buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries, an attempt to improve liquidity and counter the recent rise in long-end yields. Bessent also suggested the Treasury could increase purchases further if necessary, describing the approach as a form of a “Treasury twist.” Despite the intervention, longer-term yields remained elevated, leaving the bond market an important area to watch.

Crypto saw some of the largest moves of the week, with BTC rallying around 20%, ETH around 30%, and HYPE approaching a 40% move from the week’s lows.

HYPE also received its own catalyst after President Trump said the CFTC was working on a compliant path to bring Hyperliquid into the US.

Gold continued its uptrend, extending higher with another leg up as momentum in precious metals remained intact.

The standout individual stock move came on Wednesday from $MRNA. Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, in combination with Keytruda for high-risk melanoma. The trial met its primary recurrence-free survival endpoint as well as a key secondary endpoint, marking the first positive Phase 3 result for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer treatment. $MRNA closed up roughly 177% on Wednesday and traded even higher intraday and after hours.

The Moderna move quickly spilled over into the wider oncology and biotech space, sparking sympathy moves across names such as TEM and PSNL, while biotech ETFs including XBI and ARKG also saw increased attention. It was another good example of how a major company-specific catalyst can develop into a broader sector theme.

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Events Looking Ahead

Jackson Hole will be the main macro event to watch, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking on Friday. With rates and the Treasury market already in focus, his comments could be an important catalyst for the broader market.

NVDA reports earnings Wednesday after the close. AI and semiconductor stocks took a backseat last week, so a strong report and outlook could potentially reignite momentum across the group. For now, much of the AI and semi basket has pulled back into mid-range areas on the daily chart, leaving the setups relatively uninteresting heading into the week.

Crypto

Crypto remains one of my main areas of focus after last week’s strong breakout.

BTC, ETH, HYPE, IBIT, ETHA - Following the recent expansion higher, weekend price action looks more like a short pause and consolidation heading into the start of the week.

MSTR, BMNR, PURR, USDE - Crypto treasury stocks remain on watch as higher-beta ways to participate in continued strength across the underlying assets.

HOOD, COIN, CRCL - The main crypto equities on watch. HOOD stands out after breaking out to fresh highs on Friday and could continue to see momentum if the crypto rally persists.

Metals & Materials

Metals continue to show strength, with gold and gold miners particularly strong recently.

A couple of rare earth and materials names have also come back onto the radar:

MP, TMQ - Both are worth watching for renewed momentum as interest returns to the group.

Biotech

Biotech remains a major focus after the groupwide strength sparked by MRNA last week.

MRNA - Consolidating after its huge catalyst-driven move. The initial expansion has passed, but the stock remains important as a potential leader and sentiment driver for the group.

TEM, PSNL - Two of the more notable sympathy movers. TEM in particular looks like it could be due for a short term pullback day.

BFLY, GH, LLY - A few other constructive charts within the broader healthcare and biotech space that are worth keeping on watch.

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Closing Thoughts

This week highlighted the importance of following where the news and momentum are, rather than becoming too attached to the sectors that have worked previously.

Many of the market’s biggest winners over the past few months, including semiconductors, memory and AI stocks, pulled back throughout the week. At the same time, there were huge moves and plenty of opportunity across crypto and biotech, two areas that had fresh catalysts and rapidly expanding momentum.

With the major indices now retracing back into their broader consolidation ranges, the market will likely remain selective. Rather than relying on a broad market uptrend, the focus remains on identifying specific sectors and individual stocks attracting abnormal volume, fresh catalysts and momentum.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Indices were quiet this week, with $SPY and $QQQ consolidating inside a range for most of the week, with a breakout attempt on Thursday after the PPI print, though retracing much of it back down on Friday.

Software got a lift on Thursday after Reuters broke that Silver Lake has been in talks for months to take Workday private, and $WDAY closed up nearly 18% at $206.45 on a deal that would be one of the largest software buyouts ever. The stock halted three times on the way up, running as much as 25% intraday. Private equity paying up for a beaten down enterprise name is a vote against the AI disruption story that has been hanging over the group all year, and the read through carried the wider software complex with it.

Semis still trade poorly, after trying to break higher from the multiday consolidating range but overall not moving for the past 3 days. AMAT dropped on earnings as well as AVGO getting hit on Friday.

SanDisk’s Investor Day provided another catalyst for the memory trade on Thursday, with management laying out an upbeat long-term financial model and stronger revenue growth projections. The outlook reinforced expectations for a sustained memory upcycle and improving industry fundamentals, helping lift sentiment across the broader memory complex and driving strength across the group.

Energy quietly led the whole thing. $XLE and $XOP were bid from Monday’s open and never gave it back. The sector was up over 6% week to date on Friday’s close.

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Quiet earnings week, with most of the focus toward individual catalysts, relative strength, and names that are beginning to separate themselves from their respective groups.

$NBIS was one of the standout winners from earnings last week, closing up 34% after reporting and finishing the week close to all-time highs. The ideal entry came on earnings day itself, so at current levels the focus is on whether it can consolidate the move and offer another setup rather than chasing the initial expansion.

$CRWV also saw a large post-earnings rally, but the optimism was short-lived. The stock has been sold every day since, leaving behind increasingly messy price action. For now, it needs time to reset and rebuild structure before becoming more interesting again.

$AMD was a notable relative-strength name on Friday following reports that Google could work with AMD on a future generation of its TPU accelerators, while expectations for Broadcom’s TPU volumes were reportedly being revised lower. The chatter circulated heavily during Friday’s session and coincided with strength in AMD while $AVGO sold off.

More broadly, AMD has held up relatively well through the recent semiconductor pullback. Despite remaining within a wide and loose consolidation range, it avoided the deeper retracements seen across several other semiconductor names. That relative strength, combined with the potential Google catalyst, puts it high on the watchlist if the group can regain momentum.

$AAOI finished Friday strongly and remains one of the more interesting names within the optical computing group. The strong close keeps it on watch for continuation, particularly if momentum returns to the broader AI infrastructure and optical names.

$SPCX continues to trend higher following its lockup expiration. The stock has so far absorbed the additional supply without breaking its broader uptrend, keeping the existing trend intact and making it one to continue monitoring for pullbacks and continuation setups.

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Closing Thoughts

The market remains fairly quiet as we move through the peak summer period. Volatility and daily ranges have continued to narrow, leaving many stocks chopping around without much sustained direction.

In this type of environment, the focus should remain on individual catalysts and names showing abnormal volume or reacting to meaningful news. These are more likely to provide clean opportunities while the broader market remains relatively muted.

Nothing particularly stands out heading into the week, but conditions can shift quickly. Stay selective, remain patient when there is no clear edge, and be ready to get aggressive when the right opportunities appear.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week we said the test was whether the indices could hold a higher low and then take out the prior week’s highs. Both confirmed, with $SPY printing a new all time high and $QQQ recovering much of the July drawdown.

Whatever the macro opinion, an index at all time highs is not a bearish chart. Every major index is now in an uptrend and sitting above key moving averages. The base case from here should be that a new uptrend has begun until the tape says otherwise.

The internals are where it gets interesting. $MAGS led early in the week, then software took over from midweek. $PLTR was the engine there, ripping 29.5% Tuesday on a blowout quarter and a big guidance raise, dragging the whole enterprise software group with it.

Semis lagged on a relative basis. The group rallied, but off a base so damaged by July that a strong week barely dents the repair job, and $SOX remains a long way from its highs while $SPY prints new ones. Memory stayed under pressure throughout. $SNDK and $WDC both sold off despite beating, and $MU faded again into Friday. The relative weakness here is now notable during last weeks market rally.

Korea has a similar picture, despite the record reversal that closed out July, $KOSPI is technically in a bear market after drawing down -45% from all time highs.

Most telling of all, the AI infrastructure names Aschenbrenner’s book was force fed into last week began to fade after the initial snapback. Sharp mechanical bounce, then supply. The overall sector also remains relative weak compared to other groups for now.

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The hyperscaler slate is behind us, but the calendar is still busy with the popular growth and AI names. $RKLB, $ASTS and $HIMS report Monday after the close, $SMCI and $CRWV Tuesday, $NBIS Wednesday morning with $CBRS after the bell. Plenty of room for single stock volatility even with the index in a clean uptrend.

Worth flagging away from equities: gold and silver both broke out of a compressed six week range to the upside, with gold posting its best week since January. Both are still countertrend rallies underneath the longer term moving averages, so treat them as such until the structure says otherwise.

$PLTR Strength off the earnings gap. Already rallied alot after earnings so not really a fresh buy here.

$CBRS IPO base building, but reports Wednesday after the close. Earnings could resolve the base into a breakout.

$SPCX Stopped going down on the first unlock date, which is the tell. Momentum has turned upwards for now.

$MU Pivot break around $930, but a weak group and heavy overhead supply. Best chart in an overall weak sector.

$HPE Relative strength name, broke out over $50 and retested this week.

$AVGO Breakout over $400 and trending. Nothing to do but hold it while it works.

$HTZ Post earnings rally with real short interest behind it, 28% of float, and retail speculation potentially.

$AXTI Moving on the China datacenter component ban story along with other optical computing stocks.

$MRVL Four day range, potential break to the upside.

$NBIS Reports Wednesday morning. Burry is short. A higher low plus a pivot break over $230 puts it back in an uptrend.

$SOUN Delayed earnings reaction. The speculative bid is back in parts of this market and this is one of the places it shows up.

$IONQ Countertrend rally across quantum, with the whole group still under its major moving averages.

$DELL Relative strength, but a failed breakout earlier in the week left a loose consolidation.

$IREN Turning around, still under the longer term averages.

$AEHR, $UMAC, some other technical charts of interest.

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Closing Thoughts

$SPY at all time highs is by definition bullish, and the strongest signal this market has given in months. $QQQ has not confirmed with a new high of its own, with semis being the reason for the drag. That weakness is worth respecting, and a sign to focus on the rotation into other groups leading the market instead of trying to force an uprend in weak sectors, such as memory and AI infrastructure for now.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week closed on a bearish note with $QQQ sitting right on the edge of its consolidation range and the leading memory names looking ready to roll back into the downtrend, and both resolved the way the tape was pointing.

The selloff culminated on Wednesday after the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all dissenting in favour of a hike. The initial reaction was higher, but reversed sharply into the close.

Afterwards we found out that part of it was forced liquidation, as Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund had been running leverage as high as 4x across AI infrastructure, power, data centres and bitcoin miners, off a peak near $45 billion at the start of July. Thursday morning news broke that the Citadel had bought the entire portfolio. The overhang cleared and the all major indices reversed sharply to the upside, led by the memory and AI stocks that Leopold had capitulated from. It was also helped by Samsung reporting record chip profit and warning that shortages get more acute into 2028, while $MSFT did the heavy lifting up top, adding roughly $450 billion in market value in the largest single-day market cap gain in history after Azure accelerated to 43%.

Friday was digestion, with the indices closing up modestly, while $AMZN carried the tape and $AAPL went the other way after earnings. Into the close Trump was threatening further escalation against Iran, saying the US would be hitting them very hard, and crude held its bid on it. That came off over the weekend, when he said the US had agreed to pause attacks, citing the perimeters of a deal that would include a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and adding that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off.

Going into next week the technical picture has potential to change, with $SPY‘s bullish reversal putting price back inside the range, and the failure to break down through short term support.

$QQQ came close to testing the 200sma, almost tagged it on the futures, then retraced all the way back above the breakdown level, which gives us a potential higher low. This week decides whether we get the follow through day and the risk on environment back, or whether Thursday was simply the mechanical bounce that comes once a forced seller has finished selling.

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Earnings season continues with more tech and AI names reporting this week:

Korea. After a short term capitulation with the KOSPI topping in June and drawing down around -45% from the highs on last Wednesday, reversing sharply closing up 17.91% for the largest single-day gain in the index’s history. That is likely a short term capitulation which could lead to a further bounce. $EWY and $KORU are the vehicles, with Fridays close as a potential higher low in the start of this countertrend bounce.

Memory. $SNDK, $MU and $DRAM stay the core basket and will trade in the same direction as Korea and $QQQ rather than independently of them. $SNDK reports FQ4 after the close Wednesday with NAND pricing and supply guidance the numbers that matter, which lands directly on top of Samsung’s call that shortages get more acute and run into 2028.

The capitulation names. $NBIS and $BE are both extremely volatile with real fundamentals underneath, and both were core to the book that just got liquidated. Bloom Energy was the fund’s largest disclosed position at roughly 23% of the 13F, and the Nebius stake was built after the March filing, with $2.6 billion disclosed in May. $NBIS had fallen more than 46% over the month into Thursday, then both ripped once Citadel absorbed the block, $NBIS +27.1% and $BE +25.6% by mid afternoon. The forced seller is gone. Whether the bid that replaced it stays is the question.

Relative strength. These held up through the correction and are consolidating on the daily, which is the behaviour that leads if this resolves higher.

$DELL Still holding the base it built while the rest of AI hardware broke down

$HPE Same profile, quietly constructive through the worst of the tape

$AVGO Held structure better than the chips around it

$HUT Ripped 22.5% Thursday despite the fund having already exited the position, which makes the move cohort-wide rather than mechanical

$ANET Reports Q2 after the close Tuesday

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Closing Thoughts

Last week we said the turn would announce itself with an obvious change of character. Thursday and Friday may have been it. The forced liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund could be overall represent a wider leverage reset, with many AI tech stocks having drawn down 50% since the highs. Add Korea rebounding out of a 41% drawdown from the highs and a 18% upday in a single session and the signs of a potential turn is there.

What matters now is whether the indices hold the higher low and take out last week’s highs, to determine if this was just a violent bounce or the potential opening leg of a new uptrend. In addition, watching how stocks respond to news and earnings this week will tell us if there is an overall positive shift in market tone after the market has been correcting sideways for the last couple of months.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week we framed Friday’s bounce as a short term washout, and it held into the early part of this week. Then Thursday and Friday arrived and the market started to roll again. $QQQ continued to break down this week, with price closing below the major support level for the last two months, below the initial washout low created in June.

$SPY and $IWM both lost the 50sma this week, but still remain the higher low washout level from June. Tech is the weakest link and it is the one printing new lows.

VIX the volatility index stayed elevated in the 17 to 20 range all week rather than spiking and fading. A sustained VIX will be a sign to watch for whether more pain is to come.

Memory staged its bounce and then rolled with everything else. $DRAM, $EWY, $MU and $SNDK all traced the same shape: a 5-day bounce off the lows, before giving it up into Friday.

Semis remain in a downtrend, with the group still selling on any positive news. $INTC reported Thursday night with revenue of $16.13 billion against roughly $14.4 billion expected and EPS of $0.42 against $0.21, its fastest growth in almost fifteen years. Shares jumped as much as 12% after hours and then closed Friday down 7.89%. $MXL was worse. It beat on both lines and guided Q3 to $210 to $220 million against consensus near $174 million, then fell 18.6% on Friday.

Wednesday brought the megacaps and both broke down on the daily. $GOOGL posted record operating income on 24% revenue growth, and none of it mattered next to the cash flow statement. Capex doubled to $44.9 billion against $39.1 billion of operating cash flow, producing free cash flow of negative $5.9 billion, the first negative quarter in the company’s history since the 2004 IPO. Management raised the full year capex guide to $195 to $205 billion and then declined to put any number on 2027. The stock closed under the 200ma.

$TSLA finally cracked after a year of going nowhere. Revenue and deliveries were both records, but operating income fell 57%, free cash flow turned negative by $1.1 billion, and Musk spent the call managing expectations on Optimus rather than selling it, calling the robot one of the hardest problems to solve and warning the early ramp would be flat and long. The Musk premium is fading more broadly, with $SPCX sliding right alongside it and giving back everything since the Pentagon deal we flagged last week.

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Next week will heavily be impacted by earnings. $MSFT, $META and $ARM report Wednesday after the close, with $AAPL and $AMZN following Thursday. Four of the heaviest weights in $QQQ land inside 48 hours, and after what happened to $GOOGL for spending, those reactions can move the market.

In addition, many other tech and AI adjacent companies also report, including $QCOM, $VRT, $RDDT, $BE and a others. This week will further set the tone for sentiment in the AI sector.

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday, the first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, further stacking event risk is into this 48 hour window, which is worth knowing before sizing anything.

Correlation inside $QQQ stays high, which means individual setups matter less than they normally would. If the downtrend continues, memory remains the vehicle. Highest beta to the market and the cleanest expression of the move. $SNDK, $DRAM, $MU as the core basket.

There are green shoots in relative strength worth tracking. These names either held up best through the selling or bounced hardest off the recent lows. However, it remains a time to track relative strength rather than initiate new longs. For a sustained uptrend to be created, there needs to be a clear change in character in the wider market.

$DELL clear relative strength and holding the earnings gap from end of May.

$AMD relative strength in terms of relative drawdown from it’s all time highs, despite a choppy trading range.

$NVDA Basing sideways around $200

$ANET A choppy consolidation range but hasn’t really broken down.

$CIFR Datacenter stock that bounced sharply last week.

$HUT Another datacenter stock holding up well.

$USO and crude are on watch as weekend headlines pointed toward possible negotiations.

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Closing Thoughts

It will be an event driven week with the megacap tech stocks reporting earnings as well as FOMC. Along with elevated volatility and the indices breaking fresh lows, the path of least resistance stays to the short side.

It remains an environment to be nimble. Until something changes the short term trend has been down for the last few weeks. When the market turns, it will be an obvious change in character and a clear shift in market tone, with stocks actually going up on positive news, as well as a proliferation in individual breakouts. Until then, remain patient.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Money moved early in the week, just not into anything resembling conviction. The rotation went into the mega caps while memory carved out a lower high and rolled over again, showing clear backside behaviour and distribution.

Crude continues to climb, with the Iran situation not having improved much. However, the conflict isn’t really the main driving narrative for the market, as tech has been selling off for a few weeks now.

Market tone in tech remains negative, this week saw both $ASML and $TSM report earnings and neither print was rewarded. TSMC posted net profit up 77% year over year and lifted its capex guide, ASML beat and raised full year revenue guidance, and both ended lower. That pattern also repeated across the sector in other stocks, showing overall appetite in the AI trade is still low.

On Tuesday. $IBM pre-announced weak preliminary Q2 results and closed down 25.21% at $217.07, the worst single day in the company’s history. Revenue came in at $17.2 billion against $17.86 billion consensus. Krishna wrote an unusually blunt letter admitting the company faltered and pinned it on clients redirecting budget toward servers, memory and storage rather than software.

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The market deteriorated further this week. $QQQ has spent the summer inside one large range between the all time high and the June low, and this week the intermediate range finally gave way. 710 broke Thursday, 700 was breached overnight, and price went on to test the June low. We got a short term oversold bounce out of it, but the close landed in the middle of the day’s range, which remains uncertain.

Volatility is the bigger tell. $VIX hit 18. Memory names have been volatile for weeks, but this is index level volatility now, and that is a different regime. $SPY had largely ignored the tech weakness until Friday, when it finally took a hit and closed underneath the 50sma.

When volatility rises, correlation rises with it, and most names start trading as one instrument. There are not many clean individual charts this week as a result. The focus stays on memory, because it remains the most in play narrative and the best trading vehicle in the market.

Kospi futures did not trade Friday with the Korean market shut for Constitution Day. Worth noting Thursday’s session there was carnage, with $KOSPI down 6.37% on heavy semi selling and a surprise Bank of Korea rate hike. All of that reaction is still queued up for the Monday reopen.

$DRAM, $SOXL, $QQQ, $SNDK, $MU, $SKHY as the basket. The whole group was short term extended into Friday and gave a clean morning bounce, which was a good trade. Next week comes down to one question. Either we take out Friday’s high or we stay weak.

$SPCX continues to remain extremely weak, despite receiving a compute deal from the Pentagon on Friday, where the news was heavily sold into.

$LCID had bankruptcy rumors last week that were denied, and it has been squeezing whatever shorts are left ever since. Watching for a proper blowoff or a fizzle.

Cybersecurity has clearly held up, there isn’t really any sustained trend there. Relative strength in a choppy downward market still doesn’t go anywhere.

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Closing Thoughts

Volatility is up and the indices have no trend, which makes this a daytrading environment rather than a swing one.

Friday may have been a short term washout in memory. The Korea reopen is the tell, and if that session turns we can start cautiously positioning long for a bounce. If instead the selling gets steeper, a capitulation trade sets up, and that is the better outcome of the two. Either way the group tells us first.

Until then, stay nimble. Intraday ranges are wide, correlation is high, and it remains a hit and run tape.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Memory stocks rebounded this week with $SNDK recovering roughly 30% off Tuesday’s low after the group went down in tandem with Samsung, which sold off on earnings despite the beat.

Crude oil futures also saw a bounce this week as the official ceasefire ceased early in the week, as well as technically from a major 200 moving average.

The other major news this week was Thursday when Reuters obtained an internal $META memo laying out plans to double compute to 14 gigawatts in 2027, with its custom Iris chip going into production in September and multi-year memory supply deals locked in with Samsung and $SNDK. Two weeks ago the market read Meta subletting excess compute as an admission it had overbuilt, and that cracked the scarcity thesis underwriting the whole datacenter trade. This weeks news seemed to reverse the picture, with the overall AI complex seeing a modest recovery.

Meta stacked on top with Muse Spark 1.1, its new agentic model, and the reception was strong across the board. SemiAnalysis went as far as calling Meta on track to overtake Google’s frontier models within six months. $META closed up roughly 15% on the week, the best Mag 7 name by a wide margin.

On Friday SK Hynix priced its Nasdaq ADR at $149, raised $26.51 billion, and closed up around 13%, the largest US debut by a foreign company on record.

Underneath all of it, the still remains in the same consolidation range since early June, same levels on either side.

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Earnings season kicks off next week and the banks go first, with $JPM and the rest of the majors reporting Tuesday morning.

$SKHY as well as the broader memory group remains on watch but in a more neutral position, with $SNDK, $MU, and $WDC having now sold off and bounced, which leaves the whole complex sitting in a neutral spot with no edge on either side. It needs more time to pick a direction.

$NVDA is a change of character since Tuesday. Price had been consolidating right on the major 200sma, and the last few sessions have brought real buying pressure, large range moves higher and closes near the highs in three of the last four days.

$AMD was one of the few semis that held up cleanly through the selloff and it stayed strong through the bounce. The question is whether it can trend without getting chopped up, because the broader $SOXX action is still wide and erratic.

$META is on watch for how it digests the move. Up roughly 15% on the week off the Muse release and the compute memo, so the interest now is entirely in how it behaves after a run that size.

$WYFI is showing relative strength and worth a look. It sits in the AI infrastructure and datacenter lane, which puts it directly downstream of the compute story that just got re-validated.

$SPCX closed at new lows on Friday, below the $150 IPO open. The level underneath is $135, where the deal actually priced, and that is the obvious magnet if this keeps bleeding. Worth noting it made these lows after Nasdaq-100 inclusion, meaning it could not hold a mechanical passive bid.

$BTC and $ETH have stopped going down. Two weeks of basing, and $ETH in particular is pressing right up against a higher high break. If the low is in, this is where it shows up first.

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Closing Thoughts

There is no clear leadership right now. No group stands out, nothing is trending cleanly, which is not a coincidence, it is just another expression of the same sideways summer consolidation we have been stuck in since the start of June.

The good news is that the $QQQ is doing this in an orderly way. It has been coiling, not breaking. No real support has given way, and price is simply working off the move rather than unwinding it.

It remains a market to stay patient. The easy money period arrives after the $QQQ resolves out of range. Until then, keep running the scans as the tape can flip in the space of a few days.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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The rotation continued this week, culminating in a sharper selloff in the semiconductor group. The $DJI printed a fresh all-time high, closing at 52,865 to cap the shortened week, while $SPY barely flinched. The damage was mostly in tech and the AI complex, money leaving the crowded trade and hiding in the boring ones.

The $QQQ was the underperformer for the week as semis got taken to the woodshed, memory and equipment names leading the bleed. Both and dropped double digits while the healthcare and biotech leadership that we flagged last week held its ground.

The catalyst was Meta floating plans to start a cloud business selling access to its excess AI compute. The market took a hyperscaler willing to sublet capacity as a sign that they may have overspent on capex. That single headline put a crack in the compute scarcity thesis that has underwritten this entire datacenter buildout, and anything adjacent to that trade got sold. Chips, memory, equipment, power, the whole chain.

Korea told the same story as the Kospi sliced below 8,000 and triggered a market halt, Samsung and SK Hynix both dumping hard as the read-through from Meta ripped straight into the memory complex that has carried that market all year.

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The $QQQ is currently consolidating sideways, as price has been coiling since the trend stalled in early June, printing lower highs and higher lows into a tightening range. The two pivots that matter are the all-time high up top and the June washout low underneath. Until one of them breaks, this is a sideways summer tape, and there can be individual sector and stock trades but overall won’t have the market tailwind behind for an easy money environment just yet.

Memory is a clear watch after last week’s crack for either follow-through lower or a bounce. Korea already cast an early vote, with the Kospi ripping 5.8% on Friday while US markets were on holiday, Samsung up 8% and SK Hynix up 11% off Thursday’s washout. That sets US memory up to gap. Watching $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, and $STX for the reaction, with $SOXX/$SOXL, $DRAM, and $EWY as the read on the broader complex.

$SKHY also lists this week. SK Hynix brings its Nasdaq ADR to market, bookbuilding into Thursday and trading expected to open Friday July 10, a roughly $29 billion deal that would be the largest ADR listing on record. It holds around 60% of the HBM market, so this is a pure-play memory proxy arriving into the US market.

Crypto flashed relative strength this week, decoupling from the tech tape and catching a bid into the weekend while memory and AI names bled. It’s early and the absolute move is modest with $BTC still hanging in the low 60s, but the character change is what’s on watch.

$STRC is clawing back toward par after $MSTR rolled out its new Digital Credit Capital Framework. Strategy lifted the STRC dividend to 12%, authorized a $1 billion preferred buyback aimed squarely at pushing the security back to its $100 stated value, set a USD reserve policy, and green-lit a $1.25 billion bitcoin monetization program to fund it all. The preferred stress we flagged last week is easing.

$RDDT is the green shoot in software, holding relative strength while the rest of the growth complex chops. One to watch for a rotation back into beaten-down software leadership.

$LLY remains the healthcare leader and a potential trend-join if the rotation into the sector has legs. This is where the money leaving semis has been hiding.

Cybersecurity stayed firmly bid straight through the semi selloff. $CIBR held its ground while chips bled and the group’s leaders never broke. However the clean low-risk entries have already passed, but worth noting the strength in names like .

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Closing Thoughts

Overall there aren’t too many obvious setups heading into the week, which is mostly a function of where the indices are, completely in the middle of their range.

Nevertheless the market can flip quickly, which is why it’s important to keep the watchlist lean, keep running the scans, and let the market tell you when it’s ready to move again.

When that moment arrives, it most likely comes on the back of a $QQQ resolution and whether this consolidation breaks higher or lower. How long we wait is anyone’s guess, could be days or weeks or months. Patience is the position until the range gives way, and when it finally does, the setups will be become glaringly obvious.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Indices (week): SPY continued to pull back this week and closed under the 50-SMA. The Nasdaq closed lower than the open every day last week, a subtle sign of distribution picking up across the tape. The Dow and Russell held up better as money rotated out of mega-cap tech. By Thursday, 63% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average, up from 50% at the start of June, a sign of healthier breadth even as the headline index struggled.

Hyperscalers are now expected to spend $725bn on AI capex in 2026. Investors are shifting focus from revenue growth to returns on invested capital. The result was the Mag 7’s worst week in months, with the market rewarding the chip suppliers and punishing the spenders.

Micron surged on Wednesady after a blowout Q3 beat, with demand for high-bandwidth memory and AI data centre products extremely strong. Guidance also topped forecasts. However, it sold off after the open and traded lower into Friday’s close, a potential sign that all the good news has been discounted in the stocks huge 300% rally since April lows.

OpenAI IPO delay: The New York Times reported OpenAI is leaning toward pushing its IPO to 2027. SpaceX’s post-IPO collapse from $225 to near its listing price of $150 spooked the board. CFO Sarah Friar is pushing for the delay, citing cash burn, compute commitments, and the burden of public reporting.

SpaceX: Trading around $152, near its IPO price, after hitting $225 intraday during its debut week. Down 30% from its post-IPO high. Also acquired AI coding tool Cursor and raised $25bn via a bond sale during the week.

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The has been showing many distribution days since the character change early June, overall price remains in a range between the washout low on June 9th and the all time high level. Until this range resolves, it’s hard to have much bias inside a neutral consolidation range.

semis have been suffering from wide volatility, often a mark of turning points. After such a big rally from April it would not be surprising for the sector to pull back more, or go through a lengthy consolidation period.

One chart that personifies this parabolic run is which when viewed on a weekly timeframe, looks like a confirmed parabolic top now.

Two semis that still look constructive are and but it’s questionable whether they can break out with the overall group under pressure.

Despite the weakness in tech, there was a large breadth surge on Friday. Many other sectors in the market are performing surprisingly well. One potential scenario is a rotation out of semis into broader areas of the market.

closed at an all time high on Friday.

broke out to new highs:

the biotech ETF has been performing well after a breakout last week:

the ARK genomic revolution ETF is also a strong subsector within biotech.

cybersecurity is consolidating after a strong leg up - and could be ready to make a move.

and look like the leaders in cybersecurity at the moment:

Crypto deserves a mention for being of the weakest assets in the market right now, consistently making new lows. is also under pressure especially as the preferred trading well under par is the tell that stress is building beneath the surface.

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Closing Thoughts

The leadership is taking a breather. Money is rotating out of the big winning semis and memory names, and the question now is whether the broadening can carry the load while the $QQQ gets dragged around by a group that looks like it has topped for now. The breadth surge on Friday says the rest of the market is willing to step up. Whether it can hold the tape together without the generals is the trade to watch.

There are stocks in uptrends, but the high-momentum tech universe we usually live in is thin on setups right now. If you do not mind slower names and lower volatility, the rotation sectors are where the clean trends are. For tech specifically, the better opportunities may be tactical shorts in the memory names, if the tape continues to show weakness and that they have genuinely topped.

Zooming out and it is simple - the easy money was April and May. Since the June top we have been chopping, and a range-bound, choppy summer would not surprise anyone. It could be a time to size down, stay patient, and give the market time. The easy trends in tech will come back once $QQQ resolves out of this range first, whichever direction it chooses.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week the markets gapped up on Monday after Trump announced the Iran peace deal, carrying the snapback rally into the new week. The rest of the week came back to probe test the gap, with Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC as chair landing more hawkish than expected. But it proved a one-day reaction as buyers stepped back in and the market recovered into Thursday’s close ahead of the long weekend. The AI and tech bull market is still the main narrative here and one hawkish presser was not a character change.

With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, the war premium is bleeding out and crude lost its bid.

Technically the $QQQ is working the right side of this recovery consolidation. We remain above all upward sloping moving averages. From here it looks like a matter of time before the market presses to new highs.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Some notable ones this week:

• $AMD / $RXT | Signed a definitive agreement for phased deployment of 30 MW of AMD AI compute with Rackspace.

• $INTC / $AAPL | Trump said Apple will work with Intel to manufacture chips in the US.

• $TSEM / $MRVL | Shipped over five million coherent photonic ICs together.

• $SHAZ | Announced an oversubscribed $1.6B strategic financing to expand its AI factories.

• $HIVE | Acquiring a 32 MW data center in Boden, deepening an eight-year partnership.

• $UUUU | Received conditional US government support to accelerate rare earths and critical materials growth.

• $EOSE | Booked its first purchase order under its 2 GWh capacity reservation agreement with Frontier Power USA.

• $QURE | Got FDA clearance to file for its Huntington’s gene therapy approval.

• $MNTS | Secured a new commercial contract for its Vigoride-9 orbital service vehicle.

• $HOOD | Cutting 10% of its workforce in a restructuring.

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Watchlist

With the market recovering into an uptrend and volatility falling back down, the environment shifts back to a swing breakout regime. The read is relative strength again: who is basing, who is breaking out, and who already cleared to new highs. Setups are developing fast across semis, power, biotech, and data centers.

Semis

• $INTC | The key watch. The most important US semiconductor name, with the Trump administration invested and talking it up repeatedly. Pair that tailwind with a strong semi sector and rising CPU and AI demand, and this is a top focus for swing traders.

• While INTC remains the leader and main focus many other semis are also setting up:

Power Generation & Fuel Cells

Power for data centers has become a central theme in the AI infrastructure trade.

• $GEV | Substantial rally back.

• $BE | New all time highs Thursday, bringing fuel cells back on watch.

• $FCEL / $BLDP | Smaller cap fuel cell names back in play on the $BE move.

Data Centers

AI data centers keep showing strength with no signs of demand slowing.

• $NBIS | The clear leader, but the ideal buy point was right after the market turn. Wants some digestion or a pullback before the next entry.

• $GLXY / $RIOT / $HUT / $BRUN | Consolidating ahead of a potential breakout.

Biotech & Genomics

• $XBI / $ARKG | Biotech broke out last week, and the genomics ETF is back at prices unseen in nearly three years.

• $BEAM | The lengthiest base in the space.

• $PSNL | Recent momentum.

Software & Cyber

Cybersecurity remains the strongest pocket of software.

• $PANW | Looks like the group leader.

• $CRWD / $SNOW | Both sideways for a couple of weeks, building the next base.

Space

• $SPCX | Pulled back after pushing toward a $3 trillion cap just three days post IPO. It has offered good intraday trades nearly every day since the debut given its large daily range. Less of a directional bias here after the first rally and pullback.

Other

• $FTAI | Lengthy weekly base. Ideally forms a higher low before the pivot breakout.

• $OUST | Clearing a stage 1 base and forming a new consolidation.

Closing Thoughts

With the Iran peace deal confirmed and the market retracing much of the recent selloff, it looks like we put in a higher low. That is a healthy sign of digestion after such a strong rally off the lows. As laid out in last week’s post, the base case is that we consolidate in this range and likely press to new all time highs within a couple of weeks.

This week only bolsters that thesis. We are seeing a proliferation of emerging setups across sectors, the kind of broadening participation that tends to carry a market onward. The old saying is that it “is a market of stocks, not a stock market”, and right now plenty of those stocks look poised to advance.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

We closed last week on a near 4% Nasdaq flush, the kind of severe down day that usually sets up a bounce trade into the new week. We never got the clean entry on Monday as we gapped up, taking away the easier oversold bounce reversal.

Then on Tuesday $QQQ dropped roughly 5% intraday from the open, a rare occurence. I posted a study here:

A drop that violent isn’t normal price discovery. It’s forced selling, large deleveraging and profit taking hitting at once, the kind of positioning reset that wrings the froth out fast. Counterintuitively, that extreme type of a selloff is often where tradeable lows get formed.

The geopolitics didn’t settle any nerves midweek. Trump talked tough on Iran and floated a hard strike, and that overhang kept fear bid. Then Thursday afternoon the script flipped. He said an Iran deal was close, and the market ripped on the relief, turning the whole week around.

By Friday the tape had retraced much of Tuesday’s selloff and closed the week green. A week that opened looking like the backside of a breakdown ended up looking a lot more like a reset inside an intact uptrend.

The headline event landed Friday: the $SPCX debut. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 and closed at $160.95, up 19% from the IPO pricing, and 7.3% from the opening printm, the largest IPO in history at a valuation north of $2 trillion.

The market just absorbed a trillion-dollar market cap listing and $75B raise that closed higher on day one. That may be a sign that the bull market still has some appetite and could bode well for Anthropic’s IPO later in the year.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Some notable ones this week:

• $MRVL / $FLEX | Both added to the S&P 500 after Friday’s close, bumping $POOL and $CPB.

• $GLW / $AMZN | Amazon signed a multibillion-dollar agreement with Corning for optical fiber, cable, and connectivity.

• $APLD | Signed its third 15-year take-or-pay lease at the Delta Forge 2 AI campus with the same investment-grade hyperscaler, roughly $5.2B in contracted revenue and a backlog now near $36B across five campuses.

• $SMCI | Announced a $7B equity offering, then priced equity and equity-linked financing to fund AI orders, on the back of a rumoured $5.2B deal tied to xAI.

• $ORCL | Beat on earnings and revenue and added $20B to its planned capital raise.

• $ALAB $CRWV $NBIS $RKLB $TER | All join the Nasdaq-100 in the June rebalance.

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Watchlist

Another macro-driven open to the week, and a shortened one. Markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth.

A key event is the FOMC on Wednesday, Warsh’s first meeting and presser as chair. No move expected, they hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. This is about the dot plot and the tone he sets in his debut. How he frames the path matters more than the decision.

The other swing factor is Iran. Over the weekend Trump pushed for an imminent peace deal, even floating his birthday Sunday as the date, with the reported framework having Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the US lifts its blockade. At the time of writing, Trump has just tweeted that the peace deal is now complete. Expect further downside on oil, especially as the futures have started to break the uptrend and 50SMA over the last few weeks.

Perhaps the bigger story for the AI trade landed Friday night. The government issued an export-control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend its two newest models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security. Anthropic calls it a misunderstanding and is working to restore access. But the precedent is what matters. If the government can switch off a frontier model on national security grounds, that is a new variable in the trade. Does it push enterprises toward open source they actually control? Does regulatory risk start getting priced into the complex? Worth watching how it ripples through AI and tech this week.

Fairly sparse individual setups going into the week as most names took a hit in the pullback, so the read right now is relative strength: who held up, who rebounded hardest, and who already clawed back to new highs. That is the tell for where the next leadership comes from. More setups are likely to develop as the week progresses.

Semis

• $SNDK | One of the very few names to already print a fresh all-time high. After the last two days though, I wouldn’t chase it here without some digestion first.

• $ARM | Rebounded well off the lows, holding up better than most of the complex.

• $INTC | Six weeks of digestion now, one of the first semis to lead off the prior rally. Coiling, and could be setting up to break this multi-week consolidation soon.

Data Centers

• $NBIS | Fresh Nasdaq-100 addition. Broke its streak of descending daily bars and took out prior day highs. Looking for continuation from here.

Space

• $SPCX | On watch after the record IPO. A break of the day-one highs is the trigger, and from there I’m looking for momentum to carry.

• $SPCE | Watching for further downside as the hype fades. It ran purely on ticker confusion with $SPCX, nothing more, and that unwinds.

Software / Big Tech

• $MSFT | Hasn’t taken out a prior day high in a while, 10 red bars in a row. A simple prior day high break should be enough to trigger a bounce.

• $IGV | Same look as $MSFT, no prior day high break in multiple bars. Watch for that break to spark the bounce.

Closing Thoughts

I think we have a tradeable higher low here. The rally off Tuesday’s flush was sharp and that kind of snapback off the lows is usually the tell that the worst of the selling is behind us. I laid out the fuller read here:

Keeping in mind that the $QQQ pulled back roughly 8% from the highs, which is meaningful and the kind of flush that clears out weak hands and resets positioning. The 2000 and 2020 analogs are still the framework I’m working from. Small sample, but both were sharp pullbacks inside very strong uptrends that resolved higher once they had time to digest. If we chop sideways for a couple of weeks instead of ripping straight back, that is healthy too.

The wildcard is the Anthropic news. The export-control story is the one thing that could spook the AI trade this week, so it will be telling to see how the market handles it before leaning too hard in either direction.

As for levels, Tuesday’s low is the line in the sand. Hold above it and the higher-low thesis stays intact. Until then the job is simple: watch relative strength while the market digests. The names that hold up and rebound hardest through the chop are the ones that lead when this resolves.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

The nine-week winning streak ended, and it ended hard. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 2.8% on the week and the Nasdaq logged its worst week since the April 2025 tariff shock. We opened at record highs and closed in a tech-led rout, a clean character change from the grind we’d been riding for two months.

The tell was there early. Coming off last week’s $DELL gap and the software rally, froth was already building, and the open made it obvious. Monday, $IBM ripped almost 20% in the overnight session off an old Trump video clip talking up the stock, then bled lower the rest of the week. $MRVL surged 25% after Jensen called it a potential trillion-dollar company at Computex.

$HPE jumped 25% on a beat and raised guidance as traders ran the $DELL playbook straight into it, before it faded back to nearly fill its earnings gap.

When names are running 20 to 25% on a clip or a comment rather than the fundamentals, that is chasing, and that flavour of euphoria tends to mark a short-term top.

The indices still printed fresh highs into the froth. The S&P closed above 7,600 for the first time on Tuesday at 7,609, and the Dow tagged a new all-time intraday high. That was the peak.

Then it started. $GOOGL slid nearly 4% on news of an $80B stock sale to fund its AI buildout, and $AVGO led the chip selloff after earnings disappointed, dragging the whole semiconductor complex lower in afterhours.

Friday was the real crack, as the former undisputed leaders rolled over, and once they went, the rest of the tape followed them down.

The semiconductor ETF $SOXX closed the week down 10%, and South Korea's $EWY, levered hard to the global chip trade, finished down 14%.

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Watchlist

This is shaping up to be more of a macro week - with volatility picking back up, the focus shifts off individual stock charts and onto the indices and big tech, since they drove the selloff and they will lead whichever way we resolve from here.

Indices / Big Tech

I posted a full study on X of every QQQ -4% drop, and it’s worth reading here:

The short version: the two windows that rhyme most closely with where we sit now are January 2000 and the summer 2020 pullback, both strong uptrend regimes that absorbed a hard -4% hit without it being the end of the rally.

• $QQQ / $SPY | In both analogs, price went on to make new highs roughly a month later, but it took a few weeks of chop to work out the volatility before the clean uptrend resumed. For that read to hold, I want the 50sma to hold as support. Lose it and the analog weakens.

  

  

• Monday open | Much of the gameplan keys off where we open. The further we gap down, the higher the odds of a snapback rally. A flattish open gives less of an edge either way.

Korea / Semis

The epicentre of the damage, and the cleanest tell for whether the AI trade stabilises or keeps bleeding.

• $EWY | Down 14% on the week. Korea is a heavy player in the AI trade, so the KOSPI futures open Sunday night is an early read on risk appetite before the US even gets going.

• $SOXX / $SOXL | $MU / $SNDK | Semis and memory names that trade similarly with Korea, all part of the same trade. Watching them as confirmation alongside the KOSPI.

Crypto

Crypto has been one of the weakest assets in the complex since the ceasefire rally began, drifting sideways for two months while stocks went vertical. The moment broad weakness showed up, it broke.

• $BTC / $ETH | Both printed fresh lows last week. However, BTC seems to be holding the prior low of $60,000 for now. Time will tell whether that is a lasting bottom.

• $BMNR | Crypto treasury stocks were also in focus last week as BMNR adopted a similar preferred shares offering, similar to Strategy. MSTR also sold Bitcoin for the first time in many years, prompting some to question if they would sell further.

  

Metals

Metals also broke some key levels on Friday.

• $GLD | Broke its 200ma for the first time in three years, with GC futures cracking earlier. A genuine character change in a higher timeframe trend.

• $SLV | The high-beta metal, broke down in sympathy.

• $GDX | Also lost its 200ma, but left a clean consolidation range to trade from.

Volatility

• $VIX / $VXX | The VIX spiked almost 40% Friday, jumping out of low territory to a 21.50 reading. The question this week is whether that vol sustains and feeds further downside, or bleeds off as the market digests.

SpaceX IPO

• $SPCX | The SpaceX listing prices Friday, the biggest IPO of all time. Regardless of how the broader tape trades, an event this size should throw off plenty of opportunity.

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Closing Thoughts

This was a week where situational awareness of the market’s subtler shifts paid off. The early froth was a tell, and I had already started to talk about some attractice tactical short ideas on Wednesday. When the Nasdaq and semis reversed and the technical structure broke down Thursday into Friday, I came in with minimal long exposure and a short bias already built, positioned to capture the move down rather than wear it. The shorts kept the portfolio at highs with minimal drawdown, now ready for whatever sets up next instead of digging out of a hole.

Zooming out, the regime may be shifting. We’ve had an easy two-month grind, low volatility, swing longs and breakouts paying out in textbook easy-money conditions. That kind of environment never lasts forever, and it may need to take a breather for a few weeks while this pullback works itself out. We’re also heading into the summer months, which historically tend to run slower and choppier.

The play from here is to stay nimble and open-minded without losing sight of the bigger picture. For all the damage, this is still the first real pullback of an exceptionally strong trend, and that trend is a long way from being proven broken. Respect the volatility, trade smaller and faster while it’s elevated, and let the market show its hand before betting on which way it resolves.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we closed on the Iran framework deal gapping the market to fresh highs, with the digestion resolving to the upside. This week extended that strength into a ninth consecutive weekly gain, and it came in a holiday-shortened four-day week after Memorial Day. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580, the Dow at 51,032, and the Nasdaq at 26,973, with all three printing fresh all-time intraday highs along the way.

There were a few macro news to note which was mostly ignored by the market - fresh US “self-defense” strikes on Iran over the long weekend, April PCE at 3.8% year-on-year (the hottest in nearly three years), University of Michigan sentiment at a record low, and yet another Axios peace deal report that briefly knocked WTI below $90 before it climbed back. The tape priced all of it as noise and kept grinding higher.

Under the surface there was real rotation. Semis ran six days in a row before a sharp pullback on Wednesday, then went sideways into the end of the week to digest the move. $MU stood out, picking up a fresh price target at nearly double its current level. Then late in the week the rotation shifted hard into software, with $IGV catching a bid sparked by a bullish earnings report and a gap up in $SNOW.

The standout in AI infrastructure was $DELL, which surged 33% on Friday for its best day on record after a blowout quarter. Revenue came in at a record $43.8 billion, up 88% year-on-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $4.86, up 214%. AI-optimised server revenue exploded 757% to $16.1 billion, and the company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders on the quarter. Management raised full-year guidance to roughly $167 billion at the midpoint, up nearly 50% year-on-year, and lifted its FY27 AI server revenue outlook to $60 billion. The print reframes Dell as a core AI infrastructure name rather than a legacy hardware story.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

Some notable catalysts to be aware of from last week:

• Space (Blue Origin): A Blue Origin accident rattled the space complex late in the week, with Bezos confirming no personnel injuries but sympathy names taking the hit.

• SpaceX IPO: The road show is on track to begin in the coming weeks, keeping the whole space sector bid into the listing.

• SpaceX valuation: Reports circulated that the target was cut from $2T toward $1.8T, though Elon publicly refuted the claims on X.

• Drones: The Trump administration is reportedly weighing direct funding and potential equity stakes in domestic drone makers to cut Chinese component dependence.

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Watchlist

It’s been a fairly diverse momentum market with new catalysts emerging every week, far too many to fit in one post. If you want to keep track of every setup I’m watching and catalysts as they hit in real time, that all lives over in the Valhalla Portal as well as the discord.

Semis

• $NVDA | The Vera CPU announcement is the story with NVDA now stepping directly into the CPU and PC market, and the stock is firmly in play.

• $ARM, $AMD, $INTC | The open question into next week is whether the incumbents take any heat from NVDA’s entry, or whether the CPU pie simply expands. Worth watching how each trades relative to the headline.

AI Infrastructure / Data Centers

• $DELL | Post-earnings gap is the setup. Watching for whether it enters a constructive digestion period like $AMD and $CSCO did recently after their own gaps, rather than chasing the move.

• $CRWV | Dell tweeted about the first Rubin datacenter rack, which could spark fresh momentum across the group. $CRWV looks poised for a rally, especially off Friday’s strong close.

• $NBIS | The Aschenbrenner stake adds fuel and the chart looks ready for new all-time highs.

Drones

Fresh theme off the Trump administration’s domestic drone funding plans.

• $UMAC | At all-time highs and the named primary beneficiary, looking like the clear sector leader.

• $ONDS | Trading on huge volume and pressing right up against all-time highs.

• $RCAT | On watch as the sympathy name in the group.

Software

Last week’s rotation into software is worth tracking to see if it has legs.

• $MSFT | Just broke out of a multi-week consolidation - a breakout we flagged and entered a position in on Friday.

• have been consolidating post earnings and could be trends to join if software remain strong.

• Cybersecurity | Many names have been extremely strong but aren’t really actionable here given how extended the rallies are.

Space

• $SPCE | Seeing WallStreetBets activity and shaping up as the meme squeeze vehicle of the sector. Trading high volatility with a wide range, an active ticker in play.

• $FJET | On watch in the broader space complex.

• $ASTS, $RDW, $RKLB | All gapped down on the valuation rumors but bounced back, holding up well.

Nukes

• $IMSR, $SMR, $OKLO | The nuclear complex started seeing some constructive action last week with potential to start breaking its downtrends.

Quantum

• $QBTS, $RGTI, $INFQ, $IONQ | After digesting the initial leg up last week, these also look poised for potential breakouts.

Closing Thoughts

The market remains strong. Even with semis pulling back this week, money rotated straight into other corners of the tape, which is exactly the behaviour you want to see in a healthy bull market. There’s movement everywhere right now, from small caps to mid caps to large caps, and the charts broadly look like they could have another leg up from here.

The one thing worth watching in the coming weeks is the SpaceX IPO. Given the sheer size of the listing, there’s a real chance it pulls liquidity out of the rest of the market as capital rotates in, which could act as a short-term pullback catalyst. Worth keeping on the radar, but nothing that changes the constructive picture heading in.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we flagged the market as taking a breather and the potential start of a consolidation. The week opened heavy on bond yields. The 30-year broke out to 5.2% on Tuesday, the highest level since 2007, as the market priced in sticky inflation, a new Fed chair, and the ongoing Iran overhang. Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday, with traders now betting on zero cuts for the remainder of 2026 and a non-trivial probability of a hike. That bond move pulled equities lower into midweek.

NVDA reported Wednesday after close and delivered another stellar quarter. The board approved an additional $80B buyback and raised the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25. The stock pulled back marginally as has been the way for the last few quarters, especially after rallying into the print.

Multiple headlines through the back half of the week pointed toward an imminent Iran resolution, and the market started grinding back. Over the weekend a framework deal was reported between the U.S. and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With cash markets closed Monday for Memorial Day, the reaction played out in futures: Nasdaq futures up 1.4% and printing fresh all-time highs, ES up 1%, WTI down over 6% to roughly $90.

The IPO pipeline is also filling up. SpaceX confirmed its filing targeting the June 12 listing under $SPCX, and OpenAI is now rumored to file in the coming weeks.

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Watchlist

The market has been strong and there’s a wide spread of themes working right now, from semis to optical computing, space, data centers and their adjacents including renewable energy. The full watchlist would be too long to walk through here and lives in the Valhalla Portal, but here are some notable ones I’m watching into next week.

Semis

Semis remain one of the key leading sectors in the market. $SOXX held the 20 EMA on the daily almost to the tick and is back near highs, which is exactly the kind of constructive digestion we wanted to see after the parabolic stretch.

• $AMD | One of the leading semis. Broke out to fresh all-time highs last week on the ongoing CPU story, holding up cleanly despite $NVDA’s entrance into the CPU market.

• $SNDK, $MU | On watch as both bounce back after recent pullbacks.

• $MXL | Hasn’t given much back, consolidating tightly near highs.

Quantum

The other big sector move of the week. The Trump administration announced $2B in CHIPS Act grants across nine quantum computing companies in exchange for minority equity stakes, putting the sector squarely on the table as a strategic priority alongside semis, nuclear, and rare earths.

• $IBM | $1B grant to build Anderon, America’s first purpose-built quantum foundry, plus IBM committing another $1B in cash. However the stock remains under the long term 200-SMA

• $GFS | $375M for domestic quantum chip manufacturing capacity. Same theme on the foundry side, but stock is at all time highs.

• $INFQ, $RGTI, $QBTS | The speculative end. Each receiving ~$100M, all posted multi-day rallies. Large intraday ranges and strong liquidity make these clean trading vehicles into next week.

Data Centers / Neoclouds

• $NBIS | Rallied Thursday on a price target hike, continues to digest recent strength. Still the clear leader.

• $APLD | Hit a data center milestone Thursday and printed a new high.

• $CIFR, $IREN | Both have been in long weekly bases that could break in the near term. These are the names to watch for the next rotation up.

• $HIVE | New Canadian data center catalyst, with Leopold Aschenbrenner (popular growth investor) taking a position.

• $HUT | Still on watch after digesting around the $100 mark post earnings gap.

Power

Fuel cells and renewable energy have been a strong theme as power constraints remain a structural bottleneck for the data center buildout. This is the picks-and-shovels angle on the AI infrastructure trade.

• $BE, $FCEL, $BLDP | All had strong rallies last week and require some digestion.

• had a major earnings move but has since pulled back and is potentially forming a higher low.

Space

With the SpaceX IPO confirmed for June 12, the space complex saw broad strength last week as sympathy bids start to filter in.

• $RKLB | Gapped down on the announcement of a $3B ATM, but seemingly didn’t tap it. Recovered the drop and pushed to fresh all-time highs on a $89.5M Space Force satellite contract.

• $ASTS | The SpaceX competitor angle but has been up 2 strong days already.

• $RDW | New highs.

• $DXYZ | Closed end fund that holds SpaceX, has been seeing strong momentum.

• Other space stocks can be found in the Valhalla Portal theme watchlists:

Finally it’s worth noting that /CL crude oil futures gapped down on Monday after the Iran peace deal news and could be breaking the 50-SMA for the first time since the war started.

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Closing Thoughts

Heading into the week with the Iran peace deal looming, crude breaking down, and the market gapping to all-time highs, the digestion from last week was resolved quickly to the upside - another sign of the incredible strength in this tape.

Breakouts have been working across the board, but it’s still prudent to take proper entries rather than chase extended rallies. Plenty of charts look constructive heading in, and there’s no doubt we’ll see more interesting developments across the AI space over the week.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal