Major indices pulled back over the week, with SPY, QQQ and IWM all finishing lower. Semiconductors led the weakness, while software held up relatively well and remained broadly flat on the week.

One of the bigger macro developments came from the Treasury market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to at least double the size of buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries, an attempt to improve liquidity and counter the recent rise in long-end yields. Bessent also suggested the Treasury could increase purchases further if necessary, describing the approach as a form of a “Treasury twist.” Despite the intervention, longer-term yields remained elevated, leaving the bond market an important area to watch.

Crypto saw some of the largest moves of the week, with BTC rallying around 20%, ETH around 30%, and HYPE approaching a 40% move from the week’s lows.

HYPE also received its own catalyst after President Trump said the CFTC was working on a compliant path to bring Hyperliquid into the US.

Gold continued its uptrend, extending higher with another leg up as momentum in precious metals remained intact.

The standout individual stock move came on Wednesday from $MRNA. Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, in combination with Keytruda for high-risk melanoma. The trial met its primary recurrence-free survival endpoint as well as a key secondary endpoint, marking the first positive Phase 3 result for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer treatment. $MRNA closed up roughly 177% on Wednesday and traded even higher intraday and after hours.

The Moderna move quickly spilled over into the wider oncology and biotech space, sparking sympathy moves across names such as TEM and PSNL, while biotech ETFs including XBI and ARKG also saw increased attention. It was another good example of how a major company-specific catalyst can develop into a broader sector theme.

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Events Looking Ahead

Jackson Hole will be the main macro event to watch, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking on Friday. With rates and the Treasury market already in focus, his comments could be an important catalyst for the broader market.

NVDA reports earnings Wednesday after the close. AI and semiconductor stocks took a backseat last week, so a strong report and outlook could potentially reignite momentum across the group. For now, much of the AI and semi basket has pulled back into mid-range areas on the daily chart, leaving the setups relatively uninteresting heading into the week.

Crypto

Crypto remains one of my main areas of focus after last week’s strong breakout.

BTC, ETH, HYPE, IBIT, ETHA - Following the recent expansion higher, weekend price action looks more like a short pause and consolidation heading into the start of the week.

MSTR, BMNR, PURR, USDE - Crypto treasury stocks remain on watch as higher-beta ways to participate in continued strength across the underlying assets.

HOOD, COIN, CRCL - The main crypto equities on watch. HOOD stands out after breaking out to fresh highs on Friday and could continue to see momentum if the crypto rally persists.

Metals & Materials

Metals continue to show strength, with gold and gold miners particularly strong recently.

A couple of rare earth and materials names have also come back onto the radar:

MP, TMQ - Both are worth watching for renewed momentum as interest returns to the group.

Biotech

Biotech remains a major focus after the groupwide strength sparked by MRNA last week.

MRNA - Consolidating after its huge catalyst-driven move. The initial expansion has passed, but the stock remains important as a potential leader and sentiment driver for the group.

TEM, PSNL - Two of the more notable sympathy movers. TEM in particular looks like it could be due for a short term pullback day.

BFLY, GH, LLY - A few other constructive charts within the broader healthcare and biotech space that are worth keeping on watch.

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Closing Thoughts

This week highlighted the importance of following where the news and momentum are, rather than becoming too attached to the sectors that have worked previously.

Many of the market’s biggest winners over the past few months, including semiconductors, memory and AI stocks, pulled back throughout the week. At the same time, there were huge moves and plenty of opportunity across crypto and biotech, two areas that had fresh catalysts and rapidly expanding momentum.

With the major indices now retracing back into their broader consolidation ranges, the market will likely remain selective. Rather than relying on a broad market uptrend, the focus remains on identifying specific sectors and individual stocks attracting abnormal volume, fresh catalysts and momentum.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Indices were quiet this week, with $SPY and $QQQ consolidating inside a range for most of the week, with a breakout attempt on Thursday after the PPI print, though retracing much of it back down on Friday.

Software got a lift on Thursday after Reuters broke that Silver Lake has been in talks for months to take Workday private, and $WDAY closed up nearly 18% at $206.45 on a deal that would be one of the largest software buyouts ever. The stock halted three times on the way up, running as much as 25% intraday. Private equity paying up for a beaten down enterprise name is a vote against the AI disruption story that has been hanging over the group all year, and the read through carried the wider software complex with it.

Semis still trade poorly, after trying to break higher from the multiday consolidating range but overall not moving for the past 3 days. AMAT dropped on earnings as well as AVGO getting hit on Friday.

SanDisk’s Investor Day provided another catalyst for the memory trade on Thursday, with management laying out an upbeat long-term financial model and stronger revenue growth projections. The outlook reinforced expectations for a sustained memory upcycle and improving industry fundamentals, helping lift sentiment across the broader memory complex and driving strength across the group.

Energy quietly led the whole thing. $XLE and $XOP were bid from Monday’s open and never gave it back. The sector was up over 6% week to date on Friday’s close.

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Quiet earnings week, with most of the focus toward individual catalysts, relative strength, and names that are beginning to separate themselves from their respective groups.

$NBIS was one of the standout winners from earnings last week, closing up 34% after reporting and finishing the week close to all-time highs. The ideal entry came on earnings day itself, so at current levels the focus is on whether it can consolidate the move and offer another setup rather than chasing the initial expansion.

$CRWV also saw a large post-earnings rally, but the optimism was short-lived. The stock has been sold every day since, leaving behind increasingly messy price action. For now, it needs time to reset and rebuild structure before becoming more interesting again.

$AMD was a notable relative-strength name on Friday following reports that Google could work with AMD on a future generation of its TPU accelerators, while expectations for Broadcom’s TPU volumes were reportedly being revised lower. The chatter circulated heavily during Friday’s session and coincided with strength in AMD while $AVGO sold off.

More broadly, AMD has held up relatively well through the recent semiconductor pullback. Despite remaining within a wide and loose consolidation range, it avoided the deeper retracements seen across several other semiconductor names. That relative strength, combined with the potential Google catalyst, puts it high on the watchlist if the group can regain momentum.

$AAOI finished Friday strongly and remains one of the more interesting names within the optical computing group. The strong close keeps it on watch for continuation, particularly if momentum returns to the broader AI infrastructure and optical names.

$SPCX continues to trend higher following its lockup expiration. The stock has so far absorbed the additional supply without breaking its broader uptrend, keeping the existing trend intact and making it one to continue monitoring for pullbacks and continuation setups.

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Closing Thoughts

The market remains fairly quiet as we move through the peak summer period. Volatility and daily ranges have continued to narrow, leaving many stocks chopping around without much sustained direction.

In this type of environment, the focus should remain on individual catalysts and names showing abnormal volume or reacting to meaningful news. These are more likely to provide clean opportunities while the broader market remains relatively muted.

Nothing particularly stands out heading into the week, but conditions can shift quickly. Stay selective, remain patient when there is no clear edge, and be ready to get aggressive when the right opportunities appear.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week we said the test was whether the indices could hold a higher low and then take out the prior week’s highs. Both confirmed, with $SPY printing a new all time high and $QQQ recovering much of the July drawdown.

Whatever the macro opinion, an index at all time highs is not a bearish chart. Every major index is now in an uptrend and sitting above key moving averages. The base case from here should be that a new uptrend has begun until the tape says otherwise.

The internals are where it gets interesting. $MAGS led early in the week, then software took over from midweek. $PLTR was the engine there, ripping 29.5% Tuesday on a blowout quarter and a big guidance raise, dragging the whole enterprise software group with it.

Semis lagged on a relative basis. The group rallied, but off a base so damaged by July that a strong week barely dents the repair job, and $SOX remains a long way from its highs while $SPY prints new ones. Memory stayed under pressure throughout. $SNDK and $WDC both sold off despite beating, and $MU faded again into Friday. The relative weakness here is now notable during last weeks market rally.

Korea has a similar picture, despite the record reversal that closed out July, $KOSPI is technically in a bear market after drawing down -45% from all time highs.

Most telling of all, the AI infrastructure names Aschenbrenner’s book was force fed into last week began to fade after the initial snapback. Sharp mechanical bounce, then supply. The overall sector also remains relative weak compared to other groups for now.

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The hyperscaler slate is behind us, but the calendar is still busy with the popular growth and AI names. $RKLB, $ASTS and $HIMS report Monday after the close, $SMCI and $CRWV Tuesday, $NBIS Wednesday morning with $CBRS after the bell. Plenty of room for single stock volatility even with the index in a clean uptrend.

Worth flagging away from equities: gold and silver both broke out of a compressed six week range to the upside, with gold posting its best week since January. Both are still countertrend rallies underneath the longer term moving averages, so treat them as such until the structure says otherwise.

$PLTR Strength off the earnings gap. Already rallied alot after earnings so not really a fresh buy here.

$CBRS IPO base building, but reports Wednesday after the close. Earnings could resolve the base into a breakout.

$SPCX Stopped going down on the first unlock date, which is the tell. Momentum has turned upwards for now.

$MU Pivot break around $930, but a weak group and heavy overhead supply. Best chart in an overall weak sector.

$HPE Relative strength name, broke out over $50 and retested this week.

$AVGO Breakout over $400 and trending. Nothing to do but hold it while it works.

$HTZ Post earnings rally with real short interest behind it, 28% of float, and retail speculation potentially.

$AXTI Moving on the China datacenter component ban story along with other optical computing stocks.

$MRVL Four day range, potential break to the upside.

$NBIS Reports Wednesday morning. Burry is short. A higher low plus a pivot break over $230 puts it back in an uptrend.

$SOUN Delayed earnings reaction. The speculative bid is back in parts of this market and this is one of the places it shows up.

$IONQ Countertrend rally across quantum, with the whole group still under its major moving averages.

$DELL Relative strength, but a failed breakout earlier in the week left a loose consolidation.

$IREN Turning around, still under the longer term averages.

$AEHR, $UMAC, some other technical charts of interest.

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Closing Thoughts

$SPY at all time highs is by definition bullish, and the strongest signal this market has given in months. $QQQ has not confirmed with a new high of its own, with semis being the reason for the drag. That weakness is worth respecting, and a sign to focus on the rotation into other groups leading the market instead of trying to force an uprend in weak sectors, such as memory and AI infrastructure for now.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week closed on a bearish note with $QQQ sitting right on the edge of its consolidation range and the leading memory names looking ready to roll back into the downtrend, and both resolved the way the tape was pointing.

The selloff culminated on Wednesday after the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all dissenting in favour of a hike. The initial reaction was higher, but reversed sharply into the close.

Afterwards we found out that part of it was forced liquidation, as Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund had been running leverage as high as 4x across AI infrastructure, power, data centres and bitcoin miners, off a peak near $45 billion at the start of July. Thursday morning news broke that the Citadel had bought the entire portfolio. The overhang cleared and the all major indices reversed sharply to the upside, led by the memory and AI stocks that Leopold had capitulated from. It was also helped by Samsung reporting record chip profit and warning that shortages get more acute into 2028, while $MSFT did the heavy lifting up top, adding roughly $450 billion in market value in the largest single-day market cap gain in history after Azure accelerated to 43%.

Friday was digestion, with the indices closing up modestly, while $AMZN carried the tape and $AAPL went the other way after earnings. Into the close Trump was threatening further escalation against Iran, saying the US would be hitting them very hard, and crude held its bid on it. That came off over the weekend, when he said the US had agreed to pause attacks, citing the perimeters of a deal that would include a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and adding that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off.

Going into next week the technical picture has potential to change, with $SPY‘s bullish reversal putting price back inside the range, and the failure to break down through short term support.

$QQQ came close to testing the 200sma, almost tagged it on the futures, then retraced all the way back above the breakdown level, which gives us a potential higher low. This week decides whether we get the follow through day and the risk on environment back, or whether Thursday was simply the mechanical bounce that comes once a forced seller has finished selling.

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Earnings season continues with more tech and AI names reporting this week:

Korea. After a short term capitulation with the KOSPI topping in June and drawing down around -45% from the highs on last Wednesday, reversing sharply closing up 17.91% for the largest single-day gain in the index’s history. That is likely a short term capitulation which could lead to a further bounce. $EWY and $KORU are the vehicles, with Fridays close as a potential higher low in the start of this countertrend bounce.

Memory. $SNDK, $MU and $DRAM stay the core basket and will trade in the same direction as Korea and $QQQ rather than independently of them. $SNDK reports FQ4 after the close Wednesday with NAND pricing and supply guidance the numbers that matter, which lands directly on top of Samsung’s call that shortages get more acute and run into 2028.

The capitulation names. $NBIS and $BE are both extremely volatile with real fundamentals underneath, and both were core to the book that just got liquidated. Bloom Energy was the fund’s largest disclosed position at roughly 23% of the 13F, and the Nebius stake was built after the March filing, with $2.6 billion disclosed in May. $NBIS had fallen more than 46% over the month into Thursday, then both ripped once Citadel absorbed the block, $NBIS +27.1% and $BE +25.6% by mid afternoon. The forced seller is gone. Whether the bid that replaced it stays is the question.

Relative strength. These held up through the correction and are consolidating on the daily, which is the behaviour that leads if this resolves higher.

$DELL Still holding the base it built while the rest of AI hardware broke down

$HPE Same profile, quietly constructive through the worst of the tape

$AVGO Held structure better than the chips around it

$HUT Ripped 22.5% Thursday despite the fund having already exited the position, which makes the move cohort-wide rather than mechanical

$ANET Reports Q2 after the close Tuesday

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Closing Thoughts

Last week we said the turn would announce itself with an obvious change of character. Thursday and Friday may have been it. The forced liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund could be overall represent a wider leverage reset, with many AI tech stocks having drawn down 50% since the highs. Add Korea rebounding out of a 41% drawdown from the highs and a 18% upday in a single session and the signs of a potential turn is there.

What matters now is whether the indices hold the higher low and take out last week’s highs, to determine if this was just a violent bounce or the potential opening leg of a new uptrend. In addition, watching how stocks respond to news and earnings this week will tell us if there is an overall positive shift in market tone after the market has been correcting sideways for the last couple of months.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week we framed Friday’s bounce as a short term washout, and it held into the early part of this week. Then Thursday and Friday arrived and the market started to roll again. $QQQ continued to break down this week, with price closing below the major support level for the last two months, below the initial washout low created in June.

$SPY and $IWM both lost the 50sma this week, but still remain the higher low washout level from June. Tech is the weakest link and it is the one printing new lows.

VIX the volatility index stayed elevated in the 17 to 20 range all week rather than spiking and fading. A sustained VIX will be a sign to watch for whether more pain is to come.

Memory staged its bounce and then rolled with everything else. $DRAM, $EWY, $MU and $SNDK all traced the same shape: a 5-day bounce off the lows, before giving it up into Friday.

Semis remain in a downtrend, with the group still selling on any positive news. $INTC reported Thursday night with revenue of $16.13 billion against roughly $14.4 billion expected and EPS of $0.42 against $0.21, its fastest growth in almost fifteen years. Shares jumped as much as 12% after hours and then closed Friday down 7.89%. $MXL was worse. It beat on both lines and guided Q3 to $210 to $220 million against consensus near $174 million, then fell 18.6% on Friday.

Wednesday brought the megacaps and both broke down on the daily. $GOOGL posted record operating income on 24% revenue growth, and none of it mattered next to the cash flow statement. Capex doubled to $44.9 billion against $39.1 billion of operating cash flow, producing free cash flow of negative $5.9 billion, the first negative quarter in the company’s history since the 2004 IPO. Management raised the full year capex guide to $195 to $205 billion and then declined to put any number on 2027. The stock closed under the 200ma.

$TSLA finally cracked after a year of going nowhere. Revenue and deliveries were both records, but operating income fell 57%, free cash flow turned negative by $1.1 billion, and Musk spent the call managing expectations on Optimus rather than selling it, calling the robot one of the hardest problems to solve and warning the early ramp would be flat and long. The Musk premium is fading more broadly, with $SPCX sliding right alongside it and giving back everything since the Pentagon deal we flagged last week.

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Next week will heavily be impacted by earnings. $MSFT, $META and $ARM report Wednesday after the close, with $AAPL and $AMZN following Thursday. Four of the heaviest weights in $QQQ land inside 48 hours, and after what happened to $GOOGL for spending, those reactions can move the market.

In addition, many other tech and AI adjacent companies also report, including $QCOM, $VRT, $RDDT, $BE and a others. This week will further set the tone for sentiment in the AI sector.

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday, the first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, further stacking event risk is into this 48 hour window, which is worth knowing before sizing anything.

Correlation inside $QQQ stays high, which means individual setups matter less than they normally would. If the downtrend continues, memory remains the vehicle. Highest beta to the market and the cleanest expression of the move. $SNDK, $DRAM, $MU as the core basket.

There are green shoots in relative strength worth tracking. These names either held up best through the selling or bounced hardest off the recent lows. However, it remains a time to track relative strength rather than initiate new longs. For a sustained uptrend to be created, there needs to be a clear change in character in the wider market.

$DELL clear relative strength and holding the earnings gap from end of May.

$AMD relative strength in terms of relative drawdown from it’s all time highs, despite a choppy trading range.

$NVDA Basing sideways around $200

$ANET A choppy consolidation range but hasn’t really broken down.

$CIFR Datacenter stock that bounced sharply last week.

$HUT Another datacenter stock holding up well.

$USO and crude are on watch as weekend headlines pointed toward possible negotiations.

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Closing Thoughts

It will be an event driven week with the megacap tech stocks reporting earnings as well as FOMC. Along with elevated volatility and the indices breaking fresh lows, the path of least resistance stays to the short side.

It remains an environment to be nimble. Until something changes the short term trend has been down for the last few weeks. When the market turns, it will be an obvious change in character and a clear shift in market tone, with stocks actually going up on positive news, as well as a proliferation in individual breakouts. Until then, remain patient.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Money moved early in the week, just not into anything resembling conviction. The rotation went into the mega caps while memory carved out a lower high and rolled over again, showing clear backside behaviour and distribution.

Crude continues to climb, with the Iran situation not having improved much. However, the conflict isn’t really the main driving narrative for the market, as tech has been selling off for a few weeks now.

Market tone in tech remains negative, this week saw both $ASML and $TSM report earnings and neither print was rewarded. TSMC posted net profit up 77% year over year and lifted its capex guide, ASML beat and raised full year revenue guidance, and both ended lower. That pattern also repeated across the sector in other stocks, showing overall appetite in the AI trade is still low.

On Tuesday. $IBM pre-announced weak preliminary Q2 results and closed down 25.21% at $217.07, the worst single day in the company’s history. Revenue came in at $17.2 billion against $17.86 billion consensus. Krishna wrote an unusually blunt letter admitting the company faltered and pinned it on clients redirecting budget toward servers, memory and storage rather than software.

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The market deteriorated further this week. $QQQ has spent the summer inside one large range between the all time high and the June low, and this week the intermediate range finally gave way. 710 broke Thursday, 700 was breached overnight, and price went on to test the June low. We got a short term oversold bounce out of it, but the close landed in the middle of the day’s range, which remains uncertain.

Volatility is the bigger tell. $VIX hit 18. Memory names have been volatile for weeks, but this is index level volatility now, and that is a different regime. $SPY had largely ignored the tech weakness until Friday, when it finally took a hit and closed underneath the 50sma.

When volatility rises, correlation rises with it, and most names start trading as one instrument. There are not many clean individual charts this week as a result. The focus stays on memory, because it remains the most in play narrative and the best trading vehicle in the market.

Kospi futures did not trade Friday with the Korean market shut for Constitution Day. Worth noting Thursday’s session there was carnage, with $KOSPI down 6.37% on heavy semi selling and a surprise Bank of Korea rate hike. All of that reaction is still queued up for the Monday reopen.

$DRAM, $SOXL, $QQQ, $SNDK, $MU, $SKHY as the basket. The whole group was short term extended into Friday and gave a clean morning bounce, which was a good trade. Next week comes down to one question. Either we take out Friday’s high or we stay weak.

$SPCX continues to remain extremely weak, despite receiving a compute deal from the Pentagon on Friday, where the news was heavily sold into.

$LCID had bankruptcy rumors last week that were denied, and it has been squeezing whatever shorts are left ever since. Watching for a proper blowoff or a fizzle.

Cybersecurity has clearly held up, there isn’t really any sustained trend there. Relative strength in a choppy downward market still doesn’t go anywhere.

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Closing Thoughts

Volatility is up and the indices have no trend, which makes this a daytrading environment rather than a swing one.

Friday may have been a short term washout in memory. The Korea reopen is the tell, and if that session turns we can start cautiously positioning long for a bounce. If instead the selling gets steeper, a capitulation trade sets up, and that is the better outcome of the two. Either way the group tells us first.

Until then, stay nimble. Intraday ranges are wide, correlation is high, and it remains a hit and run tape.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Memory stocks rebounded this week with $SNDK recovering roughly 30% off Tuesday’s low after the group went down in tandem with Samsung, which sold off on earnings despite the beat.

Crude oil futures also saw a bounce this week as the official ceasefire ceased early in the week, as well as technically from a major 200 moving average.

The other major news this week was Thursday when Reuters obtained an internal $META memo laying out plans to double compute to 14 gigawatts in 2027, with its custom Iris chip going into production in September and multi-year memory supply deals locked in with Samsung and $SNDK. Two weeks ago the market read Meta subletting excess compute as an admission it had overbuilt, and that cracked the scarcity thesis underwriting the whole datacenter trade. This weeks news seemed to reverse the picture, with the overall AI complex seeing a modest recovery.

Meta stacked on top with Muse Spark 1.1, its new agentic model, and the reception was strong across the board. SemiAnalysis went as far as calling Meta on track to overtake Google’s frontier models within six months. $META closed up roughly 15% on the week, the best Mag 7 name by a wide margin.

On Friday SK Hynix priced its Nasdaq ADR at $149, raised $26.51 billion, and closed up around 13%, the largest US debut by a foreign company on record.

Underneath all of it, the still remains in the same consolidation range since early June, same levels on either side.

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Earnings season kicks off next week and the banks go first, with $JPM and the rest of the majors reporting Tuesday morning.

$SKHY as well as the broader memory group remains on watch but in a more neutral position, with $SNDK, $MU, and $WDC having now sold off and bounced, which leaves the whole complex sitting in a neutral spot with no edge on either side. It needs more time to pick a direction.

$NVDA is a change of character since Tuesday. Price had been consolidating right on the major 200sma, and the last few sessions have brought real buying pressure, large range moves higher and closes near the highs in three of the last four days.

$AMD was one of the few semis that held up cleanly through the selloff and it stayed strong through the bounce. The question is whether it can trend without getting chopped up, because the broader $SOXX action is still wide and erratic.

$META is on watch for how it digests the move. Up roughly 15% on the week off the Muse release and the compute memo, so the interest now is entirely in how it behaves after a run that size.

$WYFI is showing relative strength and worth a look. It sits in the AI infrastructure and datacenter lane, which puts it directly downstream of the compute story that just got re-validated.

$SPCX closed at new lows on Friday, below the $150 IPO open. The level underneath is $135, where the deal actually priced, and that is the obvious magnet if this keeps bleeding. Worth noting it made these lows after Nasdaq-100 inclusion, meaning it could not hold a mechanical passive bid.

$BTC and $ETH have stopped going down. Two weeks of basing, and $ETH in particular is pressing right up against a higher high break. If the low is in, this is where it shows up first.

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Closing Thoughts

There is no clear leadership right now. No group stands out, nothing is trending cleanly, which is not a coincidence, it is just another expression of the same sideways summer consolidation we have been stuck in since the start of June.

The good news is that the $QQQ is doing this in an orderly way. It has been coiling, not breaking. No real support has given way, and price is simply working off the move rather than unwinding it.

It remains a market to stay patient. The easy money period arrives after the $QQQ resolves out of range. Until then, keep running the scans as the tape can flip in the space of a few days.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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The rotation continued this week, culminating in a sharper selloff in the semiconductor group. The $DJI printed a fresh all-time high, closing at 52,865 to cap the shortened week, while $SPY barely flinched. The damage was mostly in tech and the AI complex, money leaving the crowded trade and hiding in the boring ones.

The $QQQ was the underperformer for the week as semis got taken to the woodshed, memory and equipment names leading the bleed. Both and dropped double digits while the healthcare and biotech leadership that we flagged last week held its ground.

The catalyst was Meta floating plans to start a cloud business selling access to its excess AI compute. The market took a hyperscaler willing to sublet capacity as a sign that they may have overspent on capex. That single headline put a crack in the compute scarcity thesis that has underwritten this entire datacenter buildout, and anything adjacent to that trade got sold. Chips, memory, equipment, power, the whole chain.

Korea told the same story as the Kospi sliced below 8,000 and triggered a market halt, Samsung and SK Hynix both dumping hard as the read-through from Meta ripped straight into the memory complex that has carried that market all year.

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The $QQQ is currently consolidating sideways, as price has been coiling since the trend stalled in early June, printing lower highs and higher lows into a tightening range. The two pivots that matter are the all-time high up top and the June washout low underneath. Until one of them breaks, this is a sideways summer tape, and there can be individual sector and stock trades but overall won’t have the market tailwind behind for an easy money environment just yet.

Memory is a clear watch after last week’s crack for either follow-through lower or a bounce. Korea already cast an early vote, with the Kospi ripping 5.8% on Friday while US markets were on holiday, Samsung up 8% and SK Hynix up 11% off Thursday’s washout. That sets US memory up to gap. Watching $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, and $STX for the reaction, with $SOXX/$SOXL, $DRAM, and $EWY as the read on the broader complex.

$SKHY also lists this week. SK Hynix brings its Nasdaq ADR to market, bookbuilding into Thursday and trading expected to open Friday July 10, a roughly $29 billion deal that would be the largest ADR listing on record. It holds around 60% of the HBM market, so this is a pure-play memory proxy arriving into the US market.

Crypto flashed relative strength this week, decoupling from the tech tape and catching a bid into the weekend while memory and AI names bled. It’s early and the absolute move is modest with $BTC still hanging in the low 60s, but the character change is what’s on watch.

$STRC is clawing back toward par after $MSTR rolled out its new Digital Credit Capital Framework. Strategy lifted the STRC dividend to 12%, authorized a $1 billion preferred buyback aimed squarely at pushing the security back to its $100 stated value, set a USD reserve policy, and green-lit a $1.25 billion bitcoin monetization program to fund it all. The preferred stress we flagged last week is easing.

$RDDT is the green shoot in software, holding relative strength while the rest of the growth complex chops. One to watch for a rotation back into beaten-down software leadership.

$LLY remains the healthcare leader and a potential trend-join if the rotation into the sector has legs. This is where the money leaving semis has been hiding.

Cybersecurity stayed firmly bid straight through the semi selloff. $CIBR held its ground while chips bled and the group’s leaders never broke. However the clean low-risk entries have already passed, but worth noting the strength in names like .

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Closing Thoughts

Overall there aren’t too many obvious setups heading into the week, which is mostly a function of where the indices are, completely in the middle of their range.

Nevertheless the market can flip quickly, which is why it’s important to keep the watchlist lean, keep running the scans, and let the market tell you when it’s ready to move again.

When that moment arrives, it most likely comes on the back of a $QQQ resolution and whether this consolidation breaks higher or lower. How long we wait is anyone’s guess, could be days or weeks or months. Patience is the position until the range gives way, and when it finally does, the setups will be become glaringly obvious.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Indices (week): SPY continued to pull back this week and closed under the 50-SMA. The Nasdaq closed lower than the open every day last week, a subtle sign of distribution picking up across the tape. The Dow and Russell held up better as money rotated out of mega-cap tech. By Thursday, 63% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average, up from 50% at the start of June, a sign of healthier breadth even as the headline index struggled.

Hyperscalers are now expected to spend $725bn on AI capex in 2026. Investors are shifting focus from revenue growth to returns on invested capital. The result was the Mag 7’s worst week in months, with the market rewarding the chip suppliers and punishing the spenders.

Micron surged on Wednesady after a blowout Q3 beat, with demand for high-bandwidth memory and AI data centre products extremely strong. Guidance also topped forecasts. However, it sold off after the open and traded lower into Friday’s close, a potential sign that all the good news has been discounted in the stocks huge 300% rally since April lows.

OpenAI IPO delay: The New York Times reported OpenAI is leaning toward pushing its IPO to 2027. SpaceX’s post-IPO collapse from $225 to near its listing price of $150 spooked the board. CFO Sarah Friar is pushing for the delay, citing cash burn, compute commitments, and the burden of public reporting.

SpaceX: Trading around $152, near its IPO price, after hitting $225 intraday during its debut week. Down 30% from its post-IPO high. Also acquired AI coding tool Cursor and raised $25bn via a bond sale during the week.

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Watchlist

The has been showing many distribution days since the character change early June, overall price remains in a range between the washout low on June 9th and the all time high level. Until this range resolves, it’s hard to have much bias inside a neutral consolidation range.

semis have been suffering from wide volatility, often a mark of turning points. After such a big rally from April it would not be surprising for the sector to pull back more, or go through a lengthy consolidation period.

One chart that personifies this parabolic run is which when viewed on a weekly timeframe, looks like a confirmed parabolic top now.

Two semis that still look constructive are and but it’s questionable whether they can break out with the overall group under pressure.

Despite the weakness in tech, there was a large breadth surge on Friday. Many other sectors in the market are performing surprisingly well. One potential scenario is a rotation out of semis into broader areas of the market.

closed at an all time high on Friday.

broke out to new highs:

the biotech ETF has been performing well after a breakout last week:

the ARK genomic revolution ETF is also a strong subsector within biotech.

cybersecurity is consolidating after a strong leg up - and could be ready to make a move.

and look like the leaders in cybersecurity at the moment:

Crypto deserves a mention for being of the weakest assets in the market right now, consistently making new lows. is also under pressure especially as the preferred trading well under par is the tell that stress is building beneath the surface.

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Closing Thoughts

The leadership is taking a breather. Money is rotating out of the big winning semis and memory names, and the question now is whether the broadening can carry the load while the $QQQ gets dragged around by a group that looks like it has topped for now. The breadth surge on Friday says the rest of the market is willing to step up. Whether it can hold the tape together without the generals is the trade to watch.

There are stocks in uptrends, but the high-momentum tech universe we usually live in is thin on setups right now. If you do not mind slower names and lower volatility, the rotation sectors are where the clean trends are. For tech specifically, the better opportunities may be tactical shorts in the memory names, if the tape continues to show weakness and that they have genuinely topped.

Zooming out and it is simple - the easy money was April and May. Since the June top we have been chopping, and a range-bound, choppy summer would not surprise anyone. It could be a time to size down, stay patient, and give the market time. The easy trends in tech will come back once $QQQ resolves out of this range first, whichever direction it chooses.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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Last week the markets gapped up on Monday after Trump announced the Iran peace deal, carrying the snapback rally into the new week. The rest of the week came back to probe test the gap, with Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC as chair landing more hawkish than expected. But it proved a one-day reaction as buyers stepped back in and the market recovered into Thursday’s close ahead of the long weekend. The AI and tech bull market is still the main narrative here and one hawkish presser was not a character change.

With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, the war premium is bleeding out and crude lost its bid.

Technically the $QQQ is working the right side of this recovery consolidation. We remain above all upward sloping moving averages. From here it looks like a matter of time before the market presses to new highs.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Some notable ones this week:

• $AMD / $RXT | Signed a definitive agreement for phased deployment of 30 MW of AMD AI compute with Rackspace.

• $INTC / $AAPL | Trump said Apple will work with Intel to manufacture chips in the US.

• $TSEM / $MRVL | Shipped over five million coherent photonic ICs together.

• $SHAZ | Announced an oversubscribed $1.6B strategic financing to expand its AI factories.

• $HIVE | Acquiring a 32 MW data center in Boden, deepening an eight-year partnership.

• $UUUU | Received conditional US government support to accelerate rare earths and critical materials growth.

• $EOSE | Booked its first purchase order under its 2 GWh capacity reservation agreement with Frontier Power USA.

• $QURE | Got FDA clearance to file for its Huntington’s gene therapy approval.

• $MNTS | Secured a new commercial contract for its Vigoride-9 orbital service vehicle.

• $HOOD | Cutting 10% of its workforce in a restructuring.

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Watchlist

With the market recovering into an uptrend and volatility falling back down, the environment shifts back to a swing breakout regime. The read is relative strength again: who is basing, who is breaking out, and who already cleared to new highs. Setups are developing fast across semis, power, biotech, and data centers.

Semis

• $INTC | The key watch. The most important US semiconductor name, with the Trump administration invested and talking it up repeatedly. Pair that tailwind with a strong semi sector and rising CPU and AI demand, and this is a top focus for swing traders.

• While INTC remains the leader and main focus many other semis are also setting up:

Power Generation & Fuel Cells

Power for data centers has become a central theme in the AI infrastructure trade.

• $GEV | Substantial rally back.

• $BE | New all time highs Thursday, bringing fuel cells back on watch.

• $FCEL / $BLDP | Smaller cap fuel cell names back in play on the $BE move.

Data Centers

AI data centers keep showing strength with no signs of demand slowing.

• $NBIS | The clear leader, but the ideal buy point was right after the market turn. Wants some digestion or a pullback before the next entry.

• $GLXY / $RIOT / $HUT / $BRUN | Consolidating ahead of a potential breakout.

Biotech & Genomics

• $XBI / $ARKG | Biotech broke out last week, and the genomics ETF is back at prices unseen in nearly three years.

• $BEAM | The lengthiest base in the space.

• $PSNL | Recent momentum.

Software & Cyber

Cybersecurity remains the strongest pocket of software.

• $PANW | Looks like the group leader.

• $CRWD / $SNOW | Both sideways for a couple of weeks, building the next base.

Space

• $SPCX | Pulled back after pushing toward a $3 trillion cap just three days post IPO. It has offered good intraday trades nearly every day since the debut given its large daily range. Less of a directional bias here after the first rally and pullback.

Other

• $FTAI | Lengthy weekly base. Ideally forms a higher low before the pivot breakout.

• $OUST | Clearing a stage 1 base and forming a new consolidation.

Closing Thoughts

With the Iran peace deal confirmed and the market retracing much of the recent selloff, it looks like we put in a higher low. That is a healthy sign of digestion after such a strong rally off the lows. As laid out in last week’s post, the base case is that we consolidate in this range and likely press to new all time highs within a couple of weeks.

This week only bolsters that thesis. We are seeing a proliferation of emerging setups across sectors, the kind of broadening participation that tends to carry a market onward. The old saying is that it “is a market of stocks, not a stock market”, and right now plenty of those stocks look poised to advance.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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We closed last week on a near 4% Nasdaq flush, the kind of severe down day that usually sets up a bounce trade into the new week. We never got the clean entry on Monday as we gapped up, taking away the easier oversold bounce reversal.

Then on Tuesday $QQQ dropped roughly 5% intraday from the open, a rare occurence. I posted a study here:

A drop that violent isn’t normal price discovery. It’s forced selling, large deleveraging and profit taking hitting at once, the kind of positioning reset that wrings the froth out fast. Counterintuitively, that extreme type of a selloff is often where tradeable lows get formed.

The geopolitics didn’t settle any nerves midweek. Trump talked tough on Iran and floated a hard strike, and that overhang kept fear bid. Then Thursday afternoon the script flipped. He said an Iran deal was close, and the market ripped on the relief, turning the whole week around.

By Friday the tape had retraced much of Tuesday’s selloff and closed the week green. A week that opened looking like the backside of a breakdown ended up looking a lot more like a reset inside an intact uptrend.

The headline event landed Friday: the $SPCX debut. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 and closed at $160.95, up 19% from the IPO pricing, and 7.3% from the opening printm, the largest IPO in history at a valuation north of $2 trillion.

The market just absorbed a trillion-dollar market cap listing and $75B raise that closed higher on day one. That may be a sign that the bull market still has some appetite and could bode well for Anthropic’s IPO later in the year.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Some notable ones this week:

• $MRVL / $FLEX | Both added to the S&P 500 after Friday’s close, bumping $POOL and $CPB.

• $GLW / $AMZN | Amazon signed a multibillion-dollar agreement with Corning for optical fiber, cable, and connectivity.

• $APLD | Signed its third 15-year take-or-pay lease at the Delta Forge 2 AI campus with the same investment-grade hyperscaler, roughly $5.2B in contracted revenue and a backlog now near $36B across five campuses.

• $SMCI | Announced a $7B equity offering, then priced equity and equity-linked financing to fund AI orders, on the back of a rumoured $5.2B deal tied to xAI.

• $ORCL | Beat on earnings and revenue and added $20B to its planned capital raise.

• $ALAB $CRWV $NBIS $RKLB $TER | All join the Nasdaq-100 in the June rebalance.

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Watchlist

Another macro-driven open to the week, and a shortened one. Markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth.

A key event is the FOMC on Wednesday, Warsh’s first meeting and presser as chair. No move expected, they hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. This is about the dot plot and the tone he sets in his debut. How he frames the path matters more than the decision.

The other swing factor is Iran. Over the weekend Trump pushed for an imminent peace deal, even floating his birthday Sunday as the date, with the reported framework having Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the US lifts its blockade. At the time of writing, Trump has just tweeted that the peace deal is now complete. Expect further downside on oil, especially as the futures have started to break the uptrend and 50SMA over the last few weeks.

Perhaps the bigger story for the AI trade landed Friday night. The government issued an export-control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend its two newest models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security. Anthropic calls it a misunderstanding and is working to restore access. But the precedent is what matters. If the government can switch off a frontier model on national security grounds, that is a new variable in the trade. Does it push enterprises toward open source they actually control? Does regulatory risk start getting priced into the complex? Worth watching how it ripples through AI and tech this week.

Fairly sparse individual setups going into the week as most names took a hit in the pullback, so the read right now is relative strength: who held up, who rebounded hardest, and who already clawed back to new highs. That is the tell for where the next leadership comes from. More setups are likely to develop as the week progresses.

Semis

• $SNDK | One of the very few names to already print a fresh all-time high. After the last two days though, I wouldn’t chase it here without some digestion first.

• $ARM | Rebounded well off the lows, holding up better than most of the complex.

• $INTC | Six weeks of digestion now, one of the first semis to lead off the prior rally. Coiling, and could be setting up to break this multi-week consolidation soon.

Data Centers

• $NBIS | Fresh Nasdaq-100 addition. Broke its streak of descending daily bars and took out prior day highs. Looking for continuation from here.

Space

• $SPCX | On watch after the record IPO. A break of the day-one highs is the trigger, and from there I’m looking for momentum to carry.

• $SPCE | Watching for further downside as the hype fades. It ran purely on ticker confusion with $SPCX, nothing more, and that unwinds.

Software / Big Tech

• $MSFT | Hasn’t taken out a prior day high in a while, 10 red bars in a row. A simple prior day high break should be enough to trigger a bounce.

• $IGV | Same look as $MSFT, no prior day high break in multiple bars. Watch for that break to spark the bounce.

Closing Thoughts

I think we have a tradeable higher low here. The rally off Tuesday’s flush was sharp and that kind of snapback off the lows is usually the tell that the worst of the selling is behind us. I laid out the fuller read here:

Keeping in mind that the $QQQ pulled back roughly 8% from the highs, which is meaningful and the kind of flush that clears out weak hands and resets positioning. The 2000 and 2020 analogs are still the framework I’m working from. Small sample, but both were sharp pullbacks inside very strong uptrends that resolved higher once they had time to digest. If we chop sideways for a couple of weeks instead of ripping straight back, that is healthy too.

The wildcard is the Anthropic news. The export-control story is the one thing that could spook the AI trade this week, so it will be telling to see how the market handles it before leaning too hard in either direction.

As for levels, Tuesday’s low is the line in the sand. Hold above it and the higher-low thesis stays intact. Until then the job is simple: watch relative strength while the market digests. The names that hold up and rebound hardest through the chop are the ones that lead when this resolves.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

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The nine-week winning streak ended, and it ended hard. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 2.8% on the week and the Nasdaq logged its worst week since the April 2025 tariff shock. We opened at record highs and closed in a tech-led rout, a clean character change from the grind we’d been riding for two months.

The tell was there early. Coming off last week’s $DELL gap and the software rally, froth was already building, and the open made it obvious. Monday, $IBM ripped almost 20% in the overnight session off an old Trump video clip talking up the stock, then bled lower the rest of the week. $MRVL surged 25% after Jensen called it a potential trillion-dollar company at Computex.

$HPE jumped 25% on a beat and raised guidance as traders ran the $DELL playbook straight into it, before it faded back to nearly fill its earnings gap.

When names are running 20 to 25% on a clip or a comment rather than the fundamentals, that is chasing, and that flavour of euphoria tends to mark a short-term top.

The indices still printed fresh highs into the froth. The S&P closed above 7,600 for the first time on Tuesday at 7,609, and the Dow tagged a new all-time intraday high. That was the peak.

Then it started. $GOOGL slid nearly 4% on news of an $80B stock sale to fund its AI buildout, and $AVGO led the chip selloff after earnings disappointed, dragging the whole semiconductor complex lower in afterhours.

Friday was the real crack, as the former undisputed leaders rolled over, and once they went, the rest of the tape followed them down.

The semiconductor ETF $SOXX closed the week down 10%, and South Korea's $EWY, levered hard to the global chip trade, finished down 14%.

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Watchlist

This is shaping up to be more of a macro week - with volatility picking back up, the focus shifts off individual stock charts and onto the indices and big tech, since they drove the selloff and they will lead whichever way we resolve from here.

Indices / Big Tech

I posted a full study on X of every QQQ -4% drop, and it’s worth reading here:

The short version: the two windows that rhyme most closely with where we sit now are January 2000 and the summer 2020 pullback, both strong uptrend regimes that absorbed a hard -4% hit without it being the end of the rally.

• $QQQ / $SPY | In both analogs, price went on to make new highs roughly a month later, but it took a few weeks of chop to work out the volatility before the clean uptrend resumed. For that read to hold, I want the 50sma to hold as support. Lose it and the analog weakens.

  

  

• Monday open | Much of the gameplan keys off where we open. The further we gap down, the higher the odds of a snapback rally. A flattish open gives less of an edge either way.

Korea / Semis

The epicentre of the damage, and the cleanest tell for whether the AI trade stabilises or keeps bleeding.

• $EWY | Down 14% on the week. Korea is a heavy player in the AI trade, so the KOSPI futures open Sunday night is an early read on risk appetite before the US even gets going.

• $SOXX / $SOXL | $MU / $SNDK | Semis and memory names that trade similarly with Korea, all part of the same trade. Watching them as confirmation alongside the KOSPI.

Crypto

Crypto has been one of the weakest assets in the complex since the ceasefire rally began, drifting sideways for two months while stocks went vertical. The moment broad weakness showed up, it broke.

• $BTC / $ETH | Both printed fresh lows last week. However, BTC seems to be holding the prior low of $60,000 for now. Time will tell whether that is a lasting bottom.

• $BMNR | Crypto treasury stocks were also in focus last week as BMNR adopted a similar preferred shares offering, similar to Strategy. MSTR also sold Bitcoin for the first time in many years, prompting some to question if they would sell further.

  

Metals

Metals also broke some key levels on Friday.

• $GLD | Broke its 200ma for the first time in three years, with GC futures cracking earlier. A genuine character change in a higher timeframe trend.

• $SLV | The high-beta metal, broke down in sympathy.

• $GDX | Also lost its 200ma, but left a clean consolidation range to trade from.

Volatility

• $VIX / $VXX | The VIX spiked almost 40% Friday, jumping out of low territory to a 21.50 reading. The question this week is whether that vol sustains and feeds further downside, or bleeds off as the market digests.

SpaceX IPO

• $SPCX | The SpaceX listing prices Friday, the biggest IPO of all time. Regardless of how the broader tape trades, an event this size should throw off plenty of opportunity.

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Closing Thoughts

This was a week where situational awareness of the market’s subtler shifts paid off. The early froth was a tell, and I had already started to talk about some attractice tactical short ideas on Wednesday. When the Nasdaq and semis reversed and the technical structure broke down Thursday into Friday, I came in with minimal long exposure and a short bias already built, positioned to capture the move down rather than wear it. The shorts kept the portfolio at highs with minimal drawdown, now ready for whatever sets up next instead of digging out of a hole.

Zooming out, the regime may be shifting. We’ve had an easy two-month grind, low volatility, swing longs and breakouts paying out in textbook easy-money conditions. That kind of environment never lasts forever, and it may need to take a breather for a few weeks while this pullback works itself out. We’re also heading into the summer months, which historically tend to run slower and choppier.

The play from here is to stay nimble and open-minded without losing sight of the bigger picture. For all the damage, this is still the first real pullback of an exceptionally strong trend, and that trend is a long way from being proven broken. Respect the volatility, trade smaller and faster while it’s elevated, and let the market show its hand before betting on which way it resolves.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we closed on the Iran framework deal gapping the market to fresh highs, with the digestion resolving to the upside. This week extended that strength into a ninth consecutive weekly gain, and it came in a holiday-shortened four-day week after Memorial Day. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580, the Dow at 51,032, and the Nasdaq at 26,973, with all three printing fresh all-time intraday highs along the way.

There were a few macro news to note which was mostly ignored by the market - fresh US “self-defense” strikes on Iran over the long weekend, April PCE at 3.8% year-on-year (the hottest in nearly three years), University of Michigan sentiment at a record low, and yet another Axios peace deal report that briefly knocked WTI below $90 before it climbed back. The tape priced all of it as noise and kept grinding higher.

Under the surface there was real rotation. Semis ran six days in a row before a sharp pullback on Wednesday, then went sideways into the end of the week to digest the move. $MU stood out, picking up a fresh price target at nearly double its current level. Then late in the week the rotation shifted hard into software, with $IGV catching a bid sparked by a bullish earnings report and a gap up in $SNOW.

The standout in AI infrastructure was $DELL, which surged 33% on Friday for its best day on record after a blowout quarter. Revenue came in at a record $43.8 billion, up 88% year-on-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $4.86, up 214%. AI-optimised server revenue exploded 757% to $16.1 billion, and the company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders on the quarter. Management raised full-year guidance to roughly $167 billion at the midpoint, up nearly 50% year-on-year, and lifted its FY27 AI server revenue outlook to $60 billion. The print reframes Dell as a core AI infrastructure name rather than a legacy hardware story.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

Some notable catalysts to be aware of from last week:

• Space (Blue Origin): A Blue Origin accident rattled the space complex late in the week, with Bezos confirming no personnel injuries but sympathy names taking the hit.

• SpaceX IPO: The road show is on track to begin in the coming weeks, keeping the whole space sector bid into the listing.

• SpaceX valuation: Reports circulated that the target was cut from $2T toward $1.8T, though Elon publicly refuted the claims on X.

• Drones: The Trump administration is reportedly weighing direct funding and potential equity stakes in domestic drone makers to cut Chinese component dependence.

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Watchlist

It’s been a fairly diverse momentum market with new catalysts emerging every week, far too many to fit in one post. If you want to keep track of every setup I’m watching and catalysts as they hit in real time, that all lives over in the Valhalla Portal as well as the discord.

Semis

• $NVDA | The Vera CPU announcement is the story with NVDA now stepping directly into the CPU and PC market, and the stock is firmly in play.

• $ARM, $AMD, $INTC | The open question into next week is whether the incumbents take any heat from NVDA’s entry, or whether the CPU pie simply expands. Worth watching how each trades relative to the headline.

AI Infrastructure / Data Centers

• $DELL | Post-earnings gap is the setup. Watching for whether it enters a constructive digestion period like $AMD and $CSCO did recently after their own gaps, rather than chasing the move.

• $CRWV | Dell tweeted about the first Rubin datacenter rack, which could spark fresh momentum across the group. $CRWV looks poised for a rally, especially off Friday’s strong close.

• $NBIS | The Aschenbrenner stake adds fuel and the chart looks ready for new all-time highs.

Drones

Fresh theme off the Trump administration’s domestic drone funding plans.

• $UMAC | At all-time highs and the named primary beneficiary, looking like the clear sector leader.

• $ONDS | Trading on huge volume and pressing right up against all-time highs.

• $RCAT | On watch as the sympathy name in the group.

Software

Last week’s rotation into software is worth tracking to see if it has legs.

• $MSFT | Just broke out of a multi-week consolidation - a breakout we flagged and entered a position in on Friday.

• have been consolidating post earnings and could be trends to join if software remain strong.

• Cybersecurity | Many names have been extremely strong but aren’t really actionable here given how extended the rallies are.

Space

• $SPCE | Seeing WallStreetBets activity and shaping up as the meme squeeze vehicle of the sector. Trading high volatility with a wide range, an active ticker in play.

• $FJET | On watch in the broader space complex.

• $ASTS, $RDW, $RKLB | All gapped down on the valuation rumors but bounced back, holding up well.

Nukes

• $IMSR, $SMR, $OKLO | The nuclear complex started seeing some constructive action last week with potential to start breaking its downtrends.

Quantum

• $QBTS, $RGTI, $INFQ, $IONQ | After digesting the initial leg up last week, these also look poised for potential breakouts.

Closing Thoughts

The market remains strong. Even with semis pulling back this week, money rotated straight into other corners of the tape, which is exactly the behaviour you want to see in a healthy bull market. There’s movement everywhere right now, from small caps to mid caps to large caps, and the charts broadly look like they could have another leg up from here.

The one thing worth watching in the coming weeks is the SpaceX IPO. Given the sheer size of the listing, there’s a real chance it pulls liquidity out of the rest of the market as capital rotates in, which could act as a short-term pullback catalyst. Worth keeping on the radar, but nothing that changes the constructive picture heading in.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we flagged the market as taking a breather and the potential start of a consolidation. The week opened heavy on bond yields. The 30-year broke out to 5.2% on Tuesday, the highest level since 2007, as the market priced in sticky inflation, a new Fed chair, and the ongoing Iran overhang. Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday, with traders now betting on zero cuts for the remainder of 2026 and a non-trivial probability of a hike. That bond move pulled equities lower into midweek.

NVDA reported Wednesday after close and delivered another stellar quarter. The board approved an additional $80B buyback and raised the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25. The stock pulled back marginally as has been the way for the last few quarters, especially after rallying into the print.

Multiple headlines through the back half of the week pointed toward an imminent Iran resolution, and the market started grinding back. Over the weekend a framework deal was reported between the U.S. and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With cash markets closed Monday for Memorial Day, the reaction played out in futures: Nasdaq futures up 1.4% and printing fresh all-time highs, ES up 1%, WTI down over 6% to roughly $90.

The IPO pipeline is also filling up. SpaceX confirmed its filing targeting the June 12 listing under $SPCX, and OpenAI is now rumored to file in the coming weeks.

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Watchlist

The market has been strong and there’s a wide spread of themes working right now, from semis to optical computing, space, data centers and their adjacents including renewable energy. The full watchlist would be too long to walk through here and lives in the Valhalla Portal, but here are some notable ones I’m watching into next week.

Semis

Semis remain one of the key leading sectors in the market. $SOXX held the 20 EMA on the daily almost to the tick and is back near highs, which is exactly the kind of constructive digestion we wanted to see after the parabolic stretch.

• $AMD | One of the leading semis. Broke out to fresh all-time highs last week on the ongoing CPU story, holding up cleanly despite $NVDA’s entrance into the CPU market.

• $SNDK, $MU | On watch as both bounce back after recent pullbacks.

• $MXL | Hasn’t given much back, consolidating tightly near highs.

Quantum

The other big sector move of the week. The Trump administration announced $2B in CHIPS Act grants across nine quantum computing companies in exchange for minority equity stakes, putting the sector squarely on the table as a strategic priority alongside semis, nuclear, and rare earths.

• $IBM | $1B grant to build Anderon, America’s first purpose-built quantum foundry, plus IBM committing another $1B in cash. However the stock remains under the long term 200-SMA

• $GFS | $375M for domestic quantum chip manufacturing capacity. Same theme on the foundry side, but stock is at all time highs.

• $INFQ, $RGTI, $QBTS | The speculative end. Each receiving ~$100M, all posted multi-day rallies. Large intraday ranges and strong liquidity make these clean trading vehicles into next week.

Data Centers / Neoclouds

• $NBIS | Rallied Thursday on a price target hike, continues to digest recent strength. Still the clear leader.

• $APLD | Hit a data center milestone Thursday and printed a new high.

• $CIFR, $IREN | Both have been in long weekly bases that could break in the near term. These are the names to watch for the next rotation up.

• $HIVE | New Canadian data center catalyst, with Leopold Aschenbrenner (popular growth investor) taking a position.

• $HUT | Still on watch after digesting around the $100 mark post earnings gap.

Power

Fuel cells and renewable energy have been a strong theme as power constraints remain a structural bottleneck for the data center buildout. This is the picks-and-shovels angle on the AI infrastructure trade.

• $BE, $FCEL, $BLDP | All had strong rallies last week and require some digestion.

• had a major earnings move but has since pulled back and is potentially forming a higher low.

Space

With the SpaceX IPO confirmed for June 12, the space complex saw broad strength last week as sympathy bids start to filter in.

• $RKLB | Gapped down on the announcement of a $3B ATM, but seemingly didn’t tap it. Recovered the drop and pushed to fresh all-time highs on a $89.5M Space Force satellite contract.

• $ASTS | The SpaceX competitor angle but has been up 2 strong days already.

• $RDW | New highs.

• $DXYZ | Closed end fund that holds SpaceX, has been seeing strong momentum.

• Other space stocks can be found in the Valhalla Portal theme watchlists:

Finally it’s worth noting that /CL crude oil futures gapped down on Monday after the Iran peace deal news and could be breaking the 50-SMA for the first time since the war started.

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Closing Thoughts

Heading into the week with the Iran peace deal looming, crude breaking down, and the market gapping to all-time highs, the digestion from last week was resolved quickly to the upside - another sign of the incredible strength in this tape.

Breakouts have been working across the board, but it’s still prudent to take proper entries rather than chase extended rallies. Plenty of charts look constructive heading in, and there’s no doubt we’ll see more interesting developments across the AI space over the week.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we flagged the leadership semiconductor stocks as parabolic and asked whether the broader tape would get pulled into digestion with them or whether rotation would carry the move. We got the answer this week. The QQQ printed a weekly red doji candle after six straight weeks of gains, semis and memory finally started to give back some of the move, and the tape has potentially shifted into a consolidation phase. How long that lasts, whether it’s a couple of weeks of sideways action or something deeper, is the open question.

The week was dominated by geopolitics rather than earnings. Trump’s visit to Beijing on May 14-15 was the headline event and delivered very little of substance, with nebulous commitments on agricultural and oil purchases, some talk of reopening chip sales, no firm deal on the Strait of Hormuz, and tariffs apparently not even on the table. The more interesting wrinkle was Taiwan, where Trump called the pending $14B arms sale “a very good negotiating chip” and declined to confirm whether the U.S. would defend the island, prompting Xi to warn that mishandling the issue would put the relationship “in great jeopardy.”

Friday’s selloff had a few overlapping drivers. Korea sold off overnight which set a soft tone for the open, Powell’s term winding down with the Warsh confirmation process moving forward kept the policy transition front of mind, and the US 2-year and 10-year both broke out, which reads as the market starting to test the incoming Fed chair. Layer that onto a tape that’s already six weeks extended and needing to digest, and you get the kind of session we saw to close the week.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

$NBIS | The data center print of the week. Q1 revenue of $399M (+684% YoY) blew past estimates, adjusted EBITDA flipped to a $129.5M profit, and they disclosed up to 1.2 GW secured in Pennsylvania for a new AI factory. Stock hit an all-time high of $214 intraday before settling +7% on the session.

$CSCO | Beat-and-raise quarter with record revenue of $15.84B and raised full-year AI infrastructure orders forecast to $9B, paired with ~4,000 job cuts to reallocate spend into AI. Stock surged 17% to a record high, biggest single-day gain in over two decades.

$FIG | Q1 revenue of $333.4M (+46% YoY) crushed estimates, raised full-year guide by $55M, NDR hit 139% (highest in over two years). Stock jumped 13% post-print, though the filing flagged Anthropic federal supply chain risk as an overhang.

$ONDS | Beat-and-raise blowout. Q1 revenue of $50.1M (+1000% YoY, 25% above the high end of guidance), pro forma backlog grew to $457M from $68M, raised full-year revenue forecast to $390M, plus a Palantir partnership announced alongside. Stock closed +26%.

$CRCL | Q1 revenue of $694M (+20% YoY), USDC circulation at $77B (+28% YoY), onchain transaction volume of $21.5T (+263% YoY). First print since the Clarity Act compromise, with a $222M ARC token presale at a $3B FDV from a heavyweight investor consortium also disclosed.

$POET | Announced a US$400M registered direct offering of common shares and warrants Friday, on the back of the Lumilens partnership advancing wafer-level photonic integration for next-gen AI optical networks.

$IREN | Announced a proposed convertible notes offering Monday to fund continued AI cloud expansion.

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Watchlist

Semis

The headline event this week is $NVDA earnings Wednesday after close. Going in, the broader group has started to roll over, which is exactly the kind of digestion we were watching for last week. The question now is whether NVDA delivers the catalyst that re-ignites the move or accelerates the pullback.

• $SOXL, $INTC | Watching to see if they continue pulling back after the historic rally.

• $MU, $SNDK | Same idea on the memory side. Both were extended, starting to give back.

The Cerebras IPO debuted last week and the early action is the read here.

• $CBRS | $350 is the inflection point IPO price. Above and the trend stays constructive, below and the name remains weak. Clean line in the sand.

• $POET | Continued fade likely with the $400M registered direct offering dilution overhang now sitting on the tape.

The bigger IPO story is still ahead. SpaceX is targeting an Initial Public Offering on June 12, aiming to raise upwards of $80B on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. That’s the kind of event that pulls sympathy bids into the entire space complex in the lead up.

Space

• $RKLB | Strong, not much to do here. Holding the post-earnings breakout cleanly.

• $ASTS | News flow plus a 200 SMA reclaim attempt is the setup. Watching for follow-through.

• $RDW | Data centers in space narrative, watching for momentum off catalyst flow.

• $SATL | On watch as a sympathy name in the broader space complex into the SpaceX IPO setup.

Data Centers

Most of the group has entered consolidation ranges. $NBIS remains the clear leader at all-time highs post-earnings. Many of the others could become constructive post-market pullback if they break out of their bases.

• $IREN, $CIFR, $HUT | All on watch for base breakouts. These are the names to focus on if the data center group rotates back to leadership.

Crypto

The complex is weak heading into the week. $ETH broke a recent range but remains inside the larger monthly ranges, so the trend is still undecided at the bigger picture level.

• $BMNR | On watch within crypto-adjacent names.

Cybersecurity

Worth flagging that cybersecurity stocks are strong but there’s no actionable setup right now. Worth keeping on the radar for when one of these names tightens up into a clean base.

• $CRWD, $PANW, $FTNT | All strong, none with an immediate trigger.

Closing Thoughts

The bulk of earnings season is behind us with just $NVDA left to go on Wednesday, still important given it’s the largest company in the world. QQQ tech and semis have started to pull back, which is healthy after an extended run rather than anything to read into negatively.

A quieter catalyst calendar paired with a tape that’s still digesting makes this a week to be reactive rather than aggressive. After a rally of this magnitude, most traders are sitting on real swing profits. The job now is protecting them. Letting the market come to you and not giving back hard-earned gains while it works through this digestion phase is the right posture here.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we left off saying the megacap earnings clearing event was behind us and the market looked set up to continue higher. That’s exactly what we got. The S&P 500 closed up 2.3% on the week, the Nasdaq up 4.5%, both printing fresh all-time highs into Friday’s close at 7,399 and 26,247. The Dow nudged up a token 12 points to 49,609. This was the sixth consecutive weekly gain for the indices, the longest winning streak since 2024, and the dispersion between the Dow and the Nasdaq tells you exactly where the money is going.

The week did not start cleanly. Monday opened with Iran striking a South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting the geopolitical tail risk that had been quietly fading from the tape. The S&P slid 0.4%, the Dow dropped 1.1%, and VIX spiked 7.65% to 18.29. By Wednesday, Axios reported the U.S. and Iran were nearing a deal including a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, and the response was immediate. The S&P jumped 1.46%, the Nasdaq ripped 2.02%, WTI cratered nearly 9% to around $93, and Brent fell 7.7%.

Under the hood, semis and memory continued their vertical move. SMH popped over 3% to a new 52-week high, with Friday alone delivering Micron +13%, Qualcomm +9%, and AMD +8%. AMD was the standout of the week, up 20% to cross $700 billion in market cap on a clean Q1 print, and now up nearly 90% over the past month. The memory complex $SNDK, $MU as well as semis like $INTC have continued their ascent and are now flirting with parabolic territory.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.

Mega AI Capex / Hyperscaler Deals

$NBIS | Nebius-Microsoft deal, upfront prepayment pegged at ~40% of TCV ($6.95B on $17.39B contract value). Massive expansion of the Microsoft compute relationship, follows the Eigen AI acquisition from last week.

$GOOG / $GOOGL | The Information reported Anthropic commits to spending $200B on Google’s cloud and chips. Major TPU validation, huge Alphabet tailwind.

$AAPL / $INTC | WSJ reported Friday that Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary chip-making agreement. Big domestic semi story, reinforces the Intel turnaround thesis from prior weeks.

Earnings That Mattered

$AMD | Forecasts quarterly revenue above expectations on AI chip demand. Reported Tuesday.

$AAON | Record Q1 sales and backlog, raised full-year guide. Data center HVAC tailwind.

$RKLB | Q1 surpassed all guidance metrics, plus $30M HASTE hypersonic contract from Anduril.

$CRWV | Widened Q1 loss as costs outpaced revenue growth. The data center print we were watching from last week, did not deliver.

$DOCN | Q1 revenue $258M (+22% YoY), beat estimates.

$STRL | Record Q1, raised full-year 2026 guidance.

AI Infrastructure / Data Centers

$IREN | Acquisition of Mirantis to strengthen AI cloud delivery capabilities, plus AI cloud platform expansion to Europe.

$NVDA / $GLW | Long-term partnership to strengthen US manufacturing for AI infrastructure.

$AKAM | Frontier model provider committed $1.8B over seven years for Akamai’s Cloud Inference platform.

$DGXX | Digi Power X AI colocation agreement, 40 MW data center in Columbiana.

$FLEX | Plans to spin off power and cloud infrastructure business into a separate public company by Q1 2027.

Macro

Iran Deal | White House nearing one-page MOU with Iran to halt fighting. War pause and nuclear talks. Major macro overlay.

Meme / Special Situation

$GME / $EBAY | GameStop preparing offer for eBay confirmed Monday. Then Michael Burry sells all GameStop stock per WSJ. Two-sided story.

Stablecoin / Crypto Regulation

$CRCL | Circle jumps 16% on Clarity Act compromise that preserves stablecoin rewards.

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Watchlist

Memory and Semis

The memory and semi complex stays top of the watchlist as it approaches parabolic territory. The ideal setup from here is another two days of range expansion that finally capitulates the move, giving us a clean exhaustion signal. The risk is that these names are already extended enough to reverse without ever giving us the textbook setup, so they stay on permawatch with the focus on intraday signals. The tell will be gap exhaustion off the open, any change of character that breaks the trend, or names getting sold under VWAP and failing to reclaim.

• $MU, $SNDK | The clear leaders of the memory move, both in advanced extension.

• $INTC, $AMD, $SOXL | Semi side of the same story.

• DRAM | ETF for memory stocks that includes SK Hynix

If semis don’t immediately reverse to start the week, could be a name to watch for a breakout off its base.

Space

$RKLB had a major breakout day Friday post-earnings, emerging from a daily cup and handle base into fresh all-time highs - bought this Friday for a swing trade. With the SpaceX IPO expected later in the summer, the space sector remains a high-priority theme for breakouts and sympathy plays in the smaller names.

• $SATS, $SATL, $ASTS, $RDW | Sympathy names for the broader space theme. All on watch for follow-through if $RKLB continues to lead.

Data Centers

The data center group reported with mixed reactions last week. $CRWV widened its Q1 loss as costs outpaced revenue growth, which was not the print we wanted given how cleanly it bounced from $100 the prior week. $IREN was more constructive with the Mirantis acquisition and the European AI cloud expansion. $NBIS reports this week, with the recently announced $17.39B Microsoft contract and the Eigen AI acquisition both in the price now. That print sets the tone for whether the group can re-establish leadership or whether the post-earnings reactions stay choppy.

• $CRWV, $IREN | Both reported. Watching for price action follow-through over the coming sessions.

• $NBIS | Reports this week. Important data center print given the leadership it’s been displaying in the group.

AI / Earnings Breakouts

A handful of names emerged from earnings with clean technical setups worth pressing.

• $AKAM | Major stage 1 earnings breakout, with the announcement that a leading U.S. frontier model provider has committed $1.8B over seven years to its Cloud Inference platform. Clean breakout from a long base on a high-quality fundamental catalyst.

• $RXT | Small cap momentum off the Rackspace-AMD memorandum of understanding establishing a new category of governed AI infrastructure.

• $CBRS | Cerebras IPO this week, one of the most anticipated AI listings of the year. On watch for the debut.

• $DGXX, $WYFI | Adjacent names with Cerebras business exposure. $DGXX signed an AI colocation agreement for a 40 MW data center in Columbiana last week, $WYFI provides the cooling and infrastructure layer for Cerebras deployments. Both on watch as sympathy plays into the IPO.

Exhaustion Watch

• $DXYZ | After capturing a clean swing on this name, now in exhaustion watch territory. Watching for a gap up on Monday.

Earnings to Watch This Week

• $CRCL

• $HIMS

• $ASTS

• $RGTI

• $OKLO

• $NBIS

• $CSCO

• $ONDS

• $FIG

Closing Thoughts

The leadership names carrying the tape, $SNDK, $MU, $INTC, $AMD, are now in majorly extended territory. I wrote a piece breaking down what happened to the winning stocks of 2024 after $NVDA and $SMCI topped that year, which also had similar parabolic rallies.

The question this week remains whether these names reverse, and what happens to the rest of the market if and when they do. Either the broader tape gets pulled into a digestion phase with them, or rotation continues and the post-earnings breakouts hold up as the next leg of leadership. Both are live scenarios and worth being more cautious here than we have been over the past few weeks.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week we left off asking whether the hyperscalers would reinforce the AI capex story Intel had just confirmed, or whether the rally would narrow further into a handful of semi names. We also flagged semis as short-term overextended and were watching for a short trade into continued overextension, expecting a pullback overall, which played out.

Digestion started on cue Monday, with semis fading off the open as the parabolic move finally caught up with price. Then Tuesday morning the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI had missed its own revenue and user growth targets, with CFO Sarah Friar reportedly raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to fund its compute contracts. The market gapped down, semis took the brunt of it, and for a few hours it looked like the deeper digestion everyone was waiting for had finally arrived.

By the cash open the move had largely completed. Sam Altman publicly refuted the report later in the session, the bid came back into semis, and the tape went vertical for the rest of the week. SOXX closed Friday at a new all-time high. The pullback we wanted lasted roughly 2 days. SPX and NDX both printed fresh highs, VIX stayed suppressed throughout.

The hyperscaler gauntlet was the other half of the story and the reaction was mixed. . Total hyperscaler AI capex for 2026 is now tracking toward $700 billion, but the market did not reward the spending in aggregate. It rewarded spending tied to clear near-term monetization. Alphabet ripped on a print that paired aggressive capex with visible cloud and search revenue acceleration. Meta sold off hard as guidance pushed capex higher without a tangible revenue offset. Microsoft saw modest weakness on the same theme. Apple and Amazon were mixed.

With the megacaps now through the gauntlet, the biggest binary risk of earnings season is behind us. Plenty of reports still to come this week, so the landmines are not gone, but the heaviest weight on the index has lifted.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.

OpenAI / WSJ | Wall Street Journal reported Monday afternoon that OpenAI missed key revenue and user targets in its high-stakes sprint toward IPO. Triggered a Tuesday gap down across semis and the broader tape. Sam Altman publicly refuted the report, the pullback completed by the cash open, and SOXX went on to close the week at a new ATH. Adding weight to the story, MSFT was reported to no longer be paying a revenue share to OpenAI.

$GOOGL | Cleanest hyperscaler print of the week. Stock climbed after Q1 EPS blew past estimates, with capex paired against visible cloud and search revenue acceleration. The market’s template for what AI spending should look like.

$META | Sold off hard. Capex guidance pushed higher without a near-term revenue offset to anchor the spend. The clearest example this week of capex without monetization getting punished.

FOMC | The Fed held rates steady. Powell announced he will stay on the Board of Governors beyond his May 15 chair term expiry until the HQ renovation investigation concludes. Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination along party lines. Leadership transition story now in motion.

$LLY | Eli Lilly Q1 was a blowout. Revenue $19.80B vs $17.77B estimate (+56% YoY), adjusted EPS $8.55 vs $7.06 (+156%). Reaffirms the GLP-1 cash machine thesis.

$CRML | Announced the acquisition of European Lithium for $835M. Critical minerals theme back on the radar.

$BE | Bloom Energy reported record Q1 results and raised full year 2026 guidance. Followed up by news that Oracle will now power its Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico with up to 2.45 GW of Bloom fuel cells. Direct hyperscaler-to-fuel-cell pipeline confirmation.

$RDDT | Reddit reported a 69% jump in revenue, topping analyst estimates.

$ROKU / $TWLO / $TEAM | All three raised annual revenue forecasts on Thursday, with Atlassian and Twilio specifically calling out AI-driven enterprise demand. Software AI monetization showing up in guides.

$SNDK | Q3 was a blowout earnings report.

$NBIS | Agreed to acquire Eigen AI on Friday, strengthening Nebius Token Factory as a frontier inference platform. Vertical integration play in the AI infra stack.

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Watchlist

Earnings season rolls on. The megacaps are through, but the calendar this week is loaded with names from across my watchlist and the broader growth complex. The names I am watching most closely:

AI Infrastructure / Networking

• $ANET, $ALAB, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI

Semis

• $AMD, $ARM, $ON, $NVTS

Datacenters

• $CRWV, $IREN, $HUT, $WULF

Software AI

• $PLTR, $FSLY

Others

• $COIN, $SOUN, $IONQ, $BWXT, $RKLB

IWM looks ready to make a second leg out of its recent consolidation. If it confirms, that is a green light for small and midcap growth and the more speculative themes that have been waiting on broader risk appetite to come back online.

Data Centers

Last week we flagged $NBIS at the $140 area and $CRWV at $100 as the cleaner first-pullback setups in the group. Both bounced from those levels and finished the week strong, exactly how the setup was supposed to play out.

• $CRWV | Bounced from $100. Reports this week, the print will set the tone for the group.

• $NBIS | Bounced from $140. Reports next week, with the Eigen AI acquisition adding to the story.

• $RIOT | Reported this week but no follow-through on Friday. On the radar but waiting on price to confirm before doing anything.

Post Earnings Strength

Semis

• $QCOM | Reported, holding up well.

• SIMO MRAM

Software

Three names that lifted full year guides on AI-driven enterprise demand and got rewarded. Watching for follow-through.

• $TEAM | Atlassian lifted annual revenue forecast on AI features and enterprise sales boost.

• $TWLO | Raised annual revenue growth forecast on AI-driven demand, breaking out of a big stage 1 base.

• $ROKU | Raised annual platform revenue forecast.

Rare Earths

Critical minerals back in focus after the $CRML acquisition of European Lithium for $835M. Group tends to move together, IWM strength would give the smaller names room to run.

• $UAMY, $CRML, $USAR, $MP

Memory

The entire memory group had major beats this earnings cycle and remains one of the leading areas in the market. These names should be on permawatch given their continued strength and ongoing all-time highs.

• $SNDK | Blowout earnings, dipped to $1000 and into new all time highs. As one of the leading and best performing momentum stocks in the market for the past year it’s hard to see this topping out without parabolic action.

• WDC STX MU rest of the group remain strong and trading in tandem

Others

$GME | WSJ reported Friday that GameStop is preparing a takeover bid for eBay, with Ryan Cohen building a position in the name and planning to make an offer this month. eBay shares jumped more than 10% on the news. If GME catches momentum on this, it has the meme heritage to be interesting. On the radar if it gets going.

Closing Thoughts

The potential pullback on semis from last week showed up, lasted two days, and got bought aggressively. When a market refuses to give you the deeper retracement everyone is positioned for, that is information about who is in control of the tape.

With the megacaps earnings past a clearing event, the market looks sets up to continue higher from here. The job now is to ride what is already working. Memory is leading, semis are back at highs, the data center pullbacks did exactly what they were supposed to do, and post-earnings strength names are setting up cleanly. If IWM confirms its second leg out of consolidation, the small and midcap growth complex opens up as the next area to lean into. Plenty of opportunity ahead, the focus is staying selective and pressing the names that have already proven themselves through the print.

If you enjoyed this read, please consider leaving a like on the post, and let me know in the comments if I missed anything or what you’re watching for this week!

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week, we left off asking what happens next after the 13-session Nasdaq streak and the best weekly return for the S&P since last May. The answer this week was deceptively quiet at the index level. From Monday through Thursday, SPY traded in one of the tightest consolidation ranges we have seen in months. Five sessions of sideways grinding, barely a 1% pullback inside the range, no real selling pressure into the geopolitical noise. That kind of price action is textbook bullish digestion. By Friday’s close, the S&P was at 7,165 and the Nasdaq at 24,837, both fresh record highs, with the Dow the lone laggard down 0.4% on the week as cyclicals and industrials trailed the tech tape.

The main story this week was semiconductors. Intel reported Thursday night and ripped 25% on Friday to a new all-time high, surpassing its dot-com era record after more than two decades. Revenue and EPS both beat cleanly, data center and AI revenue grew 22%, and foundry revenue was up 16%. The print landed like a thesis confirmation for everyone who has been bullish on the semi capex cycle, and the sympathy move on Friday was massive. AMD added 12%. ARM, MRVL, SMCI, ASML, and TSMC all gained 3.5% or more in a single session.

Worth being clear-eyed about what this means. Semis are now short-term very extended. The overall recent move is nearing some parabolic action and a sign that some digestion is likely coming. That said, the bigger picture matters, this is the first real leg out of the market correction we sat through from October till March. Given that this is the first leg, it’s more likely that this pullback will be bought, and the medium to long-term setup for semis and the broader index by extension, looks like it is building for another move higher rather than topping.

The geopolitical backdrop stayed messy and the market kept ignoring it. Trump cancelled the planned envoy visit to Pakistan over the weekend after Iran’s foreign minister left Islamabad without a meeting. The blockade is still in place, the Strait is still effectively closed, and a leaked Pentagon assessment now says it could take up to six months to clear the Iranian mines even if a deal got done tomorrow. Crude drifted lower regardless, with WTI at $94 and Brent at $105, suggesting traders are treating the conflict as priced-in noise. The VIX dropped to 18.71, the lowest close in months. Earnings season is tracking 15.1% blended Q1 growth ahead of next week’s gauntlet of Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.

$INTC | Intel reported Thursday night with Q1 results topping estimates across the board. Stock surged 25% on Friday to a new all-time high, surpassing its dot-com era record after more than two decades. Data center and AI revenue grew 22%, foundry revenue up 16%. The print dragged the entire semi complex with it. AMD +12%, with ARM, MRVL, SMCI, ASML, and TSMC all gaining 3.5% or more on Friday alone.

$AAPL | Apple named John Ternus CEO, replacing Tim Cook, who transitions to chairman. The first leadership change at the top of Apple in over a decade.

$AMZN / Anthropic | Amazon committed up to another $25B to Anthropic as part of a broader AI infrastructure deal. Adds to the growing list of hyperscaler-AI capex commitments and reinforces the revenue story underpinning the semi cycle.

$GOOGL / $MRVL | Google in talks with Marvell to build new custom AI chips for inference, per The Information. Marvell followed it up Wednesday with the acquisition of Polariton Technologies, pushing optical performance scaling to 3.2T and beyond. Strong week for the name on multiple fronts.

$NFLX | Netflix announced a $25B share buyback, one of the largest single-name authorizations in recent memory.

MACRO | Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday, calling Iran’s government “seriously fractured.” Markets treated it as a positive but the situation deteriorated by the weekend, with Trump cancelling the planned envoy visit to Pakistan after Iran’s foreign minister left Islamabad without a meeting.

$VRT / $GEV | Two AI infrastructure plays beat hard. Vertiv posted Q1 with diluted EPS growth of 136% and raised full-year guidance. GE Vernova lifted annual revenue forecast on data center demand. Continued confirmation of the data center buildout thesis.

$ASTS | Mixed week. BlueBird 7 placed into an orbit too low to sustain operations after a New Glenn launch vehicle issue on Monday. Recovered by Wednesday when the FCC granted commercial authority for direct-to-device cellular broadband from space.

Psychedelics | $CMPS, $ATAI, $DFTX, $PBM all ripped Monday after Trump signed an executive order to fast-track research and patient access to psychedelic therapies.

$NOW | ServiceNow Q1 beat with revenue $3.77B (+22% YoY) and adjusted EPS in line. Software AI thesis still holding.

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Watchlist

Semis: Pullback Watch

The group is short-term extended after last weeks almost parabolic move. Watching for a possible short trade into Monday/Tuesday strength if extension continues without digestion.

Names in focus:

• SOXL | Leveraged ETF vehicle for the trade.

• $MXL | Massive earnings gap up. Watching how it consolidates the move.

• $INTC | The Friday earnings ripper.

• $AMD | Pure sympathy on Friday, also extended.

Data Center / AI Infrastructure

The group had some sell pressure on Friday, but after last week’s run, two of the cleaner names are now setting up first pullbacks after initial breakouts.

• $NBIS | First pullback after breakout. Watching the $140 area, which aligns with prior ATH retest and the 20 EMA. Could probe a little deeper before stabilising.

• $CRWV | Watching the $100 area. Round number support, aligns with the 200 SMA. Clean technical confluence.

Storage / Memory

• $SNDK | Earnings Thursday. Hit $1,000 on Friday and could break above that level into the print this week. The reaction will set the tone for the broader memory complex.

• $MU | Broke out last week. Likely to move in sympathy with SNDK, both into earnings and on the reaction.

Speculative

• $HIMS | Continuation flag after the peptide news from a few weeks ago. Constructive short term consolidation, but has headwinds from being in a longer term downtrend underneath the 200sma.

• $XNDU | Tightening up. Setup is binary, ready to move either direction.

Nuclear / IPO Watch

• $XE | Nuclear IPO from Friday. The reaction will tell us whether the broader nuclear theme has another leg. If $XE catches and trades over IPO highs, watching the rest of the group for sympathy.

• $OKLO | Got a boost on Thursday from the Nvidia and Los Alamos partnership news.

• $IMSR | Watching alongside OKLO for sympathy if XE rips.

Closing Thoughts

Semis need to digest the recent almost parabolic move, and price action like that almost always demands a pullback before the next leg. That is not a bearish call, it is just how first legs out of correction tend to behave. The setup we want is exactly that pullback in the leaders.

Next week is going to hinge on the megacap hyperscaler reports. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet all on deck. Their guidance is what determines whether the AI capex story Intel just confirmed gets reinforced at the top of the food chain, or whether the rally narrows further into a handful of semi names.

Zooming out, the overall tape is still extremely bullish. The trend is intact, the indices are at highs, and the structure is constructive. But the initial everything rally that started in early April, with broad participation and a healthy dose of short covering, petered out last week. Breadth started to roll over even as the indices made new highs, with semis doing most of the carrying. That is a signal to shift gears. The easy beta phase of this move is behind us. Now it is about being selective, focusing on names with real catalysts, and respecting the fact that earnings season this week will create both the opportunities and the landmines.

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week I flagged that the reaction to the gap down was the most important thing to watch. The reaction was extremely bullish, and markets rallied all week to fresh all time highs. I’ve been cautiously bullish since two weeks ago, but even I was surprised by the extent of the strength.

The S&P 500 finished the week up 4.5%, its best weekly performance since May 2025 and a third consecutive weekly gain, marking the longest winning streak since October. Friday’s closes were SPX 7,126, Dow 49,447, Nasdaq 24,468, and Russell 2000 2,776. The standout number was on the Nasdaq Composite, which notched its 13th straight green session to close out the week, the longest streak of its kind since 1992. Momentum readings pushed into the top 1% of historical distributions:

CTAs have flipped to buyers:

The VIX collapsed to 17.48 by Friday, well off the 11 month high printed back in March. Every lens you look through points the same direction.

The weekend brought a different set of headlines. On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial traffic, and oil sold off hard in response. WTI dropped 11.5% to $83.78 and Brent fell 10.8% to $88.67. Over the weekend that story reversed, with reports the Strait had closed again after agreements were not upheld. News flow has been back and forth with a lot of noise, and it’s fair to say the situation remains fluid into the open.

The tape is due a pullback regardless of what Iran does next. After a run like this, digestion is the base case, not the risk. Whether this weekend’s headlines end up being the catalyst or just background noise is what the first couple of sessions this week will tell us.

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Catalysts Over the Last Week

As always, the activity feed inside the Valhalla Portal has been logging every major catalyst I’ve flagged throughout the week. Screenshot from this week below, full feed is live in the Portal.

AI Infrastructure

• $CRWV: Jane Street signed a $6 billion AI cloud agreement with CoreWeave. Validates CoreWeave as a tier one counterparty for the most demanding compute users and a meaningful read through for the whole neocloud bucket.

• $BE / $ORCL: Expanded partnership to deploy up to 2.8 GW of power for AI infrastructure buildout. Reinforces the energy for compute thesis running through natural gas, nuclear, and fuel cells.

• $CRDO: Acquired DustPhotonics, expanding into silicon photonics and next gen optical connectivity. Optical remains the pick and shovel trade under the AI compute trade.

• $AEHR: Received a record $41M production order from its lead hyperscale customer for package level burn in of custom AI chips. Custom silicon validation at scale.

• $AVGO: Extended partnership with Meta to support multi gigawatts of AI infrastructure. Custom silicon theme reinforced at the highest level.

• $BIRD: Executed a $50M convertible facility and announced expansion into AI compute. Small name, but telling that legacy consumer brands are pivoting into the compute narrative to chase a multiple.

Space and Satellite

• $AMZN / $GSAT: Signed an $11.57B deal for satellite services, positioning Kuiper as a direct Starlink competitor. Big headline for $GSAT and the broader satellite ecosystem.

Regulatory and Market Structure

• $HOOD / $BULL: Popped after the SEC approved FINRA’s plan to replace the PDT rule. Genuinely big deal for retail broker economics and volume. $HOOD is the cleanest way to play it.

• $HIMS: Jumped on news the U.S. is moving forward with plans to reassess popular peptides. GLP-1 adjacent regulatory tailwind.

Earnings

• $NFLX: Beat Q1 but shares slid on soft guidance plus a co founder exit. Character test for mega cap tech earnings.

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Watchlist

There are an abundance of strong uptrending charts and strong themes this week, too many to cover in a single post. I keep a fully updated watchlist inside the Valhalla Portal, along with the screening presets and tools to find these setups in real time.

For this section I’ll focus on the more actionable setups going into the week, rather than charts that are already extended and uptrending (like $INTC).

Given the extreme strength of the tape and the fact that we’ve just exited a correction, I think it’s more likely we see shorter consolidation flags rather than lengthy new bases. My base case is to treat any first pullback to the 10ema as a valid buy spot in the strongest names (think $NBIS type action).

Data Centers

• $NBIS, $CRWV: The two largest data center pure plays on the board. Looking to buy the first pullback after last week’s strong upthrust.

  

• $CIFR, $WULF: Already had their pullback to the 10ema and look to be setting up for new highs.

  

• $BZAI: Microcap name that caught a bid on data center news last week.

Tech

• $GOOGL, $MRVL: Both had news over the weekend but the charts are already extended.

  

• $ARM: Major news a couple of weeks ago, needs to clear the big daily base over $180. Could be starting its move here.

  

• $MU, $SNDK: Likely building out some consolidation before the next leg. Memory remains a strong sector.

  

• $BE: News gap and hold of the $200 area will be the key tell for continuation.

  

Quantum

• $XNDU, $INFQ, $IONQ: All had large moves last week and are due pullbacks. Could be potential short trades this week.

  

• $CRML: Caught news last week on heavy volume, worth watching.

  

Others

• $MSTR: Large move Friday alongside BTC, remains the cleanest proxy.

• $AVEX: IPO’d Friday, worth adding to the radar for early action.

  

Plenty of other charts worth watching that I haven’t detailed here. Optical computing remains a strong theme with $LITE, $AAOI, and $LWLG all setting up well. Space stocks continue to lead, $RKLB broke out on Thursday while $LUNR and $PL are already in established uptrends. $HOOD also one to keep close on the PDT rule catalyst. Many more charts could also become actionable as the week develops.

Closing Thoughts

The tape has done exactly what the strongest markets do. It absorbed a gap down, reclaimed the loss, and then extended to fresh all time highs on broadening participation. A 13 session Nasdaq streak, CTAs flipping to buyers, VIX back into the 17s, and top 1% momentum readings all point the same direction. Medium and longer term, the setup is as constructive as it’s been all year.

Short term is where it gets more interesting. After a run like this, some digestion is the base case rather than the risk. The Hormuz headlines over the weekend may or may not be the catalyst, but the tape was due a breather regardless. That’s why the watchlist above leans into first pullback setups rather than chasing names that are already extended. In the strongest names, a pullback to the 10ema is a gift rather than a warning.

My job this week is to stay patient on the already extended leaders, stay ready on the names setting up shorter consolidation flags, and let the market tell me which themes want to take the next leg. Data centers, memory, space, and optical all have the structure to keep leading.

Stay focused on where the opportunity sets up for the next leg.

P.S.

If you haven’t checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it’s where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I’ll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal

Last week I wrote about character change - the market’s refusal to sell despite relentless macro pressure - and flagged it as a reason to stay constructive. This week delivered the follow-through. Best weekly performance since November, leading stocks breaking out, and a ceasefire that gave the bulls exactly the catalyst they needed.

• S&P 500 +3.6% | Nasdaq +4.7% | Dow +3.0%

Macro News

Ceasefire

• April 8: U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• Crude futures dropped 12% on the day

Strait still closed

• Maritime traffic remained severely constrained post-ceasefire

• Only a handful of vessels transited April 8-9

• Iran continued charging tolls exceeding $1M per ship

Lebanon complication

• Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon after the ceasefire announcement

• Iran’s IRGC declared shipping through the Strait had stopped in response, citing a ceasefire violation

CPI (Friday)

• March CPI: +3.3% YoY vs. 2.4% in February

• Monthly gain: +0.9% -- energy drove nearly three-quarters of the increase; gasoline +21.2%

• Core CPI: +2.6% YoY, more contained

Weekend developments (post-close)

• Saturday: JD Vance announced Iran negotiations had broken down

• Trump declared a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz

• SPX weekend futures on Hyperliquid showing -2%

The important level I’m watching is the 6650 area, where we broke out from on the ceasefire news. If we start to trade under that level, it’ll start to look like a failed breakout and a negative sign. If price comes back and holds 6650 as support, that can be a potential a higher low structure and the uptrend stays intact.

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Watchlist

Earnings

Earnings season is starting, with banks dominating the early part of the week, $GS Monday, then $JPM, $WFC, $C Tuesday, followed by $BAC and $MS Wednesday. Also on the calendar: $JNJ, $BLK Tuesday, $ASML Wednesday - a key read on semiconductor equipment demand - and $TSM Thursday, which will be closely watched for any commentary on AI-driven chip demand and tariff exposure. $NFLX also reports Thursday.

Catalysts

Before diving into the watchlist, I wanted to briefly mention the Valhalla Portal. One of the features I’ve been building is an activity feed that logs every major catalyst I flag throughout the week - a running record of what moved markets and why. Useful for staying oriented without having to piece it all together from memory. Screenshot from this week below.

Some of the major catalysts this week:

• Trump finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate - boost for health insurers ($CVS, $UNH, $HUM)

• Intel joins Terafab project with SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla to help refactor silicon fab technology ($INTC)

• Meta debuts first major AI model

• Meta commits to spending additional 21B with CoreWeave

• Google expands partnership with Intel for AI chips ($GOOGL, $INTC)

• CoreWeave announces multi-year agreement with Anthropic ($CRWV)

Space Sector

Remains a high-conviction theme. Multiple setups forming across the group as anticipation around the SpaceX IPO continues to build.

could be ready to break to new highs soon after consolidating in this base.

emerging into new 52 week highs.

recent IPO with strong momentum off the lows.

Still watching: $RKLB, $ASTS, $SIDU, $DXYZ.

Data Centers / AI Infrastructure

The CRWV-Meta and CRWV-Anthropic deals dominated headlines this week. Anthropic’s revenue growth - has eased concerns that AI is a capex bubble with no revenue to show. Two successful companies now reduce the single-name OpenAI concentration risk across the sector.

• $NBIS - acting like the group leader. Big weekly base, huge revenue acceleration, liquid. Top pick in the space.

• $CRWV - large base, significant revenue backlog. More debt-loaded than NBIS but a liquid name that can run.

• $HUT, $WULF - honorable mentions, no clean setups yet. On watch for pullbacks.

  

Software

Continues to break down. Fresh lows across the board. Two scenarios: if it keeps going straight down, a short-term bounce becomes playable. If it consolidates here, the next leg lower sets up. Watching for one or the other to develop.

Tracking: $NOW, $PLTR, $IGV, $SNOW, $NET, $OPEN.

Other

• $CAR - keeps grinding higher. Watching for an obvious reversal signal. Would rather be late than early on this one.

  

Low Floats

$SKYQ, $AIXI - on radar.

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Closing Thoughts

This week was unambiguously strong. Leading stocks broke out to new highs, breadth was broad, and the AI sector delivered positive catalysts with the CRWV-Meta and CRWV-Anthropic deals reframing the capex narrative. The tape had the feel of a market that wanted to go higher.

The weekend breakdown in negotiations and Trump’s naval blockade announcement is the first real stress test of that thesis. How the market responds on the open will be telling. Do bulls buy the dip immediately and defend 6650? Or does the breakout fail and we retrace the entire ceasefire move?

That answer shapes the next several weeks. A swift recovery keeps the higher low structure intact and adds conviction to the new uptrend. A breakdown below 6650 and we have to treat last week as a relief rally in a still-broken market. Watch how price behaves at that level. The quality of the response matters this week.

P.S.

If you haven't checked out the Valhalla Portal yet, it's where I track catalysts, setups, and market activity in real time - a live feed of everything that moves the tape, built for the community. I'll be doing a dedicated post soon walking through all the features in detail, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, you can check it out here:

Valhalla Portal