Coming into the week, markets were carrying oversold conditions from the prior week’s relentless selling. Monday offered no relief, with all-day selling pressure extending the drawdown and keeping the bear case firmly in control.

The turn came Tuesday. Reports circulated that Iran’s president had approached the U.S. about a ceasefire, a claim Trump amplified publicly before Iran’s foreign ministry flatly denied it as “false and baseless.” The brief window was enough to send oil lower, with WTI pulling back toward $100 and Brent dipping briefly below that level as traders priced in a faster resolution to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

That optimism did not last. Wednesday night, Trump addressed the nation and struck an escalatory tone, vowing to hit Iran harder over the coming weeks with no clear off-ramp provided. Thursday opened with a sharp gap down across indices as crude staged a powerful rally, eventually closing up 11.1% at $111.

What followed was more significant than the gap itself. Buyers stepped in immediately at the open and absorbed supply throughout the session, finishing the day well off the lows. This is the definition of a news failure to the downside: a clean escalation catalyst that the market refused to sell.

Every week in March ended with indices selling off into the weekend. Thursday’s price action was the first meaningful character change since the war began. Stocks closing strong into a long holiday weekend, with participants willingly carrying risk premium through Good Friday, is a notable shift in behaviour.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Dow added nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq led with 4.4%. The first weekly gain for all three since the Iran conflict began, and the S&P’s largest weekly rise in four months.

Macro and Jobs

The March nonfarm payrolls print, released Friday while markets were closed for Good Friday, came in at +178,000 against a consensus of +59,000, reversing February’s -133,000. Unemployment edged down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. Goldman Sachs estimated that weather normalization, resolved strikes, and seasonal adjustments accounted for roughly 122,000 of those gains, softening the headline beat considerably. Fed futures moved to price in a 77.5% probability of rates on hold through year-end, with persistent oil-driven inflation leaving the central bank little room to act.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Before getting into individual names, it is worth flagging some developments over the weekend that could shape the tape materially in the coming weeks. Reports emerged of increased ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iraq among the countries declared exempt from restrictions as Iran continues to negotiate arrangements with regional partners.

Additionally, Andreas Steno Larsen published a contrarian piece on X arguing the oil supply shock could be approaching its end within three to four weeks. If that call proves correct, it would be a significant tailwind for equity indices and could mark a top in crude.

From a technical standpoint, the Thursday and Friday highs from last week are the immediate levels to watch. A break and follow-through above that two-day range would be a constructive signal. $SPY and $QQQ are both within striking distance of reclaiming their 200-day moving averages, while $IWM has been the strongest of the three, having held the 200-day moving average considerably better throughout the drawdown.

The macro backdrop remains news-driven. Beyond the major indices and crude, several stories and sectors are worth tracking into next week.

SpaceX and the Space Sector

The SpaceX IPO trade reignited this week with reports of a valuation increase to $2 trillion. The three publicly traded proxies that hold SpaceX shares directly could offer a swing trade opportunity and run into the IPO event: and .

More broadly, the space sector has remained one of the stronger pockets of the market. The ETFs , , , and reflect that relative strength at the index level.

Within the space stock basket, names worth tracking include .

Fresh IPOs

is a recent drone IPO that closed above its IPO highs this week. A stock printing strength above its IPO price in a difficult tape is worth monitoring for further momentum.

Private Credit

received negative news Friday around further redemptions in two of its major private credit funds, though it closed well off the lows. Worth watching to see how it digests that news into next week.

Memory

Memory stocks held up well throughout the latest market pullback, showing relative strength when most of the market was under pressure. and remain on watch.

Semiconductors

The preferred focus within semis is on names that remain in uptrends and have held their technical structure. and both held the 200-day moving average and stayed within their base consolidation ranges during the market drawdown.

had a notable catalyst two weeks ago with the announcement of a new chip product and entry into the GPU market. also strong but may have already provided their best entry points given the breakout on Thursday.

remains less attractive by comparison, having broken down from its multi-month trading range and still sitting below the 200-day moving average, technically in a brief downtrend still.

reported Q1 deliveries and production rose year-over-year but fell from the prior quarter. More notably, it was visibly weak on Thursday, closing near the lows of the session on a day when the broader market was finishing near highs. That divergence is worth noting.

Photonic Computing

Photonic computing stocks have been among the strongest groups in the market and largely remained in uptrends throughout the recent market downdraft, holding above key moving averages. , , , and are the names to track here. Setups are not yet fully actionable across the group, but the relative strength warrants keeping them on the radar.

Closing Thoughts

The weight of evidence this week tilted toward the bulls for the first time since the conflict began. Oversold conditions, a news failure to the downside, a strong close into a long weekend, and early signs of a potential resolution in the Strait all point in the same direction. That does not mean the all-clear has been sounded. The tape remains headline-driven and crude remains the variable that everything else trades around. But the character of price action shifted this week, and that is worth respecting. The levels are clear, the catalysts are in view, and the market has shown it is willing to buy. How it handles the follow-through next week will tell us a great deal about whether this is a genuine turn or simply a relief rally in a still-broken trend.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

Familiar Pattern, Darker Outcome

The market indices just closed with five straight weeks of losses. The Monday relief rally arrived again but was the weakest yet, and by Wednesday, with indices still pinned below the 200-day SMA, the selling resumed. It accelerated into the weekend as it has consistently for weeks, with the S&P 500 closing at a seven-month low. The Dow entered correction territory. The Nasdaq was the worst hit with Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia all breaking down technically this week.

The VIX closed at its highest level since last April. Crude oil is now threatening to push above the prior highs set over the past two weeks, a potential breakout that would add further pressure to an already uncomfortable macro picture. Gold, after weeks of volatility, finally stabilized on Friday, offering a first tentative signal that safe haven behavior may be returning.

Iran: No Progress

The U.S. sent a 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan. Iran rejected it and countered with five points of its own, including a demand for control over the Strait. Trump extended the deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. Now there are talks of a potential ground invasion into Iran in the coming weeks.

The Rate Picture Shifts

Markets have moved from pricing two Fed cuts in 2026 to a 50% probability of a hike, admist renewed inflation fears, largely driven by surging energy prices.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

The dominant setup heading into next week centers on how Monday opens. After two consecutive sessions of heavy selling with unfilled gaps on the , the market is in a position where a gap down at the open could trigger the kind of panic capitulation move that typically marks at least a short term low. The key word is short term. Even in sustained downtrends, violent countertrend bounces are common, and the longer term 50-day SMA breadth indicator has not reached the extreme levels, historically around 10, that tend to mark durable bottoms. A bounce, if it comes, should be treated as a bounce first and a bottom second.

The primary vehicles for tracking this move are the megacaps that have led the breakdown.

broke down on Thursday after layoff announcements, and is now down almost 12% in the last two sessisons. It’s approaching the $500 major level from last April tariff lows.

has been seeing heavy selling pressure lately, closing lower than the open for the past 9 sessions, with 8 of them closing lower than the prior day. It’s also trading below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) by the largest margin since the 2008 financial crisis.

was arguably one of the stronger megacaps still above the 200 SMA, but also broke down with the market. The recent move puts it within distance of a 200 SMA test, not seen since last July.

is also worth noting. Despite breaking major support, it held up better than the rest of the group through most of the week and was the last of the megacaps to give way on Friday. As $170 was a big multi-month level, it remains worth watching technically.

Notable mentions for relative strength names that have held up better through the selling: and .

with crude oil futures potentially breaking out to new highs, watch the microcap oil stocks to see if they have a secondary deadcat rally.

remains strong and looks like it could break above $300.

has been showing relative strength in the renewable energy sector.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

The Same Playbook, The Same Result

For the third consecutive week, the market ran the same script. Sunday night futures gapped down on weekend geopolitical anxiety. Monday delivered a relief rally when the worst-case scenario failed to materialize. And by Friday, the risk premium reasserted itself and equities sold off into the close. Hope on Monday, reality by Friday. The pattern has become the market’s dominant rhythm, and nothing this week broke it.

Oil: Rangebound Chaos

WTI crude futures traded in a roughly $92 to $100 range this week, the price oscillating as competing headlines pulled in opposite directions.

Brent had retreated from its crisis peak above $119 to around $102 as the week opened, offering some relief. That was short-lived. Early in the week, Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields, pushing Brent back toward $110. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. warplanes and helicopters were beginning operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the news failed to produce any sustained equity relief. Brent crude is now up nearly 50% since the start of the Iran war. The Strait remains the central variable in global energy markets, and until that situation resolves, the oil risk premium is not going away.

Equities: Four Consecutive Weekly Losses

Monday’s bounce was brief as the S&P 500 gained around 1% and the Nasdaq led with a 1.2% advance on Monday, with the AI complex showing some life. It did not last. The FOMC decision mid-week and renewed geopolitical pressure into the weekend eroded the gains entirely. By Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Nasdaq plunged 1.8% to six-month lows, and the Dow fell nearly 1%. The S&P 500 closed at 6,506, marking four consecutive weekly losses for the first time since March 2025.

The Nasdaq closed below its 200-day SMA on Wednesday following the post-FOMC selloff, falling through its November low in the process. The more significant development this week was finally breaking down from the choppy consolidation range it had been grinding in since early February. That breakdown resolved the indecision decisively to the downside, with triple witching options expiry on Friday adding a further layer of selling pressure.

VIX: Elevated and Restless

The VIX closed Friday at 26.77, up over 11% on the session, spiking sharply as equities sold off into the weekend. Over the past month, the index has holding above the 20s, signifying an elevated volatility regime, reflecting persistent uncertainty in the markets.

FOMC: Hawkish Hold

The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% as expected. The dot plot was the real event. The median year-end projection held at 3.4%, but four to five members moved from projecting two cuts to one. The probability of a June cut collapsed from 56% to 23% over the course of the week. Oil is pushing inflation expectations higher while growth is being marked lower.

Gold: Historic Breakdown

Gold fell over 10% on the week, its largest weekly decline since 1983. The move took price through the 50-day SMA, which had acted as dynamic support throughout the extended uptrend since the breakout last September. The clean break of the 50-day is typically a signal that the longer-timeframe trend has been broken.

Crypto: Failed Breakout

Crypto showed relative strength last week and briefly offered a glimmer of decoupling potential. Monday’s session offered some follow-through, but the breakout attempt failed. Bitcoin faded through the week, closing near the $68,900-$69,300 range. A failed breakout in this environment is not surprising. The longer-term downtrend from the February highs remains intact.

Breadth: Approaching Oversold Territory

Market breadth deteriorated sharply into the weekly close and is now approaching levels that have historically preceded short-term bounces. With only 20% of S&P 500 members trading above their 5-day moving average, 18% above the 20-day, and 22% above the 50-day, the short-term breadth readings are compressing toward the 10% zone that has historically triggered at least a tactical bounce, even within established downtrends. That does not make it a buy signal in isolation, but it does suggest the market may be approaching a point of short-term exhaustion on the downside.

The 200-day MA breadth reading tells a different story. At 42%, it reflects a market that is weak and deteriorating, but not yet at the kind of extremes that have historically marked meaningful lows. There is still room for further damage before breadth reaches a genuinely washed-out condition. The picture overall is one of a market that could see a short-term relief bounce in the week ahead simply due to oversold conditions, but where the underlying structure remains broken enough that any bounce should be treated with skepticism rather than conviction.

Looking Ahead

The market has settled into a behavioral routine that is recognizable and exhausting. Breaking it will require either a material resolution on the geopolitical front or a catalyst large enough to shift the narrative. Neither appears imminent. The Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The Fed is on hold and leaning hawkish. Yields are rising. Breadth is deteriorating. The major indices SPY and QQQ closed below its 200-day SMA. The burden of proof sits with the bulls.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

With the VIX elevated and major indices breaking key technical levels, this is likely to be a macro and market-driven week. Correlations tend to tighten during selloffs, meaning individual stock setups will be fighting the tape. Position sizing and risk management matter more than usual.

: Both names showed relative strength on Thursday, briefly standing out in an otherwise ugly tape. Friday erased it all as broader index pressure overwhelmed the move. Watching for whether that Thursday strength reasserts itself or was simply a failed breakout.

: Tumbled 33.3% following chip smuggling charges against its co-founder. A headline-driven collapse of that magnitude rarely finds an immediate floor.

: Broke down from a multi-month range this week. The breakdown is meaningful from a technical standpoint - a stock that had been range-bound for months resolving lower deserves some attention.

: Approaching the multi-month support area around $170 that has held consistently since last July. The key question this week is whether that level holds again or whether the broader market pressure is finally enough to crack it.

: The European natural gas name saw heavy volume on Friday, worth monitoring for follow-through as energy infrastructure remains in focus amid the broader conflict.

: LNG names were in the spotlight this week after Qatar’s energy plant was hit, with both names breaking out on the news. Watching for continuation as the energy supply disruption narrative evolves.

: The drone IPO began to fade this week after its remarkable post-listing rally.

: Held its earnings gap, a constructive sign in a market that has been punishing any sign of weakness.

: Remained strong during the broader market selloff after pricing an upsized convertible offering. The ability to hold up while everything else was selling is a notable show of underlying demand.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

It was another week where the market attempted to find its footing and came up short. A sharp reversal off Monday’s gap downs gave way to a slow fade through the rest of the week, and by Friday the indices had closed below where they opened on Monday. The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, the economic data has deteriorated further, and the tape is reflecting all of it.

Oil: The Blowoff That Wasn’t

After the prior week’s violent move higher, oil opened Sunday with what looked like an exhaustion gap and spent the first part of the week giving back some of those gains. Mean reversion took hold early and there was a window where the geopolitical premium appeared to be at least partially unwinding.

That window closed quickly. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, Iran’s supreme leader publicly reiterated there would be no reopening, and with no credible path to de-escalation visible, buyers came back into crude through the back half of the week. WTI settled at $98.71 by Friday, and Brent crossed $100 for the first time since August 2022, now sitting roughly 40% above its level before the Iran strikes began. The Defense Secretary’s comments that the situation was under control did little to move the needle, and markets continued to price in a prolonged disruption rather than a near-term resolution.

Equities: Rallying Into Resistance

Monday opened with broad gap downs across SPY, QQQ, and IWM, and the intraday recovery off those lows looked like it had some momentum behind it. The problem was where that recovery ran out of steam. All three indices rallied directly into declining moving averages and stalled, unable to reclaim them on a closing basis, and spent the rest of the week drifting lower from there.

The weekly close ended up below Monday’s opening print, which is about as clear a summary of the week’s price action as you can get. SPY is now forming a rounding top just above a support level that has held for several months but is starting to look fragile. Both SPY and QQQ are within striking distance of breaking their 200 SMAs, and the overall structure of the chart looks fragile. The S&P 500 is now down 3% year to date and sitting at its lowest closing level since late November.

The Macro Data

The economic releases this week added to the pressure rather than offering any relief. Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.7% annualized, nearly half the prior estimate of 1.4% and well below the 1.5% consensus. February payrolls came in at -92,000, a significant miss against expectations that had been centered around a gain of 50,000 to 60,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The combination of slowing growth and a weakening labor market, layered on top of an oil shock still working its way through input costs, is not an environment that makes rate cuts straightforward. Markets are now pricing in a single cut for all of 2026, compared to three cuts that were expected at the start of the year.

Crypto: Relative Strength Worth Noting

While equities were struggling to hold any recovery, BTC and ETH were telling a somewhat different story. Both have largely avoided the selling pressure that has weighed on the broader market in recent weeks, and that divergence has become increasingly difficult to ignore.

There was a strong push higher on Friday, though it ultimately retraced through the session and left neither asset with a meaningful close above recent ranges. Over the weekend, support held, and as of now both remain rangebound. The overall picture is not one of breakout momentum, but the fact that crypto has held its ground while equities have continued to deteriorate is a data point worth keeping on the radar heading into the week ahead.

VIX

Volatility remained elevated throughout the week, with the VIX spiking to an 11-month high before partially pulling back to close Friday at 27.19. Options pricing across the board reflects a market that is still highly volatile.

Going into Next Week

The primary driver of everything else right now is the Hormuz situation, and it has not meaningfully changed. A decisive break below the 200 SMA on both SPY and QQQ would open up room for lower, and with the macro backdrop where it currently is, there is not an obvious catalyst to prevent that test from happening.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

The macro calendar is heavy this week, with two major events running simultaneously. The FOMC meets March 17 and 18, with the rate decision and updated dot plot on Wednesday afternoon. Given how aggressively rate cut expectations have been repriced in recent weeks, the dot plot will likely draw more attention than the decision itself. Running at the same time, Nvidia’s GTC conference kicks off March 16 and runs through the 19th.

With VIX still elevated, the week will likely trade with high correlation across the tape. Relative strength is worth tracking but it is better used as a shopping list for after a correction has run its course rather than a reason to buy into ongoing weakness.

reports earnings this week and is one of the stronger stocks in the market right now. The result will be closely watched for what it signals for the broader memory complex, including .

is important to watch across the week given GTC running alongside a sensitive macro backdrop. The stock’s reaction to both the conference and the broader market will be telling.

has been holding up strongly since earnings and remains one of the more constructive setups on the long side.

broke out this week following news of a $2 billion Nvidia investment and is showing some of the stronger price action in the space.

and both saw increased volatility after being mentioned in Citrini’s latest post, worth monitoring for follow-through.

is an energy microcap seeing movement driven by the war premium building in oil since the Hormuz closure.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

It was a week that delivered volatility in spades, with multiple macro shocks colliding across equities, commodities, and global markets simultaneously.

Korea’s Parabolic Run Hits a Wall

The South Korea ETF’s extraordinary run, which had been one of the standout global stories over the past several weeks, finally reversed course this week. Parabolic moves rarely end gracefully, and this one was no exception. After weeks of relentless buying fueled by AI-driven demand for semiconductors and memory, the index ran out of buyers. The reversal serves as a reminder that even the strongest trends need to breathe, and that chasing price at extended levels carries real risk.

Oil Takes Center Stage

The dominant story of the week was oil, after Saturday’s significant attack on Iranian energy infrastructure sent shockwaves through commodity markets. Oil had already been tracking higher into the event, but the weekend news turned an already-tense setup into a full-blown supply shock narrative. Oil continued to rise every day throughout the week, culminating into Sunday’s futures open, which saw crude gapping up close to 20%, one of the more violent overnight moves in recent memory.

The Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which a meaningful share of global oil supply flows, is now effectively deadlocked. No oil is moving through. The severity of the disruption is drawing comparisons to some of the worst supply shock episodes of the past decade, and by most assessments this situation ranks among the more serious ones we have seen.

Equity index futures also opened sharply lower on Sunday open to kick off the week. The Russell 2000 futures was down approximately 4% at the open, with small caps bearing the brunt of the selling given their sensitivity to energy costs and domestic economic conditions.

VIX Breaks Out, SPY and QQQ in a Vulnerable Spot

Fear is back. The VIX broke out meaningfully this week, confirming that traders are no longer willing to dismiss the macro risks building in the background. Both and are now sitting in technically vulnerable positions. The indices had been holding above key moving averages through the earlier chop, but the combination of an oil shock, a VIX breakout, and deteriorating risk appetite has put those levels in jeopardy.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

It will be a volatile, macro-driven week. Iran and geopolitical headlines remain the primary variable to monitor. Any meaningful reversal in oil will likely require either a clear de-escalation or a fundamental shift in the Hormuz situation. Until that happens, expect oil to remain elevated and reactive to every headline.

Oil and Energy

CL and are the obvious vehicles to watch. The oil microcap names that were in play last week, , , and , will continue to see elevated volatility and wide trading ranges. These are not set-and-forget trades. They move fast in both directions and need to be managed accordingly.

Semiconductors and Memory

and , two names that had been holding up relatively well as market leaders, finally started to roll over this week under the weight of broader market weakness. Both are now trading below short-term moving averages, which shifts the near-term bias. Worth watching to see if they reclaim those levels or continue to deteriorate.

Drone Stocks

and both had sharp rallies earlier in the week but gave back the majority of their gains, formin a bearish wick. Depending on further market weakness could be vehicles to join on the short side.

Earnings

and both had strong post-earnings reactions this week, a positive signal in an otherwise difficult tape. Earnings-driven strength in a down market tends to stand out.

HIMS and NVO

Late Friday, Bloomberg reported that Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers have resolved their legal dispute and are preparing to announce a new partnership to sell Wegovy on the Hims platform, with the announcement expected as early as Monday. surged nearly 40% in after-hours trading, trending as the top name on Stocktwits, while gained around 2%. The backstory here is a long and bitter one. The two companies had a similar arrangement last year, but Novo scrapped it after Hims refused to stop marketing compounded versions of the drugs. This time around the settlement comes with the expectation of stricter compliance with FDA-approved formulations. A significant catalyst for both names heading into the open on Monday.

SPY Additions

Friday also brought news that , , and are being added to the S&P 500. Index inclusion events tend to drive mechanical buying pressure in the near term and are worth monitoring as the additions are implemented.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

The Citrini Selloff

Markets gapped down hard on Monday after Citrini Research’s “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” went viral over the weekend. The 5,000-word thought experiment, written as a fictional dispatch from June 2028, painted a scenario where aggressive AI adoption hollows out white-collar employment, crushes consumer spending, and ultimately crashes the S&P 500 38% from hypothetical October 2026 highs. Michael Burry amplified it on X with the caption: “And you think I’m bearish.” The post racked up roughly 28 million views at the time of writing.

The damage was immediate. Enterprise software stocks bore the brunt, with IGV hitting new 52-week lows, falling around 5% on Monday alone and extending its brutal 2026 decline to nearly -30% YTD. Financials and services companies named in the piece also took collateral damage, as markets priced in the second-order implications of AI-driven disruption to lending, insurance, and intermediation businesses.

Software Bounce

After the Monday washout, software staged a relief bounce through the rest of the week. Anthropic’s enterprise showcase on Tuesday, highlighting partnerships with Salesforce and other major software vendors, helped ease the panic. IGV recovered roughly +2% on Tuesday as investors reconsidered whether the AI threat to software had been overpriced in a single session. The bounce carried into Wednesday and Thursday, though it was modest relative to the damage already done. By Friday the sector gave back some ground again, and the broader question of whether software’s -30% YTD decline represents a buying opportunity or a structural re-rating remains very much open.

NVDA Earnings: Beat, But Still Stuck

Nvidia was the main event of the week. Tech rallied optimistically into Wednesday’s after-hours report, and delivered on virtually every metric. Q4 revenue came in at $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, beating consensus by roughly $2 billion. Data center revenue hit $62.3 billion, up 75% YoY. EPS of $1.62 topped the $1.53 estimate. Gross margins recovered to 75.2%, ahead of guidance. And the Q1 FY27 outlook of $78 billion blew past the $72.6 billion Street estimate.

All of that, and the stock still could not break out of the sideways range it has been trading in since its all-time high of $212 back in October 2025. NVDA popped initially after hours, rising about 3.5%, then gave most of it back. By Friday’s close it had actually sold off to $177, roughly 4% lower on the day and well below where it started the week. For a stock printing 73% revenue growth with accelerating guidance, the inability to sustain upside tells you something about the positioning and expectations already baked in.

SMH also flashed a false breakout, briefly tagging new highs around $427 before fading sharply into the end of the week. The 52-week range now reads $170 to $428, and that mid-week rejection at resistance is worth noting for anyone watching semis closely.

Crypto

Crypto remained range-bound. Bitcoin hovered around $65,000-$67,000 for most of the week, taking directional cues from risk sentiment rather than any crypto-specific catalyst. The weekend Iran escalation pressured BTC briefly below $65,000 before a partial recovery.

Korea: Parabolic Territory

South Korea’s KOSPI was one of the biggest stories of the week and continues to be a top watch heading into March. The index crossed 6,000 for the first time on Wednesday, surging past the milestone just 34 days after breaching 5,000, the fastest 1,000-point advance in its history. By Thursday, post-NVDA euphoria pushed KOSPI to a record close of 6,307, a 3.67% single-day gain driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together now account for roughly 40% of total KOSPI market cap.

The index is up over 47% YTD and has climbed 175% from its April 2025 trough, powered by the memory-chip supercycle and HBM demand from AI infrastructure buildout. Governance reforms under President Lee Jae-myung have also helped close the long-standing “Korea discount,” drawing foreign and domestic capital back into the market.

On Friday, the KOSPI pulled back about 1% as global funds sold a record 6.8 trillion won ($4.7 billion) in a single session of profit-taking. But the index still held above 6,200, recovering reasonably well. The intraday pullback was notable but not destructive.

This remains a top watch in the coming weeks. Parabolic moves like this tend to produce the highest volatility near the peaks, and the concentration risk in Samsung and SK Hynix is extreme. Any disruption to the memory cycle or a shift in HBM demand expectations could trigger a sharp correction. Keep it on the radar.

Metals and Oil: War Premium Builds Into the Close

Heading into Friday, metals started to get bid. Gold and silver both made notable moves higher as the market began front-running potential weekend escalation involving Iran. Crude oil also firmed, closing at $67.02, up nearly 3% on the day. The positioning felt deliberate, with commodities traders pricing in geopolitical risk ahead of the weekend.

That risk materialized in full. On Saturday, the US and Israel launched a massive joint military operation against Iran. Airstrikes targeted leadership compounds, military installations, and strategic sites across Tehran and other cities. Iranian state media confirmed early Sunday that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strikes, along with the country’s defense minister, the IRGC commander, and several other top officials.

Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, hitting US bases in the region and spreading the conflict across the Gulf.

As of Sunday’s futures open:

• Brent crude jumped roughly 11% opening at ~$75/barrel

• Gold rose ~1.6%, trading above $5,300/oz, extending its seventh straight monthly gain

• S&P 500 futures dropped nearly 1%

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell ~1.2%

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Given the scale of this weekend’s geopolitical shock and the uncertainty still unfolding in the Middle East, this could easily be a macro-driven week where individual stock catalysts take a backseat to headline risk. $VIX nd will be the first things to watch at Monday’s open as the market reprices volatility around a live military conflict and the Strait of Hormuz situation. The major indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) will set the tone early.

Oil, silver, and gold will be in play all week. Brent crude is already up 10% on the Sunday open, gold is trading above $5,300, and silver is pressing toward $95. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, these moves have room to run significantly further. Watch for momentum in small and microcap oil names: , .

Defense and drone stocks could also find a bid as the market processes the implications of an active US military campaign. .

remains on watch after selling off post-earnings despite beating on every metric. The stock dropped to $177 by Friday’s close, well below its mid-week highs, and has now spent over four months unable to break out of the $170-$210 range.

and trade in correlation with the Korea story. With the KOSPI up 47% YTD and Samsung/SK Hynix driving the memory supercycle, any continuation or sharp reversal in Korean equities will likely pull these names along with it.

after walking away from the WBD merger on Thursday. Paramount Skydance’s $31/share bid was deemed a “superior proposal,” Netflix declined to match, and collected a $2.8 billion termination fee for its trouble. The stock closed up over 13% on the day on relief that the deal is dead.

(Block) after Jack Dorsey cut nearly half the workforce, laying off 4,000 employees, and directly attributed the decision to AI efficiency gains. Dorsey predicted most companies will make similar structural changes within the next year. This is both a company-specific catalyst and a broader signal for the AI-displacement theme that has been weighing on software and services all year.

Space names are in focus after Bloomberg reported Friday that SpaceX is preparing to file confidentially for an IPO as soon as March, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion. If that filing materializes, it should provide a valuation anchor for the entire space sector. , , all trade as public proxies for SpaceX exposure and could see increased flows.

Quantum stocks sold off after earnings this week, with threatening to make new lows.

Share

Weekly recaps only tell part of the story. For daily market coverage, live commentary at the open, real-time trade ideas, and watchlists, join the Discord community below.

Join Discord

It was a choppy week that ultimately ended with small gains. The big story on Friday was the Supreme Court ruling 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority in using emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose sweeping “reciprocal” global tariffs. In response, Trump signaled he would impose a temporary 10% levy on imports under a different statute (Section 122 of the Trade Act), giving a 150-day window. All major indices remain rangebound despite the positive reaction and rally on Friday.

Value-oriented and defensive sectors continue to outperform, including consumer staples, materials, energy, and industrials with all four up more than 10% this year.

One key chart heading into the week was the ETF, a measure of the collective strength of the Magnificent 7 stocks and a heavily weighted component of the major tech indices. Despite the pressure on the sector, the ETF managed to hold its key 200-day simple moving average this week, a level that will be closely watched going forward.

Metals were the standout winners of Friday’s session. Gold closed above $5,100 and silver surged back above $84, with silver up around 7.5% on the day. The moves were possibly driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the tariff ruling.

Anthropic’s release of Claude Code Security on Friday added another headwind for the software sector, with cybersecurity names bearing the brunt of the selling as AI disruption concerns continue to weigh on the space.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Earnings season continues with Nvidia firmly in focus on Wednesday afternoon. Technically, the stock has consolidated within a range for the past six months and could be primed for a breakout if the report and market reaction are favourable.

Other notable names to watch this week:

reports while sitting at 52-week lows after a prolonged selloff, making it a closely watched turnaround candidate.

and are worth monitoring in the datacenter space.

and are both forming bear flags, a technical setup that could be triggered after earnings.

and are some names to track in the AI energy theme.

had a strong move last week on the back of a Palantir partnership announcement and now heads into its own earnings report.

continues to attract attention as one of the more popular growth names in the space sector.

was hit on Friday following Blue Owl funding news and also reports earnings this week.

Other stocks to watch:

is trading in a tight technical range and could see a breakdown below the $39 level.

was a standout performer post-earnings, showing impressive relative strength for five consecutive days while the broader market struggled. Friday's pullback appeared to be more a casualty of group weakness than any stock-specific deterioration, making it an interesting name to watch for a potential bid as the dust settles.

One interesting market to watch globally is the South Korea ETF, which has been exceptionally strong, driven by AI-fueled demand for semiconductors and memory, with SK Hynix contributing a significant portion of the index’s move. and are potential vehicles to keep track of.

Meanwhile, US based memory stocks and are holding up well and are on watch this week to see if they can make a continuation leg higher, particularly if the South Korea semiconductor momentum carries over.

after rallying over 300% off its lows, made another notable move last week.

Cybersecurity stocks came under pressure last week following the Anthropic Claude Code Security news. Watching to see if selling continues across and .

Many of the cybersecurity names overlap heavily with the software ETF, and the ETF’s $80 level has emerged as a critical line in the sand. What makes the setup particularly striking is that despite significant retail inflows into the space, the price continues to lag, suggesting that institutional distribution may be quietly overwhelming the buying. A decisive break below $80 would be a meaningful technical deterioration worth taking seriously.

Final Thoughts

It has been a choppy couple of weeks, with markets grinding through a wall of uncertainty. With some key clearing events now in the rear view mirror, notably the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and NVDA earnings looming on Wednesday, the market is approaching a potential inflection point. The next few sessions could go a long way in determining whether this consolidation resolves higher or whether the recent weakness has more room to run.

As the old trading adage goes: from consolidation comes expansion. The longer and tighter the range, the more powerful the eventual move tends to be. The spring is coiled, and the market is telling us it is almost ready to show its hand.

Share

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

This was another choppy week beneath the surface.

and remain rangebound, but importantly both are trading under the 50sma yet again. In a sideways market, the moving average doesn’t matter as much, but the slope rolling over shows that momentum has clearly weakened. Every reclaim attempt has failed to produce sustained momentum.

The indices are not truly broken. There is no impulsive downside expansion. But structurally, this is not a healthy tape either. It is a grind lower with failed rallies.

and continue to tell a slightly different story. Both remain in defined uptrends. Small caps and industrials are holding structure far better than large cap growth.

That divergence matters.

We are in a split market. Growth is weak. Broader value and industrial exposure is holding.

The environment remains choppy and leaning bearish until proven otherwise.

Leadership - Not Healthy

and have been rallying. When money flows into staples and utilities, that is traditionally risk off behaviour. Investors are prioritising defensives over growth.

At the same time, and remain strong. Energy and industrials continue to benefit from the infrastructure and AI build out narrative. Power demand, grid expansion and capex cycles are supporting these groups.

This is not broad risk appetite. It is selective capital allocation.

That is why the tape feels difficult. Leadership is fragmented.

Growth & Risk Assets

remains under its 200sma. That alone tells you speculative growth is not in favour.

Bitcoin has bounced but remains fairly sideways. Given it is in a major downtrend across higher timeframes, this consolidation is not surprising. Until trend shifts, rallies are tactical rather than structural.

broke its range this week. However, it has done so directly into the 200sma.

This is a pivotal area:

1. Bullish scenario - Undercut and reclaim of this level, followed by expansion and hold.

2. Bearish scenario - Failure at the 200sma and continuation lower. That would reinforce the idea that mega cap leadership is deteriorating.

This is one of the more important tells going into next week.

AI Disruption Spreading Across Sectors

One of the more important themes this year has been AI disruption compressing software multiples. Since the start of the year, many software names have sold off as AI coding tools and automation pressures raised questions around long term margins and competitive moats.

That theme broadened this week.

Financials were hit after Altruist introduced AI-powered tax planning inside its Hazel platform, positioning it as a tool that allows advisors to generate tax strategies in minutes. The reaction in names like SCHW reflected the market’s sensitivity to AI eating into traditional service models.

Later in the week, freight stocks also saw sharp selling as AI-driven logistics and optimisation concerns resurfaced. Whether justified or not, the market is clearly repricing businesses where automation risk is high.

This is becoming a cross-sector narrative.

It is no longer just software being questioned. The market is actively assessing which industries can be streamlined, automated, or margin compressed by AI tools.

That does not mean every move is rational or sustainable. But when a theme spreads across multiple sectors, it deserves attention.

If this continues, we may see:

• Defensive flows persist

• Higher multiple service businesses struggle

• Capital rotate further into hard assets and infrastructure

In other words, the split tape dynamic makes more sense in the context of disruption risk.

This is a theme worth monitoring closely in the weeks ahead.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

If you missed the news catalyst on , check out my trade recap here:

It will likely continue to be volatile this week and offer intraday trading opportunities. The theme is active, and as long as volume persists, it remains in play.

Memory

Memory stocks are holding up well relative to the broader tape. Structure remains constructive, but breakout momentum could still be choppy in this environment.

If QQQ reclaims strength, these likely expand. If tech rolls over again, breakouts may struggle to follow through.

Datacenters

displayed relative strength after reporting earnings. Although they continue to operate at a loss with significant capex, the market reacted positively. That reaction matters more than the headline numbers in the short term.

The broader datacenter group continues to resist selling and is holding support for the most part.

This group remains one of the more structurally intact AI infrastructure themes, but can just remain rangebound while the broader market pulls back.

Fiber optics

The optics group remains in continued uptrends, but no clean entry setups are prevalent in this grind higher.

continues to trend constructively.

looks to have undercut recent support and is attempting to rally back. If that reclaim holds, it could offer a tactical long setup.

Share

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

Coming into the session, the tape had already been shifting.

Over the prior week we saw:

• Software sell off aggressively

• Financials break down, including

• Freight and logistics roll over, notably

There was a clear narrative developing around AI disruption across traditional industries.

Capital was rotating.
Legacy operators were under pressure.
Markets were repricing structural risk.

This backdrop mattered. The environment was already primed for structural winners and losers.

Subscribe now

The Announcement - Quantifying the Disruption

The company’s announcement gave the narrative substance.

Algorhythm stated that its SemiCab platform, an AI-driven optimization system for shippers and carriers, allows customers to scale freight volumes by 300 to 400 percent without adding staff.

According to the company, operators using SemiCab can manage more than 2,000 loads per year versus roughly 500 loads per broker under traditional models.

The platform automates network-level planning and decision-making, lowering cost per load, reducing administrative overhead, and increasing asset utilization as volume scales.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the announcement triggered an immediate reaction across freight:

• dropped 15%

• fell 16%, its worst day ever

• declined 5%

The disruption theme was no longer abstract. It was being priced in.

Interestingly, the stock moved the day prior but failed to sustain momentum. The reaction was there, but participation was not. It was not until the following session that price broke the prior high with real volume behind it.

The Catalyst - CEO on Fox

The spark came when the CEO appeared live on Fox TV.

Up until that point, $RIME had spent most of the session compressing between roughly 1.20 and 1.30 with limited activity.

Once the interview hit, participation changed immediately:

• Heavy influx of volume

• Immediate expansion in range

• Sharp reclaim and hold of VWAP

• Clear shift in tempo

Theme plus visibility attracts participation. Participation drives range expansion.

The Technical Inflection

There were two key technical shifts.

The first was the intraday range expansion that followed the surge in volume. That was the initial signal that participation had changed and that the session was no longer rangebound.

However, the larger inflection came at prior day high.

When price cleared that level on sustained volume, the structure shifted decisively from expansion to confirmed trend.

The intraday break signaled opportunity.
The prior day high break confirmed acceptance.

This was not a marginal push through resistance. It was continuation with participation behind it.

That sequence - expansion first, higher timeframe level second - is what gave the move conviction.

How I Traded It

I started buying as price broke over prior day high when the alert triggered.

Rather than full size immediately, I accumulated as volume remained consistent and the breakout confirmed. The key tells:

• Price holding above prior day high

• Higher lows building

• Respect of short-term trend structure

• No sharp rejection back into the range

The 5 minute 10 EMA acted as dynamic support during the move. As long as price respected that structure, I stayed with the position.

Into strength, I sold into spikes. The goal was not to predict the top but to monetize volatility while allowing a core position to participate in continuation.

Once the stock cleared 2.50 and later 3.00, momentum had clearly taken over. At that point it becomes a management exercise rather than an anticipation exercise.

The Afterhours Secondary Trade

After the initial expansion, the stock pulled back and formed a range in afterhours.

Once it broke the upside of that range with confirmation, I took a secondary trade.

Same principles:

• Break of defined range

• Volume confirmation

• Clear invalidation level

Continuation followed as liquidity expanded again.

Connecting the Dots in Real Time

The edge is not just in the chart. It is in connecting the dots and assessing what is truly in play and what the market cares about.

That requires consistently tracking narratives, catalysts, and shifts in participation as they develop.

Inside the discord community, we focus on identifying what is in play each day and positioning when theme, attention, and structure align.

Why This Worked

1. Active AI disruption theme already pressuring multiple sectors

2. Clear media catalyst increasing attention

3. Heavy volume confirming participation

4. Break of prior day high triggering technical flows

5. Structured execution with defined risk

The prior weakness in software, financials, and freight was not noise. It confirmed that positioning was already shifting around AI narratives.

aligned with that narrative and provided a clean vehicle for momentum expression.

P.S. Trying a more structured trade recap format here.

If this style is useful, let me know in the comments and consider liking the post so I know to keep building on it.

It was an overall volatile and action packed week, marked by sharp moves across multiple asset classes. Silver saw another surge in volatility, bouncing for several sessions early in the week before breaking down again and making new lows on Thursday.

Software stocks extended their selloff before finally finding some stability into Thursday and Friday, while Bitcoin continued its broader decline before capitulating near the $60,000 level and reversing sharply on Thursday. The simultaneous weakness in software and crypto gave the sense of broader market deleveraging, with spillover selling pressuring other sectors as well.

I noted both software and crypto were approaching extremely oversold conditions, setting up the potential for a sharp bounce, which ultimately played out and led to an opportunistic trade setup (trade recap).

To close out the week, rallied roughly 2% on Friday, with futures across all major indices printing engulfing reversal bars, and the Dow Jones closed at a new all time high. The Russell 2000 small cap ETF managed to close the week positive, continuing to show relative strength.

After a week filled with outlier moves, it appears leverage has likely been reset across many assets. The recent market has been dominated by value, industrial and energy stocks lately, but with Friday’s strong breadth, the conditions are in place for a potential new rally to begin forming in tech and growth.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Earnings season continues, with several key names on watch this week.

and are in focus following recent capitulation moves, with earnings reactions likely to reveal whether peak pessimism has already been priced in.

a semiconductor company with strong fundamental growth, reports on Tuesday and has been building a base.

an AI infrastructure name, is setting up for a potential 200-MA breakout but reports on Wednesday, making earnings a key catalyst.

and also remain on watch.

A couple of sectors are standing out with relative strength.

In fiber optics tied to GPUs and datacenters, and are showing constructive action.

Within datacenters, made a strong move off the lows. saw a strong rebound on Friday and held the 200-SMA. also rebounded sharply on Friday, printing a higher low on the daily base. staged a strong rebound after capitulating in after-hours on earnings, while remains in a sideways consolidation range spanning the last few months.

still looks constructive holding the sideways range it’s been in since last summer, with earnings later in the month likely to be a catalyst to break either side of the range.

travel stocks have been breaking out, with making new highs last week.

steel stocks remain in uptrends but report earnings on Monday, making results a key catalyst.

oil stocks are in an uptrend with breakout potential.

solar stocks continue to trend higher and are digesting a recent earnings gap.

Overall, more stocks are setting up for bullish continuation patterns. While and remain firmly in uptrends, it would be constructive to see reclaim all of its key moving averages to signal full alignment and a more risk-on environment for growth and technology stocks.

Share

Trade Highlights

BTC reversal:

reversal in Coinbase with crypto basket:

reversal with crypto basket:

gold miner short after parabolic backside:

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

The week began with precious metals continuing their parabolic advance, while the dollar broke down on Tuesday before recovering as the week progressed.

The major inflection point came with sharp pullbacks across metals, where silver, despite a large drop early Monday, initially found support from continued strength in gold. I noted on X that both metals were getting extended enough to watch for a possible parabolic short setup:

Gold then accelerated higher before both metals reversed aggressively on Thursday, culminating in a historic and record breaking collapse in silver of roughly -30% in a single session, a move that was exacerbated by leveraged ETF rebalancing flows in .

Equities also came under pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve, who is widely viewed as more hawkish, and it remains to be seen whether part of the broader selloff was driven by spillover deleveraging tied to the violent metals unwind as markets head into next week.

Earnings were mixed across technology, with reporting strong results and being rewarded, beating expectations but selling off alongside a weak software sector, trading largely flat, and posting blowout earnings but facing profit taking after its recent run.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Earnings season continues, with several notable companies in the AI space reporting this week:

Metals remain a top watch. After a historic drop from extreme upside extension, they are arguably now extended to the downside in the short term. One potential trade this week is a bounce in silver and gold , which already began on Friday as the deleveraging-driven selling pressure appeared to exhaust.

Meanwhile in equities the major indices and remain mostly rangebound. continues to pull back on the small-cap side, while has broken down from its range and is now hovering right around the 200-SMA, a popular gauge for growth stocks and speculative appetite.

Crypto saw renewed breakdowns as $BTC and $ETH fell below their recent daily ranges after months of persistent relative weakness.

Several crypto-related stocks also made new lows, including and .

Another sector that broke down was quantum stocks, with the major names in the group losing the 200-SMA. triggered a clean technical breakdown (trade recap below), while and also broke key long-term levels.

Overall, there is a lack of bullish setups heading into the week following last week’s weak market action. Many sectors have rolled over, with charts firmly in downtrends.

That said, conditions can change quickly, especially with earnings acting as potential catalysts to renew enthusiasm in select names. With capital flowing out of the metals trade, it will be important to watch where that money rotates next, if anywhere at all.

Share

Trade Highlights

Gold parabolic short:

Silver overnight short:

breakdown:

breaking news trade afterhours:

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

U.S. equity markets saw a sharp selloff to start the week after Trump threatened new tariffs on several European nations as part of his broader Greenland strategy, reigniting fears of an escalating trade conflict and weighing heavily on the indices, with gapping down and closing weak on Tuesday.

Sentiment shifted later in the week as markets rebounded strongly after Trump backed away from the proposed tariffs and signaled progress toward a framework agreement, sparking a classic relief rally across both U.S. and European equities.

Even with the rebound, and remain rangebound, and overall conditions continue to be choppy, with only a narrow group of stocks sustaining clean trends.

During the early week volatility, gold and other safe haven assets surged, and despite the easing of tariff threats, precious metals continued higher into the end of the week. Silver and gold once again took center stage, with silver breaking above the $100 level for the first time on record and gold pushing close to the $5000 area.

Over the weekend, trade tensions resurfaced as Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada proceeds with a trade deal with China, adding another layer of uncertainty heading into the new week.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Earnings season is starting with many heavyweights reporting this week. Some key stocks to watch will be:

Silver and gold will be closely watched if price accelerates into a potential parabolic short. However, if price consolidates instead, the trend could extend further to the upside.

Mining stocks also saw strength this week, with extending its rally, while smaller microcap names such as and showed notable movement.

In crypto, $BTC failed a range breakout earlier in the month and is now breaking down, trading back below the 50-SMA. $ETH looks similar, with both appearing vulnerable to a retest of recent lows. Stocks tied to crypto price action to watch include , , and .

Rare earth stocks are also on watch following reports of the Trump administration investing $1.6B into . Other names in the sector to monitor include and .

Keeping in mind the selectivity and choppiness of the current environment, datacenter stocks did show some strength on Friday, though they remain rangebound overall and could have breakout potential depending on how the week develops: .

If the market sees further weakness, the quantum sector looks technically weak and could set up potential breakdown trades alongside broader market pressure: .

is a microcap stock that surged from $11 to $68 in after-hours trading on Friday, making it a highly volatile stock to monitor this week.

is an extended biotech name that is running into resistance around the $8 level and could see downside if momentum fades after its recent run.

Share

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

continued to outperform during the week, reinforcing its leadership role, while remained stuck in a volatility contraction pattern, continuing to make higher lows but without a decisive breakout.

Software stocks were broadly sold, reflecting ongoing multiple compression and rotation away from the group, which I covered in more detail in my article on X.

In commodities, silver pushed to new highs before pulling back later in the week as geopolitical tensions with Iran eased after Trump stated there would be no strike.

On the macro front, the Supreme Court tariff ruling that had been scheduled for Wednesday was delayed once again, while CPI data came in cooler than expected, helping to support risk assets.

Over the weekend, however, new tariff headlines emerged, with President Trump announcing a 10 percent tariff on several European countries beginning February 1st, set to rise to 25 percent by June 1st unless the US reaches a deal related to Greenland, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets heading into the coming week.

Despite Monday being a market holiday, futures remained open and NQ gapped down -1%. From a technical perspective, price traded directly into the prior low near 25,265 and managed to bounce off those levels throughout the session. That area represents the last higher low in the trend and now acts as an important pivot, as a clean break below it could open the door to a deeper pullback, especially with price currently trading beneath the 50 day simple moving average. Outside of equities, both gold and silver continued to push higher, extending their recent strength despite the weakness seen in index futures.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Sector and theme leaders continue to rally to the upside across multiple groups despite overall index weakness in large cap tech.

The space sector remains a strong leadership theme.

broke out after being named a prime contract service provider by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).

continues to trade exceptionally heavy volume as it breaks out above the 200 moving average.

, and continue to print new highs.

In semiconductors, the memory space remains dominant, with and continuing to make new highs and leading sector momentum.

Within power infrastructure, and are breaking out to new highs as demand for grid stability and energy storage accelerates.

AI infrastructure and datacenters are also showing leadership.

saw roughly 3x average volume after announcing it secured 700 MW of capacity and signed a 10-year lease at Rockdale, marking a major pivot toward data center infrastructure.

broke out following news that Galaxy Digital completed a large load interconnection study and received ERCOT approval for an additional 830 MW of computing demand at its Helios data center campus in West Texas.

On the technical side, continues to hold its 10 EMA within a strong uptrend, while made a sharp rally off its recent consolidation. and continue to trend higher and remain constructive.

Some software stocks could continue to see downside after breaking fresh technical levels, with and remaining vulnerable.

Other software names have been selling off for an extended period and could be setting up for a reflexive bounce if downside extends further, including and .

Precious metals continue to be on watch as silver continues its parabolic ascent. On the rare earths minerals side some stocks like are approaching breakout levels:

saw huge volume and has exploded 200% off lows from $2 to $6 in Fridays afterhours session, after gaining attention on the X platform as well as having a large short interest of 35% float short. The stock is on watch for a mean reversion short trade when the momentum turns.

Share

Markets don’t wait for weekly posts. For those looking to follow the market more actively each day, a daily livestream runs every morning at the market open, offering real-time commentary, screen sharing, trade ideas, and watchlists within the Discord community. Check out the link below:

Join Discord

All major U.S. indices , , finished the week at all-time highs, with the exception of which continues to lag on a relative basis, but remains in a well-defined uptrend and appears coiled for a potential upside breakout once it clears the $629 level.

Since the start of the year small caps have been outperforming, with the ratio chart suggesting a potential turning point and a period of continued outperformance.

In crypto, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound. Upside range levels are clearly defined and worth monitoring should a breakout attempt emerge.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Several different sectors are being catalyzed by recent actions and proposals from Trump, creating fresh narratives across the market.

Defense

Trump has floated a proposed $1.5T defense budget for FY 2027, a substantial increase from the $901B 2026 defense bill, reigniting interest across the defense complex. Many stocks in this sector saw strong rallies this week, but are short term extended:

Space

Adjacent to aerospace & defense is the space sector, which continues to benefit from expectations of a potential SpaceX IPO later in the year at a valuation north of $1T.

• broke out early in the week and consolidated for a few days

• is approaching all time highs but, albeit with wide and loose price action

• is a recent IPO that is coming off lows into an uptrend

• has notably seen a huge volume surge in the last few weeks

Housing

Trump announced plans for U.S. housing agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B in mortgage bonds, with the stated goal of lowering mortgage rates and improving affordability. He also proposed banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, aiming to reserve supply for individual buyers. While critics note institutions represent only about 1% of the market, the proposal aligns with his broader housing affordability narrative.

• made new 52 week highs on Friday

• rallied to close above the 50-SMA for the first time since November

Credit Cards

Trump has called for a one-year cap on credit-card interest rates at 10%, proposed to begin January 20, 2026. While the measure would require Congressional approval, it has drawn bipartisan attention despite past legislative attempts stalling. Companies exposed to this narrative include and as affected incumbents, whilst buy now pay later (BNPL) companies could potentially benefit:

• regained its uptrend since December

• is a recent IPO that has a sideways range for the last 2 months

AI Infrastructure

Meta signed 20-year power purchase agreements with Vistra , committing to buy electricity from three nuclear plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The deal covers more than 2,600 MW of zero-carbon nuclear power, reigniting the nuclear energy sector.

• had been in a 4 month downtrend and gapped up, but still closed under the 200-SMA

• retraced over 60% from the highs in October but has been rallying since the new year

• is an under-the-radar de-SPAC nuclear stock that also had positive news this week

Energy storage

Adjacent to that theme, renewable energy and energy storage stocks are also seeing increased momentum, with names such as moving alongside the broader energy and infrastructure narrative.

Datacenters

Datacenter stocks themselves remain in consolidation ranges on the daily technicals:

• has been sideways and saw a rally on Friday into the $200 area

• has been consolidating in a tight range

• rallied after earnings

• is at 52 week highs

• and all continuing to base

Memory

Memory stocks remain a leading group and one of the strongest momentum areas in the market with and breaking out strongly last week.

Share

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

The market began the shortened holiday week on the back foot, with weakness building into an extremely poor breadth day on New Year’s Eve, the final trading session of the year.

The first day of the new year then brought heightened volatility and disperion in the market, highlighted by sharp selloffs in megacap stocks and software , while the rallied to an all time high.

also experienced an intraday drop -2% from highs to lows, but overall remains in a tightening wedge formation on the daily chart, which could resolve in a directional move in the coming weeks.

Despite the turbulence, the VIX finished lower on the day, and small caps notably diverged from the weakness, with outperforming and closing up 1%. Under the surface, market breadth was actually constructive, as many speculative small and mid cap stocks rallied strongly, likely reflecting the unwind of late December tax loss selling and subsequent repurchasing to start the new year.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Looking ahead, the major headline over the weekend was the US military operation in Venezuela and the capture of President Maduro, which puts crude oil futures and oil related equities firmly on watch amid discussion of US companies potentially entering and expanding production in the country.

Rising geopolitical tensions also keep precious metals in focus. Gold , Silver , and Platinum all experienced parabolic blowoff style reversals at the end of last year. Gold is currently trading below its short term 10 and 20 day EMAs after failing to make a new high in December, while Silver has so far held the key 70 support area following its reversal, with a decisive break of that level opening the door for a potential short setup.

On the equity side, several sectors showed pockets of strength on Friday, suggesting selective rotation beneath the surface despite broader uncertainty. Rather than a single dominant theme, buying was spread across multiple areas, reinforcing the idea that capital is beginning to move more tactically as traders position for the next directional move in the market.

Space

Several space stocks were higher on Friday, with emerging as one of the key leaders in the sector. The potential SpaceX IPO this year remains a major driving narrative and ongoing tailwind for the group.

a microcap space stock that continues to rally despite multiple offerings the week prior, contributing to the short squeeze. Another move higher next week and could be a potential short trade.

Other notable stocks:

Datacenters

looks to be forming the first higher low and potential break of downtrend since the pullback in November. has showed relative strength and is nearer to the highs for a potential breakout.

Memory

Memory stocks continue their ascent after a strong end to last year. While has already broken out, is near ATH and also has a breakout level.

Crypto

$BTC and $ETH are trying to rally after being in a tight consolidaton range for last couple of weeks. They are also trying to break the downtrend and perhaps flip the 50-SMA.

Misc.

Other stocks that were strong on Friday and continue to be on watch:

• robotics group

• renewable energy/storage stocks

• drones

• China sector

• AI stocks that showed relative strength

Share

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

It was a shortened holiday week, but the market still managed to close strongly, with the closing at an all time high, aligning well with seasonal tendencies that historically favour positive returns during this period. On the equity side, trading conditions were relatively low volatility and sideways, shaped by a mix of tax loss harvesting and early window dressing activity. Space related stocks pulled back after their strong prior rally, taking a breather as momentum cooled.

One of the most notable developments came from the precious metals space, where both platinum and silver futures posted sharp, almost parabolic moves. With that strength in mind, precious metals remain firmly on the watchlist in the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

With muted action in equities last week, silver takes centre stage as the most important asset to be tracking this week.

The main narratives driving price action include:

• potential Chinese silver export restrictions set to take effect on January 1st

• silver trading at higher prices on foreign exchanges such as Dubai and China

• strong industrial demand - particularly from the solar industry, as renewable energy demand accelerates alongside AI-driven infrastructure buildouts

In addition, the CME increased margin requirements, adding another key factor influencing silver price action in the near term.

Below is a link to a detailed article on X which discusses many points of interest, including past margin hikes during Silver rallies:

Volatility in silver has also started to increase dramatically:

Statistics on silver after 10% spikes:

Thoughts from a market wizard who has been trading commodities for decades:

While silver remains the most important asset to watch, platinum and palladium futures are also noteworthy after posting large rallies, though both saw a sharp pullback on Wednesday. If silver stages a reversal, it is highly likely the other metals will follow with similar pullbacks.

Share

Trade Highlights

Platinum offered a short opportunity after being extremely extended short term on Wednesday:

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

Following on from last week’s weak close, the market gapped up on Monday but sold off steadily throughout the session, starting the week on a negative note. The selling pressure intensified into Wednesday, with finishing down roughly 2% from open to close after overnight news that China had built a new working prototype of an EUV lithography machine. That headline weighed heavily on semiconductors, with and among the hardest hit. Datacenter stocks were also caught in the downdraft, as continued to slide amid negative headlines, including renewed rumors of datacenter delays despite company refutations, along with reports that Blue Owl Capital had backed out of funding Oracle’s planned $10B Michigan datacenter.

Thursday marked a sharp turnaround, as the market gapped higher following softer than expected CPI inflation data. Adding to the positive shift in sentiment, delivered standout earnings, widely viewed as one of the largest beats and surprises in US semiconductor history, second only to ’s breakout moment in 2023. The week finished on a strong note, with Friday seeing break its short term downtrend as price rallied back above the 50 day SMA as well as the shorter term 10 and 20 EMAs. That move was further supported by news of a reported $100B OpenAI funding round valuing the company at around $830B, which appeared to ease investor concerns and helped Oracle bounce as a significant portion of its backlog is tied to OpenAI.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

and had strong sessions on Friday following news from OpenAI’s funding round and could see further upside as they rally off recent lows. Other stocks in the data-center group that tend to move in tandem remain on watch, including .

broke out from a consolidation range on Friday and has shown clear relative strength versus the broader market over the past couple of weeks.

remains strong, consolidating near all-time highs.

is breaking out from a lengthy stage 1 base, making new 52-week highs and trading at levels not seen since early 2024. The move is supported by several fundamentals, including posting its first-ever consolidated gross profit in Q3 2025, a shift toward higher-margin autonomy and AI initiatives, an improved funding position and capital discipline highlighted by the Volkswagen partnership, and anticipated strong demand for the more affordable R2 platform.

closed at an all time high, as it continues to gain attention after winning its largest-ever contract, an SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 prime award worth roughly $816M to design and build 18 missile-warning and tracking satellites. This follows a prior $515M SDA Transport Layer Tranche 2 contract, bringing total SDA contract value to more than $1.3B. The win places Rocket Lab alongside major defense primes such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, reinforcing its position as a credible new entrant among incumbents.

The broader space theme continues to see strong volume and gains, with the major narrative into 2026 centered around a potential SpaceX IPO. Other names to watch within the space theme include and .

shares are trading higher after Trump Media & Technology Group signed a merger agreement with TAE Technologies. The stock has seen heavy volume over the past two sessions but remains in a longer-term downtrend.

Share

Trade Highlights

was technically extended and continued to fall after exhausting momentum last Friday:

sold off on Thursday, resulting in a sell the news event as President Trump considered an executive order to reclassify marijuana:

daily breakout:

breakout:

rally from lows:

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

continued to outperform this week, breaking out to fresh all time highs after the Fed delivered its final interest rate cut of the year on Wednesday, with Powell striking a more dovish tone than many market participants had expected.

In contrast, technology showed notable weakness, as the Nasdaq 100 reacted poorly to earnings from two major AI heavyweights. Oracle raised its fiscal 2026 capex forecast by another $15b at a time when the market has been punishing elevated spending, and later in the week rumors circulated that some of its OpenAI related data center projects could be delayed until 2028, though those reports were later refuted. Broadcom also sold off despite beating earnings expectations, reinforcing the market tone for AI stocks currently.

, often used as a barometer for growth oriented stocks, failed to reclaim its 50 day simple moving average, suggesting that additional consolidation may still be needed before a new uptrend can develop.

Outside of equities, Silver continued its strength by breaking out to new highs, before pulling back at the end of the week.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

Space stocks were among the strongest sectors last week following rumors of a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026 targeting a $1.5T valuation, after the most recent share sale valued the company at roughly $850B.

shares rose as the company, which has the second-highest number of U.S. space vehicle launches, continued to gain momentum.

delivered strong earnings and broke out from its recent consolidation range.

, a closed-end fund with roughly 23% of its holdings tied to SpaceX exposure, saw a major rally over the past week but became short-term stretched to the upside.

As one of the main driving market narratives, the AI and semiconductor sectors remain key areas to watch. Both and are trading below their 50-SMA and printed bearish engulfing candles on Friday, leaving the group looking vulnerable.

the $186 price level is now a significant level to monitor, as it held twice last week following earnings and also marked the November low.

remains on watch post-earnings.

looks vulnerable after closing at the lower end of its recent range, with the $40 area acting as a key level.

Weed stocks surged as Trump is expected to sign executive order to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday:

has been trading in a tight range over the last couple of weeks and is starting to break support levels:

displayed notable relative strength on Friday closing near the highs when the market was selling off. The question remains if the stock can rally while the indices are weak.

Share

Trade Highlights

earnings breakout:

weed sector breakout:

extended short:

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

It was an overall quiet week, with some minor volatility on Sunday open as BTC fell lower overnight from rumors that Strategy could be selling some of their BTC holdings. The weakness followed into Monday, with reacting to news that it could sell bitcoin if their mNAV dropped below 1x. Both BTC and bounced over the next few days, but the momentum faded toward the end of the week.

Silver showed strength early on but traded mostly sideways afterward. Equity indices were relatively calm, with and posting only minor gains, while the clear standout was , which closed at an all time high on Thursday and continued to show strong relative leadership.

Subscribe now

Watchlist

One of the biggest events this week will be the widely anticipated rate cut decision from the Fed on Wednesday, with current probabilities sitting near 86%. With already at all time highs, a confirmed cut could help extend the breakout and potentially fuel a broader move in small caps heading into next year.

As Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, market attention has also started to shift toward potential successors. Polymarket currently shows Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate, making Fed leadership an increasingly important factor to watch for future policy direction and rate cut expectations.

Earnings season continues to wind down, but there are still a few notable reports ahead. and will be closely followed given their relevance to the AI narrative. , once a standout in the speculative space sector, is also reporting, along with , a uranium name that showed clear strength last week.

This week, Politico reported that the incoming Trump administration is considering an executive order on robotics next year, and the news quickly sparked a rally across robotics related names. stood out as the most notable mover, given its position as one of the only publicly traded companies developing a humanoid robot. In the small cap space, and posted strong rebounds after enduring major corrections since October. On the microcap side, and also surged on the headline, though both have already retraced a significant portion of their initial moves.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that SoftBank was in talks to buy DigitalBridge Group , sending the stock up about 45% by the close. Analysts quickly weighed in on potential valuation ranges, with Wells suggesting SoftBank would need to offer at least $18 to $20 per share, while JPMorgan outlined a possible acquisition price between $25 and $35.

There was also a wave of speculation late Friday that Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting an $800 billion dollar valuation alongside a potential 2026 IPO. The rumor sparked a sharp move across several related names. rallied on the news given its share stake in SpaceX acquired from a recent deal, while and saw sympathy gains as publicly traded space companies. , a closed end fund with exposure to private SpaceX shares, also benefited from the headline.

Datacenters remain a key theme within the broader AI boom, and the sector continues to be one of the more closely watched areas of the market. and stand out as the strongest names technically, both still maintaining clear uptrends. Among the larger incumbents, and have begun to turn off their lows following the October selloff.

Share

Trade Highlights

earnings beat breakout, along with robotics sector being hot theme after Trump admin news:

robotics stock breaking out of a downtrend on the executive order news:

was a beaten down nuclear stock that rallied with the broader speculative stock basket on Thursday:

For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:

It was a short but strong Thanksgiving week, with the major indices rallying right from Monday’s open. For the week the indices closed up:

• +3.70%

• +4.96%

• +5.61%

A standout development came from , the equal weighted S&P 500 index, which closed at a new all time high. This signaled a meaningful improvement in market breadth, with more individual stocks participating in the move rather than the narrow megacap driven strength seen earlier a few weeks ago. Broader participation also showed up in the rising high low ratio and the increase in the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 day moving average.

Another key storyline over the past two weeks has been the release of Google’s Gemini 3, which some argue outperforms the latest ChatGPT 5. What’s more, is that the model was trained on Google’s own cloud TPUs (tensor processing units), a demonstration that perhaps other chips can finally challenge Nvidia’s GPU dominance. As a result, we saw outperformance in the basket of stocks related to Google, compared to weakness in OpenAI and Nvidia over the recent weeks.

Subscribe now

As a reminder, there is still a Black Friday sale for 20% off on joining the community - deal ends Monday midnight:

Watchlist

This week many cloud software and cybersecurity companies report earnings, some notable ones include

Some key stocks to watch in the AI basket:

Datacenters remain an important sector to monitor as demand tied to AI infrastructure continues to grow. Recently, performance within the group has started to diverge, with names like and rebounding more quickly than others such as and . This is likely due to the positioning of these companies within the shifting hardware landscape - both CIFR and WULF have partnerships with Fluidstack and Google, and as Google’s TPUs gain favor as an alternative to traditional GPU based workloads, datacenters capable of hosting TPUs have shown stronger relative performance. In contrast, operators such as NBIS and IREN remain more closely tied to driven GPU demand, which may explain their slower recovery compared to the TPU aligned names.

Homebuilders were among the strongest groups to rally since last Friday, when Fed Williams’ comments boosted expectations for a possible December rate cut. Because the sector is highly sensitive to interest rate movements, the jump in rate cut probabilities helped fuel outsized strength in names like and , as well as the broader homebuilding ETFs and .

Crypto participated in the broader market bounce as well, although both BTC and ETH remain below their 200 day simple moving averages, which keeps them in higher timeframe downtrends. In the short term, a more sustained recovery would require prices to close back above the declining 20 day EMA.

Silver broke out to new highs this week, whilst gold appears to be setting up along a similar trajectory. Notable that gold miners have already made a local new high.

Overall, many individual stocks are starting to look more constructive in step with the broader market rally. Another group that stood out was renewable energy and energy storage, which showed clear relative strength as buyers rotated back into growth oriented themes.

Within software, and also recovered well, both displaying strong rebounds after several weeks of choppy action.

Share

Trade Highlights

despite the strong news flow, price was short term extended above the daily bollinger bands:

was an interesting trade this week as on the first two days of trading it spiked on the open and showed some price dislocation versus the other lower strike warrants: